Chase
WR · CIN vs TEN
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points19.2pts
Smith
WR · PHI @ WAS
Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ETLatest report: DNP · Hamstring
Projected points5.7ptsUsage estimate
12.5 if he plays · 46% to play
Start
Bench
DeVonta Smith or Ja'Marr Chase: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Ja'Marr Chase over DeVonta Smith.
- Ahead by
- +13.5pts
- over Smith
- Confidence
- High
- DeVonta Smith may not play (about 46% to play)
- Started
- 99%
- of leagues
Smith's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
An injury tag on Ja'Marr Chase or a bigger role for DeVonta Smith.
Risk
DeVonta Smith missed practice (hamstring): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. DeVonta Smith missed his last game (hamstring). The Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
ChaseStartWR · CIN vs TENUsually 18.3+0.9pts this week
Helps him
- +1.6ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 81.0 receiving yards, above his usual 64.8.
- +0.7ptscatchesHis lines put him at 6.5 catches, above his usual 5.8.
- 29.5team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 29.5 points, a high scoring spot.
- 15.0floorA quiet week still projects to about 15.0 points.
Hurts him
- −1.4ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.76 touchdowns, below his usual 1.00.
SmithFirst outWR · PHI @ WASUsually 17.3−11.6pts this week
Helps him
- 32%targetsHe draws 32% of his team’s targets.
- 10.2per gameHe sees 10.2 targets a game.
Hurts him
- −9.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 9.0 points off his projection.
- −2.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- 17.0team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 17.0 points.
- 0.0floorA quiet week could drop to about 0.0 points.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionChase: 19.2 (best)Smith: 5.7
TD pointsof the projectionChase: 4.6Smith: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekChase: 0.76Smith: Our estimate
Projected team pointsChase: 29.5 (best)Smith: 17.0
Red zone targetsper gameChase: 1.3 (best)Smith: 0.8
Role
Snap shareChase: 80%Smith: 87% (best)
Usage worthptsChase: 13.0Smith: 17.4 (best)
Target shareChase: 23%Smith: 32% (best)
Targets / gameChase: 7.5Smith: 10.3 (best)
Air yards shareChase: 27%Smith: 48% (best)
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsChase: AboveSmith: Above
WOPRChase: 0.56Smith: 0.81 (best)
RZ target shareChase: 26%Smith: 27% (best)
Catch rateChase: 71% (best)Smith: 63%
SeparationChase: 2.7 yds (best)Smith: 2.4 yds
YAC over expectedChase: +1.6 (best)Smith: +0.3
Usage worth vs scoredChase: Earned by usage 13.0Scored 16.2Smith: Earned by usage 17.4Scored 17.3
Vacated targets this weekChase: 6.8 (best)Smith: 0.0
Inside 10 target shareChase: 24%Smith: 33% (best)
Range
FloorChase: 15.0 (best)Smith: 0.0
CeilingChase: 27.4 (best)Smith: 9.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerChase: 31%Smith: 17%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Chase: 46% (best)Smith: 29%
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterChase: 15%Smith: 8% (best)
SteadinessChase: Very steady (best)±8.6 ptsSmith: Steady±8.4 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionChase: A (best)2026, 7 gmSmith: B2026, 6 gm
Game scriptChase: Expected to lead (best)Smith: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterChase: 1.0 (best)Smith: 1.3
Defense funnelChase: NeutralSmith: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedChase: 23rd (soft)Smith: 28th (soft) (best)
Starting QBChase: Burrow (Active)Smith: McKee (Active)
Opp defender outChase: None listedSmith: Kinlaw (DT)
Roof / surfaceChase: OpenturfSmith: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleChase: NormalSmith: Normal
Opp paceChase: 32nd (slow)Smith: 12th (average) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameChase: 3.319th (average)Smith: 3.8 (best)26th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedChase: 73% (best)32nd (soft)Smith: 67%28th (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgChase: 14.2Smith: 20.2 (best)
Last 5 avgChase: 18.8 (best)Smith: 17.3
vs seasonChase: −2.0 (Cooling)Smith: +3.0 (best)
Yards per route runChase: 2.08Smith: 2.52 (best)
Receiving aDOTChase: 9.3Smith: 12.2
Target share trendChase: Left Week 4 hurtSmith: Steady
Games since injuryChase: None recentlySmith: 0
Crowd
Started in leaguesChase: 99% (best)Smith: 49%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterChase: WR4 (best)Smith: WR63
Yards linereceivingChase: 81.0Smith: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
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