Smith
WR · PHI @ WAS
Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ETLatest report: DNP · Hamstring
Projected points5.7ptsUsage estimate
12.5 if he plays · 46% to play
Burden
WR · CHI @ SEA
Kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET
Projected points12.1pts
Start if active
Bench
DeVonta Smith or Luther Burden III: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start DeVonta Smith. If he's inactive, start Luther Burden III.
- Ahead by
- +0.4pts
- over Burden if he plays
- Confidence
- Depends on inactives
- DeVonta Smith may not play (about 46% to play)
- Started
- 48%
- of leagues
Smith's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If DeVonta Smith is inactive, start Luther Burden III.
Risk
DeVonta Smith missed practice (hamstring): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. If he sits, start Luther Burden III. DeVonta Smith missed his last game (hamstring). The Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
SmithStart if activeWR · PHI @ WASUsually 17.3−11.6pts this week
Helps him
- 32%targetsHe draws 32% of his team’s targets.
- 10.2per gameHe sees 10.2 targets a game.
- WASvs WRsEdgeWAS is the 11th softest defense for receivers.
Hurts him
- −9.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 9.0 points off his projection.
- −2.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- 17.0team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 17.0 points.
- 0.0floorA quiet week could drop to about 0.0 points.
BurdenIf he sitsWR · CHI @ SEAUsually 13.9−1.8pts this week
Helps him
- 23.7last weekHe caught 4 for 130 yards and a touchdown last week (23.7 points).
Hurts him
- −1.9ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 51.0 receiving yards, below his usual 70.1.
- −0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 4.5 catches, below his usual 5.0.
- SEAvs WRsEdgeSEA is the 2nd toughest defense for receivers.
- 61%snapsHe plays only 61% of snaps, so his work comes in rotation.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionSmith: 5.7Burden: 12.1 (best)
TD pointsof the projectionSmith: Our estimateBurden: 2.1
Expected TDsthis weekSmith: Our estimateBurden: 0.35
Projected team pointsSmith: 17.0Burden: 21.8 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameSmith: 0.0Burden: 0.1 (best)
Red zone carriesper gameSmith: 0.0Burden: 0.4 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameSmith: 0.8Burden: 1.3 (best)
Role
Snap shareSmith: 87% (best)Burden: 61%
Usage worthptsSmith: 17.4 (best)Burden: 12.8
Touch shareSmith: 15% (best)Burden: 10%
Target shareSmith: 32% (best)Burden: 21%
Touches / gameSmith: 6.5 (best)Burden: 6.1
Targets / gameSmith: 10.3 (best)Burden: 6.7
Air yards shareSmith: 48% (best)Burden: 26%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsSmith: AboveBurden: In line
WOPRSmith: 0.81 (best)Burden: 0.49
RZ target shareSmith: 27% (best)Burden: 25%
Catch rateSmith: 63%Burden: 74% (best)
SeparationSmith: 2.4 ydsBurden: 3.1 yds (best)
YAC over expectedSmith: +0.3Burden: +0.5 (best)
Usage worth vs scoredSmith: Earned by usage 17.4Scored 17.3Burden: Earned by usage 12.8Scored 13.9
Rush yards / gameSmith: 0.0Burden: 4.1 (best)
Points from rushingSmith: 0%Burden: 3%
Vacated targets this weekSmith: 0.0Burden: 2.0 (best)
High value touches / gameSmith: 6.5 (best)Burden: 5.1
Goal line carry shareSmith: 0%Burden: 4% (best)
Red zone touches / gameSmith: 0.8Burden: 1.7 (best)
Rush success rateSmith: 0 carriesBurden: 50%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Smith: 0 carriesBurden: 0%
Inside 10 target shareSmith: 33% (best)Burden: 20%
Rushing points / gameSmith: 0.0 pts / gameBurden: 0.4 pts / game (best)
Rushing floorSmith: 0.0 pts / gameBurden: 0.2 pts / game (best)
Range
FloorSmith: 0.0Burden: 7.4 (best)
CeilingSmith: 9.5Burden: 18.8 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerSmith: 17%Burden: 12%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Smith: 29% (best)Burden: 14%
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterSmith: 8% (best)Burden: 14%
SteadinessSmith: Steady±8.4 ptsBurden: Very steady (best)±6.5 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionSmith: B (best)2026, 6 gmBurden: F2026, 7 gm
Game scriptSmith: Expected to trailBurden: Expected to trail (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterSmith: 1.3 (best)Burden: 1.7
Defense funnelSmith: NeutralBurden: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedSmith: 28th (soft) (best)Burden: 1st (tough)
Starting QBSmith: McKee (Active)Burden: Williams (Active)
Opp defender outSmith: Kinlaw (DT)Burden: None listed
Roof / surfaceSmith: OpengrassBurden: Openturf
Rest / scheduleSmith: NormalBurden: 11 days rest
Opp paceSmith: 12th (average)Burden: 9th (fast) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameSmith: 3.8 (best)26th (soft)Burden: 2.911th (average)
Opp catch rate allowedSmith: 67% (best)28th (soft)Burden: 56%3rd (tough)
Opp rush yds allowedSmith: 14th (average) (best)Burden: 6th (tough)
Opp stuff rateSmith: 18% (best)17th (average)Burden: 22%4th (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedSmith: 3.8 (best)8th (tough)Burden: 3.42nd (tough)
Form
Last 3 avgSmith: 20.2 (best)Burden: 16.7
Last 5 avgSmith: 17.3 (best)Burden: 16.3
vs seasonSmith: +3.0 (best)Burden: +2.8 (Rising)
Yards per carrySmith: 0 carriesBurden: 3.6
Carries / gameSmith: 0.0Burden: 1.1 (best)
Yards per route runSmith: 2.52Burden: 2.87 (best)
Receiving aDOTSmith: 12.2Burden: 8.5
Target share trendSmith: SteadyBurden: Steady
Games since injurySmith: 0Burden: None recently
Crowd
Started in leaguesSmith: 49%Burden: 85% (best)
Nuvela position ranklower is betterSmith: WR63Burden: WR21 (best)
Yards linereceivingSmith: Our estimateBurden: 51.0
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.