Worthy
WR · KC @ DEN
Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET
Projected points8.7pts
Smith
WR · PHI @ WAS
Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ETLatest report: DNP · Hamstring
Projected points5.7ptsUsage estimate
12.5 if he plays · 46% to play
Lean
Bench
DeVonta Smith or Xavier Worthy: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Lean Xavier Worthy over DeVonta Smith.
- Ahead by
- +3.0pts
- over Smith
- Confidence
- Moderate
- DeVonta Smith may not play (about 46% to play)
- Started
- 42%
- of leagues
Smith's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
An injury tag on Xavier Worthy or a bigger role for DeVonta Smith.
Risk
DeVonta Smith missed practice (hamstring): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. DeVonta Smith missed his last game (hamstring). The Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
WorthyLeanWR · KC @ DENUsually 8.6+0.1pts this week
Helps him
- +0.7ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.29 touchdowns, above his usual 0.17.
Hurts him
- −0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 3.5 catches, below his usual 4.0.
- toughestper targetEdgeDEN allows plenty of WR chances because receivers see plenty of targets on them; per target they’re tough (1.41 pts, toughest).
- 5.1floorA quiet week could drop to about 5.1 points.
SmithFirst outWR · PHI @ WASUsually 17.3−11.6pts this week
Helps him
- 32%targetsHe draws 32% of his team’s targets.
- 10.2per gameHe sees 10.2 targets a game.
- WASvs WRsEdgeWAS is the 11th softest defense for receivers.
Hurts him
- −9.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 9.0 points off his projection.
- −2.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- 17.0team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 17.0 points.
- 0.0floorA quiet week could drop to about 0.0 points.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionWorthy: 8.7 (best)Smith: 5.7
TD pointsof the projectionWorthy: 1.7Smith: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekWorthy: 0.29Smith: Our estimate
Projected team pointsWorthy: 20.8 (best)Smith: 17.0
Red zone targetsper gameWorthy: 0.7Smith: 0.8 (best)
Role
Snap shareWorthy: 82%Smith: 87% (best)
Usage worthptsWorthy: 9.9Smith: 17.4 (best)
Target shareWorthy: 20%Smith: 32% (best)
Targets / gameWorthy: 5.8Smith: 10.3 (best)
Air yards shareWorthy: 27%Smith: 48% (best)
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsWorthy: In lineSmith: Above
WOPRWorthy: 0.48Smith: 0.81 (best)
RZ target shareWorthy: 15%Smith: 27% (best)
Catch rateWorthy: 69% (best)Smith: 63%
SeparationWorthy: 3.4 yds (best)Smith: 2.4 yds
YAC over expectedWorthy: −0.5Smith: +0.3 (best)
Usage worth vs scoredWorthy: Earned by usage 9.9Scored 8.6Smith: Earned by usage 17.4Scored 17.3
Vacated targets this weekWorthy: 3.8 (best)Smith: 0.0
Inside 10 target shareWorthy: 18%Smith: 33% (best)
Range
FloorWorthy: 5.1 (best)Smith: 0.0
CeilingWorthy: 14.4 (best)Smith: 9.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerWorthy: 12%Smith: 17%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Worthy: 0%Smith: 29% (best)
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterWorthy: 46%Smith: 8% (best)
SteadinessWorthy: Steady (best)±4.2 ptsSmith: Steady±8.4 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionWorthy: D2026, 7 gmSmith: B (best)2026, 6 gm
Game scriptWorthy: Expected to lead (best)Smith: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterWorthy: 1.4Smith: 1.3 (best)
Defense funnelWorthy: NeutralSmith: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedWorthy: 17th (average)Smith: 28th (soft) (best)
Starting QBWorthy: Mahomes (Active)Smith: McKee (Active)
Opp defender outWorthy: Elliss (LB)Smith: Kinlaw (DT)
Roof / surfacegrassWorthy: OpenSmith: Open
Rest / scheduleWorthy: NormalSmith: Normal
Opp paceWorthy: 30th (slow)Smith: 12th (average) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameWorthy: 3.319th (average)Smith: 3.8 (best)26th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedWorthy: 54%2nd (tough)Smith: 67% (best)28th (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgWorthy: 9.8Smith: 20.2 (best)
Last 5 avgWorthy: 9.4Smith: 17.3 (best)
vs seasonWorthy: +1.2 (Rising)Smith: +3.0 (best)
Yards per route runWorthy: 1.28Smith: 2.52 (best)
Receiving aDOTWorthy: 8.7Smith: 12.2
Target share trendWorthy: CoolingSmith: Steady
Games since injuryWorthy: None recentlySmith: 0
Crowd
Started in leaguesWorthy: 43%Smith: 49% (best)
Nuvela position ranklower is betterWorthy: WR44 (best)Smith: WR63
Yards linereceivingWorthy: 33.0Smith: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.