Jefferson
WR · MIN vs MIA
Proj pts
12.3pts
opportunity
Hollins
WR · NE vs BUF
Proj pts
12.2pts
market
Justin Jefferson or Mack Hollins: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Justin Jefferson over Mack Hollins by 0.1. Justin Jefferson leads at 12.3. Mack Hollins is the first one out, 0.2 short.
Crowd: 72% of managers started Jefferson.
Availability & news
Justin JeffersonPractice: DNP
Jefferson (ankle) officially didn't participate in Thursday's practice.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)
Highlights
Pros
- Alpha target share31% target share
Cons
- Shaky floor5.3 floor
Cons
- Thin volume4.6 targets/g
- Tough matchupTough · D vs WR
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Jefferson 19, Hollins 6.
Jefferson (Practice: DNP): “Jefferson (ankle) officially didn't participate in Thursday's practice.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.
Latest game on the card: Jefferson 5.2, Hollins 14.7 (PPR points).
Why Justin Jefferson
Start Justin Jefferson — projects 12.3, an even matchup vs MIA.
Justin Jefferson projects 12.3 points on a 5.3–17.6 range. The matchup grades as neutral against MIA. Usage: targets / game at 8.3. Net: start Justin Jefferson this week.
Working for Jefferson: Alpha target share (31% target share).
Working against Jefferson: Shaky floor (5.3 floor).
Where Jefferson leads the head-to-head: Projection (12.3 vs 12.2); Ceiling (17.6 vs 14.5); Target share (31% vs 16%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C vs D); Implied team total (24.5 vs 20.8); Last 3 avg (15.0 vs 9.2); Last 5 avg (14.1 vs 10.4); vs season (+3.7 vs +0.6); Consistency (54% vs 45%); Targets / game (8.3 vs 4.6); Snap share (94% vs 68%); Red zone targets (19 vs 6).
Why Mack Hollins
Sit Mack Hollins — projects 12.2, a tough matchup vs BUF.
Mack Hollins projects 12.2 points on a 6.8–14.5 range. The matchup grades as tough against BUF. Usage: targets / game at 4.6. Net: bench Mack Hollins this week.
Working against Hollins: Thin volume (4.6 targets/g), Tough matchup (Tough · D vs WR).
Where Hollins leads the head-to-head: Floor (6.8 vs 5.3); Boom rate (21% vs 18%); Bust rate (14% vs 18%).
Recent form
Justin Jefferson's last 5 games: PPR points 7, 18.4, 31.2, 8.5, 5.2 (oldest to newest).
Mack Hollins's last 4 games: PPR points 13.9, 9.1, 3.8, 14.7 (oldest to newest).
Jefferson has already beaten Hollins's 12.2 projection in 2 of his 5; Hollins has beaten Jefferson's 12.3 in 2 of his 4.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Justin Jefferson (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.
Mack Hollins (NE) faces BUF, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.8, spread +7.0.
What flips it
Jefferson's edge is 0.1 points (12.3 to 12.2). Hollins's ceiling (14.5) clears Jefferson's projection, so a big game from Hollins flips it. Jefferson's floor (5.3) sits under Hollins's projection, so a quiet game from Jefferson flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Justin Jefferson comparisons
- Justin Jefferson or Ladd McConkey12.3 · 12.2
- Justin Jefferson or KC Concepcion12.3 · 12.1
- Carnell Tate or Justin Jefferson12.8 · 12.3
- DK Metcalf or Justin Jefferson12.8 · 12.3
More Mack Hollins comparisons
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Ladd McConkey or Mack Hollins12.2 · 12.2
- Courtland Sutton or Mack Hollins12.0 · 12.2
- Khalil Shakir or Mack Hollins11.9 · 12.2
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- Jakobi Meyers or Khalil Shakir11.8 · 11.9
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)