Pittman
WR · PIT vs CLE
Final pts
3.5pts
10.7 proj · −7.2
Raymond
WR · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
10.5pts
market
Kalif Raymond or Michael Pittman: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Michael Pittman over Kalif Raymond by 0.2. Michael Pittman leads at 10.7. Kalif Raymond is the first one out, 0.2 short.
Crowd: 52% of managers started Raymond.
Highlights
Pros
- Every-down role86% of snaps
Cons
- Tough matchupTough · D- vs WR
- Shaky floor3.6 floor
Pros
- Heating up15.5 last 3
Cons
- Low target share6% target share
- Thin volume2.0 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is consistency: Pittman 39%, Raymond 2%.
Latest game on the card: Pittman 3.6, Raymond 21 (PPR points).
Why Michael Pittman
Start Michael Pittman — projects 10.7, a tough matchup vs CLE, but the role is cooling.
Michael Pittman projects 10.7 points on a 3.6–12.0 range. The matchup grades as tough against CLE. Usage: targets / game at 6.5. Net: start Michael Pittman this week.
Working for Pittman: Every-down role (86% of snaps).
Working against Pittman: Tough matchup (Tough · D- vs WR), Shaky floor (3.6 floor).
Where Pittman leads the head-to-head: Projection (10.7 vs 10.5); Target share (21% vs 6%); Consistency (39% vs 2%); Boom rate (29% vs 20%); Targets / game (6.5 vs 2.0); Snap share (86% vs 37%); Red zone targets (18 vs 2).
Why Kalif Raymond
Sit Kalif Raymond — projects 10.5, an even matchup vs NYJ, with a rising role.
Kalif Raymond projects 10.5 points on a 8.3–16.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NYJ. Usage: targets / game at 2.0. Net: bench Kalif Raymond this week.
Working for Raymond: Heating up (15.5 last 3).
Working against Raymond: Low target share (6% target share), Thin volume (2.0 targets/g).
Where Raymond leads the head-to-head: Floor (8.3 vs 3.6); Ceiling (16.9 vs 12.0); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C vs D-); Implied team total (23.5 vs 20.5); Last 3 avg (15.5 vs 5.2); Last 5 avg (11.2 vs 5.3); vs season (+2.1 vs -1.7); Bust rate (30% vs 35%); Rest / schedule (Short week (5d) vs Short week (4d)).
Recent form
Michael Pittman's last 5 games: PPR points 7.2, 3.6, 3.1, 8.8, 3.6 (oldest to newest).
Kalif Raymond's last 5 games: PPR points 1.5, 8.2, 16.4, 9, 21 (oldest to newest).
Pittman has already beaten Raymond's 10.5 projection in 0 of his 5; Raymond has beaten Pittman's 10.7 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Michael Pittman (PIT) played CLE (final: CLE 27 – 24 PIT). The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.5, spread -2.5.
Kalif Raymond (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Pittman's edge is 0.2 points (10.7 to 10.5). Raymond's ceiling (16.9) clears Pittman's projection, so a big game from Raymond flips it. Pittman's floor (3.6) sits under Raymond's projection, so a quiet game from Pittman flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Kalif Raymond comparisons
- Kalif Raymond or Makai Lemon10.5 · 10.7
- Kalif Raymond or Ryan Flournoy10.5 · 10.7
More Michael Pittman comparisons
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- Michael Pittman or Ryan Flournoy10.7 · 10.7
- Michael Pittman or Wan'Dale Robinson10.7 · 10.8
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- Jakobi Meyers or Khalil Shakir11.8 · 11.9
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)