New

Week8 · 2026

Starting1

Scoring

Pass TD

New comparison

Lean

Mahomes

QB · KC @ DEN

Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET

Projected points15.8pts

First out

Stafford

QB · LA vs LAC

Kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET

Projected points14.8pts

Lean

Bench

Matthew Stafford or Patrick Mahomes: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Lean Patrick Mahomes over Matthew Stafford.

Ahead by: +1.0pts; over Stafford
Confidence: Moderate; Lean
Started: 59%; of leagues

Flips if

Start Matthew Stafford instead if you need a big week: he has more big weeks (30% of his games to 26%).

Risk

The risk: Mahomes threw for 165 yards without a touchdown last week (6.0 points).

Highlights

Injuries as of Fri 2:00 PM ET

MahomesLeanQB · KC @ DENUsually 16.7−0.8pts this week

Helps him

OutEllissEdgeHe faces a Broncos defense without linebacker Jonah Elliss.

Hurts him

−0.9ptspass yardsHis lines put him at 223.5 passing yards, below his usual 245.7.
4th toughestper passEdgeDEN allows plenty of QB chances because teams throw a lot against them; per pass they’re tough (0.40 pts, 4th toughest).
23%pressureEdgeThe DEN pass rush gets pressure on 23% of dropbacks.

StaffordFirst outQB · LA vs LACUsually 17.6−2.9pts this week

Helps him

41.7dropbacksHe drops back 41.7 times a game.
30%big weeks30% of his games have been big weeks.
3games in a rowHe has thrown two or more touchdowns in 3 straight games.

Hurts him

−2.0ptspass TDsHis lines put him at 1.50 passing TDs, below his usual 2.00.
−1.3ptspass yardsHis lines put him at 250.5 passing yards, below his usual 284.1.
LACvs QBsEdgeLAC is the 3rd toughest defense for quarterbacks.
11.3floorA quiet week could drop to about 11.3 points.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Scoring

Projection15.814.8

Rush TD pointsof the projection0.90.3

Rush TDs expectedthis week0.150.05

Projected team points20.825.8

Goal line carriesper game0.00.1

Red zone carriesper game0.30.4

Pass attempts / game31.839.7

Role

Snap share100%98%

Touch share7%4%

Touches / game3.22.0

Yards per attempt7.77.2

Pass TD rate5%5%

Rush yards / game11.82.6

Points from rushing13%1%

Rushing points / game2.2 pts / game0.3 pts / game

Rushing floor1.7 pts / game0.3 pts / game

Designed runs / game0.20.3

Scrambles / game2.00.6

Dropbacks / game35.241.7

Designed runs inside the 10 / game0.00.1

Sacks per dropback3%4%

INT rate2.1%2.5%

Pass aDOT6.07.9

High value touches / game0.20.1

Goal line carry share0%9%

Red zone touches / game0.30.4

Rush success rate54%50%

Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)0%0%

Range

Floor11.611.3

Ceiling23.820.7

Points from TDssteadier when lower6%0%

Big weeks (25+ pts)26%30%

Dud weeks (under 12 pts)lower is better28%22%

SteadinessVery steady±8.4 ptsVery steady±7.9 pts

Matchup

Matchup gradevs his positionC-2026, 7 gmD2026, 6 gm

Game scriptExpected to leadExpected to lead

Opp takeaways / gamelower is better1.41.7

Defense funnelNeutralNeutral

Opp pass yds allowed17th (average)7th (tough)

Opp sacks / game3.01.8

Opp defender outElliss (LB)None listed

Roof / surfaceOpengrassDometurf

Rest / scheduleNormalNormal

Opp pace30th (slow)15th (average)

Opp pressure rate23%8th (tough)23%11th (average)

Pressure faced24%15%

Opp rush yds allowed28th (soft)21st (average)

Opp stuff rate18%14th (average)14%25th (soft)

Opp yards per carry allowed4.724th (soft)4.317th (average)

Opp deep targets allowed / game3.715th (average)2.52nd (tough)

Opp catch rate allowed62%3rd (tough)70%26th (soft)

Form

Last 3 avg11.220.6

Last 5 avg15.718.5

vs season−5.5 (Cooling)+2.9 (Rising)

Yards per carry3.71.3

Carries / game3.22.0

Pass volume trendSteadyCooling

Crowd

Started in leagues59%78%

Nuvela position ranklower is betterQB15QB21

Yards linepassing223.5250.5

Deciding on someone else?

Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.

Sit or start?