Jones
RB · MIN @ DET
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Limited · Knee
Projected points12.6ptsUsage estimate
15.6 if he plays · 80% to play
Gordon
RB · MIA vs NE
Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET
Projected points11.8pts
Start · check inactives
Bench
Aaron Jones or Ollie Gordon II: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Aaron Jones. If he's inactive, start Ollie Gordon II.
- Ahead by
- +3.8pts
- over Gordon if he plays
- Confidence
- Depends on inactives
- Aaron Jones may not play (about 80% to play)
- Started
- 43%
- of leagues
Jones's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If Aaron Jones is inactive, start Ollie Gordon II.
Risk
Aaron Jones was limited in practice (knee): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. If he sits, start Ollie Gordon II. Weather in Ollie Gordon II's game: Outdoor · 73F, 6 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
JonesStart · check inactivesRB · MIN @ DETUsually 14.0−1.4pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
Hurts him
- −3.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 3.0 points off his projection.
- −1.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- −1.0ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
GordonIf he sitsRB · MIA vs NEUsually 13.1−1.3pts this week
Helps him
- +0.7ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 9.5 receiving yards, above his usual 2.8.
- 1.7inside the 5He averages 1.7 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
- +5.8last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 5.8 points above his season average.
- 4games in a rowHe has scored a touchdown in 4 straight games.
Hurts him
- −1.5ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.55 touchdowns, below his usual 0.80.
- −0.7ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 60.5 rushing yards, below his usual 67.8.
- NEvs RBsEdgeNE is the 2nd toughest defense for running backs.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionJones: 12.6 (best)Gordon: 11.8
TD pointsof the projectionJones: Our estimateGordon: 3.3
Expected TDsthis weekJones: Our estimateGordon: 0.55
Projected team pointsJones: 21.3 (best)Gordon: 18.0
Goal line carriesper gameJones: 0.2Gordon: 1.7 (best)
Red zone carriesper gameJones: 1.8Gordon: 3.3 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameJones: 0.5 (best)Gordon: 0.0
Role
Snap shareJones: 65% (best)Gordon: 52%
Usage worthptsJones: 13.9 (best)Gordon: 11.2
Touch shareJones: 41% (best)Gordon: 30%
Target shareJones: 11% (best)Gordon: 6%
Touches / gameJones: 19.7 (best)Gordon: 13.0
Targets / gameJones: 3.2 (best)Gordon: 1.3
Vacated touches this weekJones: 0.0Gordon: 15.3 (best)
High value touches / gameJones: 2.7Gordon: 2.8 (best)
Goal line carry shareJones: 50%Gordon: 71% (best)
Red zone touches / gameJones: 2.3Gordon: 3.3 (best)
Rush success rateJones: 35%Gordon: 38% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Jones: 1.0%Gordon: 4.2% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredJones: Earned by usage 13.9Scored 12.3Gordon: Earned by usage 11.2Scored 10.9
Rush yards / gameJones: 72.7 (best)Gordon: 56.5
Points from rushingJones: 75%Gordon: 89%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsJones: BelowGordon: 0 RZ targets
WOPRJones: 0.17 (best)Gordon: 0.07
RZ target shareJones: 14% (best)Gordon: 0%
Inside 10 target shareJones: 0%Gordon: 0%
Catch rateJones: 68%Gordon: 75% (best)
Rushing points / gameJones: 9.3 pts / gameGordon: 9.7 pts / game (best)
Rushing floorJones: 6.6 pts / game (best)Gordon: 5.0 pts / game
Range
FloorJones: 9.6 (best)Gordon: 8.3
CeilingJones: 18.7 (best)Gordon: 16.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerJones: 16%Gordon: 37%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Jones: 0%Gordon: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterJones: 22%Gordon: 0% (best)
SteadinessJones: Very steady±4.8 ptsGordon: Very steady (best)±1.8 pts · 4 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionJones: C (best)2026, 6 gmGordon: D2026, 7 gm
Game scriptJones: Expected to trail (best)Gordon: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterJones: 1.0Gordon: 1.0
Defense funnelJones: NeutralGordon: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedJones: 12th (average) (best)Gordon: 8th (tough)
Backfield roleJones: LeadGordon: Lead
WeatherJones: IndoorsGordon: Outdoor73F, 6 mph wind, 100% rain
Roof / surfaceJones: DometurfGordon: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleJones: NormalGordon: Normal
Opp paceJones: 4th (fast) (best)Gordon: 16th (average)
Opp stuff rateJones: 18%16th (average)Gordon: 13% (best)28th (soft)
Opp yards per carry allowed12th (average)Jones: 4.1Gordon: 4.1
Opp pass yds allowedJones: 32nd (soft) (best)Gordon: 19th (average)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Jones: 0.0Gordon: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedJones: 74%12th (average)Gordon: 82% (best)20th (average)
Starting QBJones: Murray (Active)Gordon: Willis (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgJones: 13.0Gordon: 16.7 (best)
Last 5 avgJones: 12.8Gordon: 13.1 (best)
vs seasonJones: +0.7 (Steady)Gordon: +5.8 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryJones: 4.2Gordon: 4.7 (best)
Carries / gameJones: 17.5 (best)Gordon: 12.0
Yards per route runJones: 0.85 (best)Gordon: 0.22
Receiving aDOTJones: −0.3Gordon: −3.3
Touch share trendJones: Left Week 7 hurtGordon: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesJones: 43%Gordon: 88% (best)
Nuvela position ranklower is betterJones: RB20 (best)Gordon: RB23
Yards linerushingJones: Our estimateGordon: 60.5
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.