Week8 · 2026

Starting1

Scoring

New comparison

Toss-up

Godwin

WR · TB vs ATL

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Rest day

Projected points8.4pts

First out

Johnston

WR · LAC @ LA

Kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET

Projected points7.6ptsUsage estimate

Toss-up

Bench

Chris Godwin Jr. or Quentin Johnston: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Toss-up. Chris Godwin Jr. gets the nod over Quentin Johnston.

Ahead by: +0.8pts; over Johnston
Confidence: Lower; The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Started: 38%; of leagues

Johnston's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Case for Johnston

The case for Johnston is a bigger receiving workload (0.40 to 0.32) and more of the downfield throws (25% of the air yards to 9%).

Flips if

If the weather in Chris Godwin Jr.'s game turns worse, start Quentin Johnston.

Risk

Weather in Chris Godwin Jr.'s game: Outdoor · 73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff. Quentin Johnston has played 1 game since missing time, so his recent numbers lean on his 2025 games.

Highlights

Injuries as of Fri 2:00 PM ET

GodwinToss-upWR · TB vs ATLUsually 7.6+0.8pts this week

Helps him

+1.8ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.30 touchdowns, above his usual 0.00.
more targets this weekEdgeWith Egbuka out, more targets should come his way this week.

Hurts him

−0.5ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 29.5 receiving yards, below his usual 34.7.
4.9per gameHe sees only 4.9 targets a game.

JohnstonFirst outWR · LAC @ LAUsually 5.0+2.7pts this week

Helps him

+3.2ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.

Hurts him

15%targetsHe draws only 15% of his team’s targets.
4.4per gameHe sees only 4.4 targets a game.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Scoring

Projection8.47.6

TD pointsof the projection1.8Our estimate

Expected TDsthis week0.30Our estimate

Projected team points23.019.3

Red zone targetsper game0.40.0

Role

Snap share82%81%

Usage worthpts7.87.4

Target share20%15%

Targets / game4.94.4

Air yards share9%25%

Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsBelow0 RZ targets

WOPR0.320.40

RZ target share11%0%

Catch rate79%36%

Separation4.8 yds2.9 yds

YAC over expected+1.3−1.3

Usage worth vs scoredEarned by usage 7.8Scored 7.6Earned by usage 7.4Scored 5.0

Vacated targets this week9.24.0

Inside 10 target share0%0%

Range

Floor6.14.0

Ceiling11.713.8

Points from TDssteadier when lower0%0%

Big weeks (20+ pts)4%8%

Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is better34%61%

SteadinessSteady±4.2 ptsUp & down±6.1 pts

Matchup

Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmB-C

Game scriptExpected to leadExpected to trail

Opp takeaways / gamelower is better1.30.9

Defense funnelNeutralNeutral

Opp pass yds allowed29th (soft)4th (tough)

Starting QBMayfield (Active)Herbert (Active)

Opp defender outNone listedGarrett (LB)

WeatherOutdoor73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rainIndoors

Roof / surfaceOpengrassDometurf

Rest / scheduleNormalOff a bye

Opp pace21st (average)3rd (fast)

Opp deep targets allowed / game4.730th (soft)2.15th (tough)

Opp catch rate allowed64%22nd (soft)53%1st (tough)

Form

Last 3 avg7.16.2

Last 5 avg7.25.0

vs season−0.5 (Steady)+1.3 (Rising)

Yards per route run1.331.31

Receiving aDOT3.514.0

Target share trendRisingSteady

Games since injuryNone recently1

Crowd

Started in leagues39%Not widely started

Nuvela position ranklower is betterWR47WR50

Yards linereceiving29.5Our estimate

Deciding on someone else?

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