New
Week8 · 2026
Starting1
Scoring
New comparison
Toss-up

Sutton

WR · DEN vs KC

Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET

Projected points8.6ptsUsage estimate

First out

Coleman

WR · BUF vs BAL

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET

Projected points6.7pts

Toss-up

Bench

Courtland Sutton or Keon Coleman: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Toss-up. Courtland Sutton gets the nod over Keon Coleman.

Ahead by
+1.9pts
over Coleman
Confidence
Lower
The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate

Sutton's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Flips if

Start Keon Coleman instead if you want the easier matchup (the 5th softest defense for receivers, while Sutton faces the 7th toughest defense for receivers).

Risk

The risk: Sutton faces the Chiefs, the 7th toughest defense for receivers.

Highlights

Injuries as of Fri 2:00 PM ET
SuttonToss-upWR · DEN vs KCUsually 5.5+3.0pts this week

Helps him

  1. +3.7ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.

Hurts him

  1. −0.5ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
  2. 4.7per gameHe sees only 4.7 targets a game.
  3. KCvs WRsEdgeKC is the 7th toughest defense for receivers.
ColemanFirst outWR · BUF vs BALUsually 10.9−4.2pts this week

Helps him

  1. 28.8team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 28.8 points, a high scoring spot.
  2. BALvs WRsEdgeBAL is the 5th softest defense for receivers.
  3. +4.8last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 4.8 points above his season average.
  4. 3games in a rowHe has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games.

Hurts him

  1. −1.8ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 29.5 receiving yards, below his usual 47.2.
  2. −1.7ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.21 touchdowns, below his usual 0.50.
  3. −0.7ptscatchesHis lines put him at 2.5 catches, below his usual 3.2.
  4. 15%targetsHe draws only 15% of his team’s targets.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Stat
Scoring
ProjectionSutton: 8.6 (best)Coleman: 6.7
TD pointsof the projectionSutton: Our estimateColeman: 1.3
Expected TDsthis weekSutton: Our estimateColeman: 0.21
Projected team pointsSutton: 19.8Coleman: 28.8 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameSutton: 1.0 (best)Coleman: 0.8
Role
Snap shareSutton: 77% (best)Coleman: 68%
Usage worthptsSutton: 8.6 (best)Coleman: 7.4
Target shareSutton: 17% (best)Coleman: 15%
Targets / gameSutton: 4.7 (best)Coleman: 4.0
Air yards shareSutton: 30% (best)Coleman: 24%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsSutton: In lineColeman: Above
WOPRSutton: 0.48 (best)Coleman: 0.40
RZ target shareSutton: 27% (best)Coleman: 15%
Catch rateSutton: 48%Coleman: 79% (best)
SeparationSutton: 2.8 ydsColeman: 2.9 yds (best)
YAC over expectedSutton: +0.6 (best)Coleman: −0.6
Usage worth vs scoredSutton: Earned by usage 8.6Scored 5.5Coleman: Earned by usage 7.4Scored 10.9
Vacated targets this weekSutton: 3.0 (best)Coleman: 0.0
Inside 10 target shareSutton: 33% (best)Coleman: 17%
Range
FloorSutton: 4.9 (best)Coleman: 3.5
CeilingSutton: 13.1 (best)Coleman: 11.4
Points from TDssteadier when lowerSutton: 16%Coleman: 28%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Sutton: 8%Coleman: 10% (best)
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterSutton: 44%Coleman: 40% (best)
SteadinessSutton: Up & down±5.9 ptsColeman: Up & down (best)±6.8 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionSutton: D2026, 6 gmColeman: A- (best)2026, 7 gm
Game scriptSutton: Expected to trailColeman: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterSutton: 1.7Coleman: 0.9 (best)
Defense funnelSutton: NeutralColeman: Pass
Opp pass yds allowedSutton: 12th (average)Coleman: 15th (average) (best)
Starting QBSutton: Nix (Active)Coleman: Allen (Active)
Opp defender outSutton: None listedColeman: Robinson (LB)
Roof / surfaceSutton: OpengrassColeman: Openturf
Rest / scheduleSutton: NormalColeman: Off a bye
Opp paceSutton: 24th (slow)Coleman: 17th (average) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameSutton: 3.2 (best)17th (average)Coleman: 2.911th (average)
Opp catch rate allowedSutton: 57%5th (tough)Coleman: 67% (best)29th (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgSutton: 7.1Coleman: 15.7 (best)
Last 5 avgSutton: 6.0Coleman: 12.8 (best)
vs seasonSutton: +1.5 (Rising)Coleman: +4.8 (Rising) (best)
Yards per route runSutton: 0.95Coleman: 2.34 (best)
Receiving aDOTSutton: 11.1Coleman: 14.3
Target share trendSutton: SteadyColeman: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesSutton: Not widely startedColeman: 47%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterSutton: WR45 (best)Coleman: WR55
Yards linereceivingSutton: Our estimateColeman: 29.5

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