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Week8 · 2026

Starting1

Scoring

New comparison

Toss-up

Sutton

WR · DEN vs KC

Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET

Projected points8.6ptsUsage estimate

First out

Flournoy

WR · DAL vs ARI

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET

Projected points9.1pts

Toss-up

Bench

Courtland Sutton or Ryan Flournoy: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Toss-up. Courtland Sutton gets the nod over Ryan Flournoy.

Confidence: Lower; The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate

Sutton's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Case for Flournoy

The case for Flournoy is an offense expected to score more (30.8 points to 19.8) and surer hands (68% of his targets caught to 48%).

Flips if

Start Ryan Flournoy instead if you need a safe week: he has a safer floor (5.8 to 4.9).

Risk

The risk: Sutton faces the Chiefs, the 7th toughest defense for receivers.

Highlights

Injuries as of Fri 2:00 PM ET

SuttonToss-upWR · DEN vs KCUsually 5.5+3.0pts this week

Helps him

+3.7ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.

Hurts him

−0.5ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
4.7per gameHe sees only 4.7 targets a game.
KCvs WRsEdgeKC is the 7th toughest defense for receivers.

FlournoyFirst outWR · DAL vs ARIUsually 9.1+0.0pts this week

Helps him

+1.0ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.31 touchdowns, above his usual 0.14.
30.8team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 30.8 points, a high scoring spot.
+4.3last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 4.3 points above his season average.

Hurts him

−0.7ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 36.5 receiving yards, below his usual 43.4.
softestper targetEdgeARI allows few WR chances because few passes go to receivers against them; per target they’re soft (2.00 pts, softest).
5.8floorA quiet week could drop to about 5.8 points.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Scoring

Projection8.69.1

TD pointsof the projectionOur estimate1.9

Expected TDsthis weekOur estimate0.31

Projected team points19.830.8

Red zone targetsper game1.01.1

Role

Snap share77%74%

Usage worthpts8.69.6

Target share17%15%

Targets / game4.75.7

Air yards share30%13%

Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsIn lineIn line

WOPR0.480.31

RZ target share27%17%

Catch rate48%68%

Separation2.8 yds3.5 yds

YAC over expected+0.6−0.3

Usage worth vs scoredEarned by usage 8.6Scored 5.5Earned by usage 9.6Scored 9.1

Vacated targets this week3.00.0

Inside 10 target share33%13%

Range

Floor4.95.8

Ceiling13.113.8

Points from TDssteadier when lower16%10%

Big weeks (20+ pts)8%0%

Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is better44%29%

SteadinessUp & down±5.9 ptsSteady±4.6 pts · 7 games

Matchup

Matchup gradevs his positionD2026, 6 gmB-2026, 7 gm

Game scriptExpected to trailExpected to lead

Opp takeaways / gamelower is better1.71.1

Defense funnelNeutralPass

Opp pass yds allowed12th (average)21st (average)

Starting QBNix (Active)Prescott (Active)

Opp defender outNorman-Lott (DT)None listed

Roof / surfaceOpengrassRetractable roofturf

Rest / scheduleNormalNormal

Opp pace24th (slow)2nd (fast)

Opp deep targets allowed / game3.217th (average)3.115th (average)

Opp catch rate allowed57%5th (tough)60%11th (average)

Form

Last 3 avg7.113.3

Last 5 avg6.010.4

vs season+1.5 (Rising)+4.3 (Rising)

Yards per route run0.951.46

Receiving aDOT11.16.8

Target share trendSteadySteady

Crowd

Started in leaguesNot widely started47%

Nuvela position ranklower is betterWR45WR41

Yards linereceivingOur estimate36.5

Deciding on someone else?

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