Flowers
WR · BAL @ BUF
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points18.1pts
Smith
WR · PHI @ WAS
Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ETLatest report: DNP · Hamstring
Projected points5.7ptsUsage estimate
12.5 if he plays · 46% to play
Start
Bench
DeVonta Smith or Zay Flowers: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Zay Flowers over DeVonta Smith.
- Ahead by
- +12.4pts
- over Smith
- Confidence
- High
- DeVonta Smith may not play (about 46% to play)
- Started
- 99%
- of leagues
Smith's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
An injury tag on Zay Flowers or a bigger role for DeVonta Smith.
Risk
DeVonta Smith missed practice (hamstring): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. DeVonta Smith missed his last game (hamstring). The Week 8 injury report isn't out yet. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
FlowersStartWR · BAL @ BUFUsually 20.2−2.1pts this week
Helps him
- 11.4floorA quiet week still projects to about 11.4 points.
- 50%big weeks50% of his games have been big weeks.
Hurts him
- −1.1ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 82.5 receiving yards, below his usual 93.5.
- −1.0ptscatchesHis lines put him at 6.5 catches, below his usual 7.5.
SmithFirst outWR · PHI @ WASUsually 17.3−11.6pts this week
Helps him
- 10.2per gameHe sees 10.2 targets a game.
- 87%snapsHe is on the field for 87% of snaps.
Hurts him
- −9.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 9.0 points off his projection.
- −2.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- 17.0team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 17.0 points.
- 0.0floorA quiet week could drop to about 0.0 points.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionFlowers: 18.1 (best)Smith: 5.7
TD pointsof the projectionFlowers: 3.0Smith: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekFlowers: 0.50Smith: Our estimate
Projected team pointsFlowers: 25.8 (best)Smith: 17.0
Red zone targetsper gameFlowers: 1.2 (best)Smith: 0.8
Role
Snap shareFlowers: 65%Smith: 87% (best)
Usage worthptsFlowers: 15.1Smith: 17.4 (best)
Target shareFlowers: 31%Smith: 32% (best)
Targets / gameFlowers: 8.8Smith: 10.3 (best)
Air yards shareFlowers: 33%Smith: 48% (best)
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsFlowers: AboveSmith: Above
WOPRFlowers: 0.69Smith: 0.81 (best)
RZ target shareFlowers: 27%Smith: 27%
Catch rateFlowers: 75% (best)Smith: 63%
SeparationFlowers: 3.1 yds (best)Smith: 2.4 yds
YAC over expectedFlowers: +2.0 (best)Smith: +0.3
Usage worth vs scoredFlowers: Earned by usage 15.1Scored 20.4Smith: Earned by usage 17.4Scored 17.3
Vacated targets this weekFlowers: 0.7 (best)Smith: 0.0
Inside 10 target shareFlowers: 8%Smith: 33% (best)
Range
FloorFlowers: 11.4 (best)Smith: 0.0
CeilingFlowers: 27.1 (best)Smith: 9.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerFlowers: 15%Smith: 17%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Flowers: 50% (best)Smith: 29%
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterFlowers: 0% (best)Smith: 8%
SteadinessFlowers: Very steady (best)±6.8 pts · 6 gamesSmith: Steady±8.4 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 6 gmFlowers: A+ (best)Smith: B
Game scriptFlowers: Expected to trail (best)Smith: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterFlowers: 1.0 (best)Smith: 1.3
Defense funnelFlowers: NeutralSmith: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedFlowers: 31st (soft) (best)Smith: 28th (soft)
Starting QBFlowers: Huntley (Active)Smith: McKee (Active)
Opp defender outFlowers: None listedSmith: Kinlaw (DT)
Roof / surfaceFlowers: OpenturfSmith: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleFlowers: NormalSmith: Normal
Opp paceFlowers: 24th (slow)Smith: 12th (average) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameFlowers: 3.217th (average)Smith: 3.8 (best)26th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedFlowers: 64%21st (average)Smith: 67% (best)28th (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgFlowers: 18.3Smith: 20.2 (best)
Last 5 avgFlowers: 19.2 (best)Smith: 17.3
vs seasonFlowers: −2.0 (Cooling)Smith: +3.0 (best)
Yards per route runFlowers: 4.08 (best)Smith: 2.52
Receiving aDOTFlowers: 8.2Smith: 12.2
Target share trendFlowers: SteadySmith: Steady
Games since injuryFlowers: None recentlySmith: 0
Crowd
Started in leaguesFlowers: 99% (best)Smith: 49%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterFlowers: WR5 (best)Smith: WR63
Yards linereceivingFlowers: 82.5Smith: Our estimate
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