Addison
WR · MIN vs MIA
Proj pts
16.3pts
market
Golden
WR · GB vs TB
Proj pts
15.3pts
market
Jordan Addison or Matthew Golden: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Jordan Addison. Bench Matthew Golden. Jordan Addison leads at 16.3. Matthew Golden is the first one out, 1.0 short.
Crowd: 59% of managers started Addison, 76% started Golden.
Highlights
Pros
- Every-down role85% of snaps
- Spike upside21.4 ceiling
Cons
- Shaky floor3.4 floor
Pros
- Spike upside26.2 ceiling
- Big-play upside31% boom weeks
Cons
- Low target share12% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Addison 13, Golden 2.
Latest game on the card: Addison 20, Golden 21 (PPR points).
Why Jordan Addison
Start Jordan Addison — projects 16.3, an even matchup vs MIA, with a rising role.
Jordan Addison projects 16.3 points on a 3.4–21.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against MIA. Usage: targets / game at 5.6. Net: start Jordan Addison this week.
Working for Addison: Every-down role (85% of snaps), Spike upside (21.4 ceiling).
Working against Addison: Shaky floor (3.4 floor).
Where Addison leads the head-to-head: Projection (16.3 vs 15.3); Floor (3.4 vs 3.0); Target share (18% vs 12%); Implied team total (24.5 vs 21.0); Consistency (42% vs 27%); Bust rate (21% vs 23%); Targets / game (5.6 vs 3.1); Snap share (85% vs 53%); Red zone targets (13 vs 2).
Why Matthew Golden
Sit Matthew Golden — projects 15.3, an even matchup vs TB, with a rising role.
Matthew Golden projects 15.3 points on a 3.0–26.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: bench Matthew Golden this week.
Working for Golden: Spike upside (26.2 ceiling), Big-play upside (31% boom weeks).
Working against Golden: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Golden leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (26.2 vs 21.4); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs C); Last 3 avg (15.4 vs 8.0); Last 5 avg (10.3 vs 7.7); vs season (+3.6 vs +0.7); Boom rate (31% vs 21%).
Recent form
Jordan Addison's last 5 games: PPR points 12.5, 1.8, 0, 4.1, 20 (oldest to newest).
Matthew Golden's last 5 games: PPR points 3.2, 1.8, 15.5, 9.8, 21 (oldest to newest).
Addison has already beaten Golden's 15.3 projection in 1 of his 5; Golden has beaten Addison's 16.3 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Jordan Addison (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.
Matthew Golden (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.0, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Addison's edge is 1 points (16.3 to 15.3). Golden's ceiling (26.2) clears Addison's projection, so a big game from Golden flips it. Addison's floor (3.4) sits under Golden's projection, so a quiet game from Addison flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Jordan Addison comparisons
- Jordan Addison or Michael Wilson16.3 · 16.4
- Jordan Addison or Tee Higgins16.3 · 16.8
- Christian Watson or Jordan Addison16.8 · 16.3
- Jordan Addison or Rashee Rice16.3 · 15.7
More Matthew Golden comparisons
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Malik Nabers or Matthew Golden15.1 · 15.3
- Matthew Golden or Rashee Rice15.3 · 15.7
- Jalen Coker or Matthew Golden14.4 · 15.3
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- Jakobi Meyers or Khalil Shakir11.8 · 11.9
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)