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Week8 · 2026

Starting1

Scoring

New comparison

Toss-up

Downs

WR · IND @ JAX

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET

Projected points10.3ptsUsage estimate

First out

Flournoy

WR · DAL vs ARI

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET

Projected points9.1pts

Toss-up

Bench

Josh Downs or Ryan Flournoy: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Toss-up. Josh Downs gets the nod over Ryan Flournoy.

Ahead by: +1.2pts; over Flournoy
Confidence: Lower; The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Started: 41%; of leagues

Downs's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Flips if

Start Ryan Flournoy instead if you want an offense expected to score more (30.8 points to 18.3).

Risk

The risk: Downs caught 2 for 18 yards last week (3.8 points).

Highlights

Injuries as of Fri 1:00 PM ET

DownsToss-upWR · IND @ JAXUsually 8.2+2.1pts this week

Helps him

+1.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
+1.2ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
JAXvs WRsEdgeJAX is the 4th softest defense for receivers.

Hurts him

−0.5ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
18.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 18.3 points.
43%dud weeks43% of his games have been dud weeks.

FlournoyFirst outWR · DAL vs ARIUsually 9.1+0.0pts this week

Helps him

+1.0ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.31 touchdowns, above his usual 0.14.
30.8team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 30.8 points, a high scoring spot.
+4.3last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 4.3 points above his season average.

Hurts him

−0.7ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 36.5 receiving yards, below his usual 43.4.
softestper targetEdgeARI allows few WR chances because few passes go to receivers against them; per target they’re soft (2.00 pts, softest).
5.8floorA quiet week could drop to about 5.8 points.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Scoring

Projection10.39.1

TD pointsof the projectionOur estimate1.9

Expected TDsthis weekOur estimate0.31

Projected team points18.330.8

Red zone targetsper game0.71.1

Role

Snap share82%74%

Usage worthpts11.49.6

Target share20%15%

Targets / game6.65.7

Air yards share29%13%

Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsBelowIn line

WOPR0.500.31

RZ target share23%17%

Catch rate57%68%

Separation2.4 yds3.5 yds

YAC over expected+0.7−0.3

Usage worth vs scoredEarned by usage 11.4Scored 8.2Earned by usage 9.6Scored 9.1

Vacated targets this week3.50.0

Inside 10 target share0%13%

Range

Floor6.25.8

Ceiling16.513.8

Points from TDssteadier when lower0%10%

Big weeks (20+ pts)0%0%

Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is better43%29%

SteadinessVery steady±4.0 pts · 7 gamesSteady±4.6 pts · 7 games

Matchup

Matchup gradevs his positionA2026, 6 gmB-2026, 7 gm

Game scriptExpected to trailExpected to lead

Opp takeaways / gamelower is better1.51.1

Defense funnelNeutralPass

Opp pass yds allowed30th (soft)21st (average)

Starting QBJones (Active)Prescott (Active)

Roof / surfaceOpengrassRetractable roofturf

Rest / scheduleNormalNormal

Opp pace23rd (slow)2nd (fast)

Opp deep targets allowed / game4.027th (soft)3.115th (average)

Opp catch rate allowed65%24th (soft)60%11th (average)

Form

Last 3 avg6.713.3

Last 5 avg7.510.4

vs season−1.5 (Cooling)+4.3 (Rising)

Yards per route run1.391.46

Receiving aDOT10.76.8

Target share trendSteadySteady

Crowd

Started in leagues41%47%

Nuvela position ranklower is betterWR32WR41

Yards linereceivingOur estimate36.5

Deciding on someone else?

Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.

Sit or start?