Burden
WR · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
14pts
market
Wicks
WR · PHI vs LA
Proj pts
13.8pts
market
Dontayvion Wicks or Luther Burden III: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Luther Burden III over Dontayvion Wicks by 0.2. Luther Burden III leads at 14.0. Dontayvion Wicks is the first one out, 0.2 short.
Crowd: 67% of managers started Burden, 35% started Wicks.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share13% target share
- Thin volume4.0 targets/g
Cons
- Low target share13% target share
- Thin volume3.5 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: Burden 17%, Wicks 8%.
Latest game on the card: Burden 19.8, Wicks 5.2 (PPR points).
Why Luther Burden III
Start Luther Burden III — projects 14.0, an even matchup vs NYJ.
Luther Burden III projects 14.0 points on a 7.6–17.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NYJ. Usage: targets / game at 4.0. Net: start Luther Burden III this week.
Working against Burden: Low target share (13% target share), Thin volume (4.0 targets/g).
Where Burden leads the head-to-head: Projection (14.0 vs 13.8); Floor (7.6 vs 3.4); Ceiling (17.9 vs 15.2); Implied team total (23.5 vs 19.5); Last 3 avg (11.8 vs 11.0); Last 5 avg (14.2 vs 8.7); vs season (+2.3 vs +0.3); Consistency (23% vs 0%); Boom rate (17% vs 8%); Targets / game (4.0 vs 3.5); Red zone targets (7 vs 4).
Why Dontayvion Wicks
Sit Dontayvion Wicks — projects 13.8, an even matchup vs LA, with a rising role.
Dontayvion Wicks projects 13.8 points on a 3.4–15.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: targets / game at 3.5. Net: bench Dontayvion Wicks this week.
Working against Wicks: Low target share (13% target share), Thin volume (3.5 targets/g).
Where Wicks leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs C); Snap share (47% vs 40%).
Recent form
Luther Burden III's last 5 games: PPR points 27.8, 7.5, 9.5, 6.2, 19.8 (oldest to newest).
Dontayvion Wicks's last 4 games: PPR points 1.7, 15.3, 12.4, 5.2 (oldest to newest).
Burden has already beaten Wicks's 13.8 projection in 2 of his 5; Wicks has beaten Burden's 14 in 1 of his 4.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Luther Burden III (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
Dontayvion Wicks (PHI) faces LA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 19.5, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Burden's edge is 0.2 points (14 to 13.8). Wicks's ceiling (15.2) clears Burden's projection, so a big game from Wicks flips it. Burden's floor (7.6) sits under Wicks's projection, so a quiet game from Burden flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Dontayvion Wicks comparisons
- Dontayvion Wicks or Jameson Williams13.8 · 13.6
- Dontayvion Wicks or Stefon Diggs13.8 · 13.5
- Devaughn Vele or Dontayvion Wicks13.2 · 13.8
- Dontayvion Wicks or Terry McLaurin13.8 · 14.4
More Luther Burden III comparisons
- Luther Burden III or Terry McLaurin14.0 · 14.4
- Jameson Williams or Luther Burden III13.6 · 14.0
- Jalen Coker or Luther Burden III14.4 · 14.0
- Luther Burden III or Stefon Diggs14.0 · 13.5
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)