nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 5 · SUNDAY · FINAL

Vikings vs Saints Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Oct 11 · 10:00 AM PT
Venue
Caesars Superdome
Conditions
Indoor · dome

The game in numbers

  • -1.9Pass rate over expected
  • 1stPace rank, slate
  • DomeConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Vikings21.521.1−0.4
Saints20.517.1−3.4
Game total41.538.2−3.3

The Saints carry 89% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

148 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props144

Vikings · Away7 players

RUSHING YARDS
17.5MARKET+12.1WIDE29.6Tank01 projection
Actual 51.0 · final resultPASS + RUSH YARDS
231.5MARKET+8.1In line with market239.6Tank01 projection
Actual 280.0 · final resultCOMPLETIONS
20.5MARKET+0.3In line with market20.8Tank01 projection
Actual 24.0 · final resultPASS ATTEMPTS
31.5MARKET+0.3In line with market31.8Tank01 projection
Actual 30.0 · final resultPASSING YARDS
210.5MARKET−0.5In line with market210.0Tank01 projection
Actual 229.0 · final resultLONGEST RUSH
10.5MARKET+2.6WIDE13.1Nuvela
Actual 18.0 · final resultLONGEST COMPLETION
31.5MARKET—GAP— We don't have enough to project this market yet.—
Actual 32.0 · final result1ST TD
5%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
17%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Didn't score · final resultLAST TD
5%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultINTERCEPTIONS
0.5MARKET46%OVER · NO-VIG IMPLIED—MARKET ONLY
Actual 0.0 · final resultPASSING TDS
1.5MARKET39%OVER · NO-VIG IMPLIED—MARKET ONLY
Actual 1.0 · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 21 props

Saints · Home7 players

Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 21 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
41.5MARKET−3.3GAP38.238.2
Season range 12-69
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
MIN by 2.5MARKET+1.6GAP4.1MIN by 4.1
Season range 1-21

Team props2

Vikings · Away1 market

VikingsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
21.5MARKET−0.4GAP21.1Nuvela
Season range 9-39

Saints · Home1 market

SaintsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
20.5MARKET−3.4GAP17.1Nuvela
Season range 24-30