RB · New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara
vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4 · Dome
- Line
- 37.5
- Rushing Yards
- Nuvela
- 38.9
- our projection
- Difference
- +1.4
- +4%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 11 of 11
- Line since open
- −3, from 40.5
- Projections updated
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 44% | 6% | −39% | 0 of 5 | 49% | −4% |
| Rushing Yards | 37.5 | 41.8 | +4.3 | 1 of 5 | 40 | −2.5 |
| Rush Attempts | 11.5 | 11.7 | +0.2 | 1 of 5 | 11.5 | level |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 57.5 | 57.1 | −0.4 | 1 of 5 | 60 | −2.5 |
| Receptions | 3.5 | 2.6 | −0.9 | 1 of 5 | 3.5 | level |
| Receiving Yards | 16.5 | 15.3 | −1.2 | 1 of 5 | 16.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 13% | 6% | −7% | 0 of 5 | 13% | level |
| 2+ TDs | 3% | 0% | −3% | 0 of 5 | — | — |
| Longest Rush | 9.5 | 8.2 | −1.3 | 2 of 5 | 10.5 | −1 |
| Last TD | 11% | 0% | −11% | 0 of 5 | 13% | −1% |
| Longest Reception | 9.5 | 11.5 | +2 | 1 of 5 | 8.5 | +1 |
How the line moved
- Wed 5:17 AM40.5opened
- Wed 5:17 AM40.50
- Wed 5:17 PM39.5−1
- Wed 8:01 PM38.5−1
- Thu 5:18 PM36.5−2
- Sat 5:16 AM37.5+1Kamara figures to serve as the Saints' top running back for as long as Travis Etienne (hamstring) is on injured reserve, starting with Monday's game against the Falcons, John DeShazier of the team's official site reports.
Opened 40.5, now 37.5. The move is with our read, which is the thing worth checking before the gap is a reason.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate — read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 642 games−0.1
- The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 642 games−0.1
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 640 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 642 games0
A role-level tendency across the league — a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Rushing Yards, last 2
- Consensus line
- 37.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 38.9
- +1.4 on the line
- Above the line
- 0 of 2
- 0% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 2
- each week's own close
- Median
- 25.5
- regular season
- Average
- 25.5
- −12 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 15 | 0%0/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 15 | 20%1/5 | 40%2/5 |
| Season | 25.5 | 0%0/2 | 50%1/2 |
| Last season | 31 | 46%5/11 | 27%3/11 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 2
- of 2
- Average
- 25.5
- yards
- Median
- 25.5
- yards
- Above 37.5
- 0 of 2
- 0% of the sample
- vs the full 2
- 0
- yards
Sample under 8 games — treat as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Rushing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 2 | @ BAL | 15 | 21.5 | −6.5 |
| Week 3 | vs LV | 36 | 23.5 | +12.5 |
Availability
Practice participation through the week, and the teammates whose status changes his workload.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- Active
- Snap share, last game
- 32%
- Games missed this season
- 1
Workload dependencies
- Travis Etienne46% of the backfield carries · Shares his room — every snap here is one out of his own carries.
- Kendre Miller20% of the backfield carries · Shares his room — every snap here is one out of his own carries.
- CJ Donaldson6% of the backfield carries · Shares his room — every snap here is one out of his own carries.
- Jordyn TysonWR · leg · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Ir
- Mason TiptonWR · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Out
- Moliki MatavaoTE · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Ir
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
NO · New Orleans Saints
ATL · Atlanta Falcons
What this report suggests
- Names listed
- 8
- 5 NO · 3 ATL
- Ruled out
- 7
- won’t play
- Questionable
- 1
- decided at kickoff
- Touch his workload
- 3
- Jordyn Tyson, Mason Tipton +1
- His coverage
- —
- not tracked yet
3 names on these lists reach him directly. Jordyn Tyson, Mason Tipton +1 — flagged in Availability — are the teammates whose status changes his own workload. The rest reach him through the game, not his role.
Across both clubs, 7 ruled out and 1 questionable. A thinner defence argues for more possessions — volume, which is most of a yards prop — though it cuts both ways, since trailing throws more and leading throws less.
Counted from the two lists above rather than typed, so this can’t disagree with them. It reads the report; it does not predict who plays.
Key research points
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
The market lists Alvin Kamara at 37.5 rushing yards. He has cleared this line in 0 of 2 games. Our projection, built from his own games and never from the line, is 38.85. ATL ranks 1st of 32 in carries faced and 1st in rushing yards allowed. Research, not a pick — the call is yours.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Research context for this week
The factors actually in play this week, and which one swings it.
4 factors in play
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it.
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 48
- combined
- NO implied total
- 25
- favored
- ATL implied total
- 23
- underdog
- Projected script
- Close
- tight spread
- Pace
- 28s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- Indoors
- no wind factor
- Conditions
- Dome
- climate controlled
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 74
- 3-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 48.3
- 65% pass
- His carries
- 11.9
- projected this game
- Red-zone trips
- 4.3
- 3-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +1.4
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on — the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Atlanta Falcons defends each position — fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest — and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What Atlanta Falcons actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 15.3 | 22.1 | 1st of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 48 | 91.4 | 1st of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 3.1 | 4.1 | 4th of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing — the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 23% | 16% | 3rd of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards — where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 4% | 10% | 2nd of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 32% | 23% | 5th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 18.2 | 21st of 32 |
| RBhis position | 12.8 | 4th of 32 |
| WR | 38.5 | 27th of 32 |
| TE | 17.2 | 24th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rush yds |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor2025 · Wk 10 | 244 |
| Breece Hall2025 · Wk 13 | 68 |
| Audric Estimé2025 · Wk 18 | 63 |
| TreVeyon Henderson2025 · Wk 9 | 55 |
| Christian McCaffrey2025 · Wk 7 | 129 |
Game log · season
Most recent first — his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Rush yds | YPC | Long | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | vs LV | 9 | 36 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | @ BAL | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Rushing Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 37.5 | −110 | −120 |
| BetOnline | 38.5 | −114 | −114 |
| BetRivers | 37.5 | −114 | −117 |
| Bovada | 37.5 | −120 | −110 |
| DraftKings | 37.5 | −117 | −108 |
| FanDuel | 37.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.