nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 3 · SUNDAY · FINAL

Vikings vs Buccaneers Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 27 · 1:05 PM PT
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor · 84F, 7 mph wind

The game in numbers

  • -4Pass rate over expected
  • 13thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Vikings21.522.5+1.0
Buccaneers20.519.2−1.3
Game total42.541.6−0.9

The two sides carry the disagreement roughly evenly, so this is a read on the game rather than on either offence.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

154 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props150

Vikings · Away7 players

RUSHING YARDS
20.5MARKET+9.8WIDE30.3Tank01 projection
Actual 17.0 · final resultPASS + RUSH YARDS
236.5MARKET+7.8In line with market244.3Tank01 projection
Actual 185.0 · final resultPASS ATTEMPTS
30.5MARKET−0.7In line with market29.8Tank01 projection
Actual 29.0 · final resultPASSING YARDS
215.5MARKET−1.5In line with market214.0Tank01 projection
Actual 168.0 · final resultCOMPLETIONS
19.5MARKET−0.1In line with market19.4Tank01 projection
Actual 15.0 · final resultLONGEST RUSH
9.5MARKET · 1 BOOK+3.4WIDE12.9Nuvela
Actual 12.0 · final resultLONGEST COMPLETION
31.5MARKET—GAP— We don't have enough to project this market yet.—
Actual 41.0 · final result1ST TD
6%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
21%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Didn't score · final resultLAST TD
6%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultINTERCEPTIONS
0.5MARKET52%OVER · NO-VIG IMPLIED—MARKET ONLY
Actual 1.0 · final resultPASSING TDS
1.5MARKET41%OVER · NO-VIG IMPLIED—MARKET ONLY
Actual 1.0 · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 19 props

Buccaneers · Home8 players

Depth and touchdown only · 6 players · 18 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
42.5MARKET−0.9GAP41.641.6
Season range 12-61
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
MIN by 1.5MARKET+1.8GAP3.3MIN by 3.3
Season range 4-17

Team props2

Vikings · Away1 market

VikingsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
21.5MARKET+1.0GAP22.5Nuvela
Season range 9-39

Buccaneers · Home1 market

BuccaneersTEAM TOTAL POINTS
20.5MARKET−1.3GAP19.2Nuvela
Season range 19-27