TE · Tampa Bay Buccaneers#87
Payne Durham
Updated
Payne Durham (TE, TB) props for Week 7 at Carolina Panthers: lines post as books open. Season averages and hit rates on every market we track.
@ Carolina Panthers · Week 7
- Line
- —
- Receiving Yards
- Projection
- —
- No line is posted for this market this week.
- Difference
- —
- Lines checked Stale: our last odds check is over an hour old, with a kickoff inside a day
- Markets posted
- 3 of 7
- Projections updated
Highlights
No book has posted this line yet.Highlights appear when one does.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Tampa Bay is missing three receivers, which frees targets. Across from him, Carolina is missing three linebackers, the players who usually cover tight ends.
DurhamNo injury designation
Around himTampa Bay Buccaneers
5 of 22 touch Durham
This week
- OutEmeka EgbukaWR · concussion, footFrees targets
- QuestionableBaker MayfieldQB · thumbChanges who throws to him
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRDennis HoustonWRFrees targets
- IRJalen McMillanWRFrees targets
Off the report this week
- ClearedDavid SillsWR · was Out in Wk 6Back on the field
Across from himCarolina Panthers
6 of 25 touch Durham
This week
- OutJaelan PhillipsLB · hamstringCovers tight ends
- QuestionableBam Martin-ScottLB · hamstringCovers tight ends
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRJaycee HornCBIn pass coverage
- IRMike JacksonCBIn pass coverage
- IRNic ScourtonLBCovers tight ends
Show 1 more
- IRThomas IncoomLB · calfCovers tight ends
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2225ShowHide
TB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
22 listed- Antoine Winfield Jr.SAF · ribOut
- Emeka EgbukaWR · concussion, footOut
- Luke GoedekeOT · calfOut
- Baker MayfieldQB · thumbQuestionable
- Christian RozeboomLB · fingerIR
- Dennis HoustonWR · Not specifiedIR
- Jalen McMillanWR · Not specifiedIR
- Josh HayesDB · Not specifiedIR
- Mohamed KamaraLB · Not specifiedIR
- Xavier WilliamsSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Ayden GarnesCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Benjamin MorrisonCB · Last listed Wk 6: Doubtful (quadricep)Cleared
- David SillsWR · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)Cleared
- Jacob ParrishCB · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
- Josiah TrotterLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)Cleared
- Justin SkuleOT · Last listed Wk 1: Doubtful (oblique)—
- Ko KieftTE · Last listed Wk 4: Out (elbow)—
- Miles KillebrewSAF · Last listed Wk 2: Q (concussion)—
- Rakeem Nunez-RochesDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (ankle, foot)—
- Rueben Bain Jr.LB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (groin, shoulder)—
- Sean TuckerRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (quadricep)Cleared
- SirVocea DennisLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle, foot)Cleared
CAR · Carolina Panthers
25 listed- Jaelan PhillipsLB · hamstringOut
- Bam Martin-ScottLB · hamstringQuestionable
- Monroe FreelingOT · kneeQuestionable
- Brady ChristensenOT · Not specifiedIR
- Cam JacksonDT · shoulderIR
- Chris Brazzell IIWR · Not specifiedIR
- Ikem EkwonuOT · Not specifiedIR
- Jaycee HornCB · Not specifiedIR
- Jonathon BrooksRB · abdomenIR
- Mike JacksonCB · Not specifiedIR
- Nic ScourtonLB · Not specifiedIR
- Ryan HayesOT · Not specifiedIR
- Thomas IncoomLB · calfIR
- Xavier LegetteWR · Not specifiedIR
- AJ DillonRB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (ankle)Cleared
- Bobby Brown IIIDT · Last listed Wk 2: Out (back)—
- Damien LewisG · Last listed Wk 6: Q (elbow)Cleared
- Devin LloydLB · Last listed Wk 3: Out (calf)—
- Jalen CokerWR · Last listed Wk 4: Q (quadricep)—
- Lee HunterDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (foot)—
- Nick ScottSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Out (rib)—
- Patrick Jones IILB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (back)—
- Taylor MotonOT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (lung)Cleared
- Tershawn WhartonDE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (neck)Cleared
- Trevor EtienneRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)Cleared
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 2
- Consensus line
- —
- yards
- Projection
- —
- Above the line
- —
- vs closing lines
- —
- no closing lines
- Median
- 2.5
- regular season
- Average
- 2.5
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | — | —— | —— |
| Last 5 | — | —— | —— |
| Season | — | —— | —— |
| Last season | — | —— | —— |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 2
- of 6
- Average
- 2.5
- yards
- Median
- 2.5
- yards
- Above the line
- —
- vs the full 6
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ CIN | — | — | — |
| Week 2 | vs CLE | — | — | — |
| Week 3 | vs MIN | 0 | — | — |
| Week 4 | vs GB | — | — | — |
| Week 5 | @ DAL | 5 | — | — |
| Week 6 | vs PIT | — | — | — |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Snap% | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | vs PIT | 32% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wk 5 | @ DAL | 38% | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Wk 4 | vs GB | 8% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wk 3 | vs MIN | 55% | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 |
| Wk 2 | vs CLE | 6% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wk 1 | @ CIN | 12% | — | — | — | — | — |
Comparable players vs Carolina
Other tight ends who faced Carolina this season, and how they did against their line.
tight ends went over their line vs Carolina
- Dallas GoedertPHI · Week 6Line 36.561Rec ydsOver 36.5Over+24.5
- Sam LaPortaDET · Week 4Line 47.584Rec ydsOver 47.5Over+36.5
- Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · Week 3Line 35.551Rec ydsOver 35.5Over+15.5
- Cole KmetCHI · Week 1Line 13.535Rec ydsOver 13.5Over+21.5
- Colston LovelandCHI · Week 1Line 53.50Rec ydsUnder 53.5Under−53.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Carolina Panthers defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Carolina Panthers actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 9.2 | 7.7 | 27th of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 61% | 72% | 3rd of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 55.6 | 54.2 | 20th of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 6 | 7 | 9th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 8.2 | 6.1 | 31st of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 4 | 4.8 | 10th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 8% | 11% | 3rd of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 18 | 19th of 32 |
| RB | 25.7 | 28th of 32 |
| WR | 29.6 | 9th of 32 |
| TEhis position | 16 | 24th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Cade Otton2025 · Wk 18 | 94 |
| Mason Taylor2025 · Wk 7 | 31 |
| George Kittle2025 · Wk 12 | 78 |
| Trey McBride2025 · Wk 2 | 78 |
| Colston Loveland2026 · Wk 1 | 0 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 44.5
- combined
- TB implied total
- 20.75
- underdog
- CAR implied total
- 23.75
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 30.4s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 9 mph
- Clear
- Conditions
- 69°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 62.3
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 40.2
- 65% pass
- His receptions
- 0.2
- projected this game
- Red-zone trips
- 3
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −2.0
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 32%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Durham sits
If a tight end sits, the next tight end gets the routes; the targets spread to the receivers and the backs.
Next up
Bauer SharpTE · 6% of the snaps
Where his work goes
- Chris Godwin Jr.WR+4targets
- Emeka EgbukaWR+1targets
- Kameron JohnsonWR+1targets
- Tez JohnsonWR+1targets
Based on 2 games without him
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 6% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 4% | +1% |
| 1st TD | 1% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 1% | level |
| Last TD | 2% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 2% | level |
| Receiving Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receptions | No line posted yet | |||||
| Longest Reception | No line posted yet | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.
Moves with this
How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 730 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 730 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
