NFC South · 0–3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
vs Green Bay Packers · Sun, Oct 4 · 10:00 AM PTUnderdog by 3
- Line
- 17.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 23.5
- our projection
- Difference
- +6
- +34.3% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- 0, from 17.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3 | −0.6 | −3.6 | 0 of 3 | +3.5 | −0.5 |
| Team Total | 17.5 | 23.5 | +6 | 2 of 3 | 17.5 | 0 |
| Game Total | 39 | 46.4 | +7.4 | 2 of 3 | 40 | −1 |
| Moneyline | 41% | 52% | +10.9 | 0 of 3 | 42% | −0.9 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 3:04 PM PT17.5opened
- Oct 3, 10:59 AM PT17.5held
Opened 17.5, now 17.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Game Total0.78strong
- Spread0.49moderate
- GB team total0.32mild
- Moneyline0.31mild
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 17.5Under 17.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 17.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 23.5
- +6 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 19
- regular season
- Season average
- 20.7
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 19 | 67%2/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 17 | 40%2/5 | 20%1/5 |
| Last 10 | 19.5 | 60%6/10 | 20%2/10 |
| Season | 19 | 67%2/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last Season | 23 | 77%13/17 | 38%6/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 20.7
- points
- Median team total
- 19
- points
- Cleared
- 2 of 3
- 67% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ CIN | 27 | 23.5 | +3.5 |
| Week 2 | vs CLE | 19 | 25 | −6 |
| Week 3 | vs MIN | 16 | 20.5 | −4.5 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0-3 on the season and have hit the team total in 1 of 3 graded games (33%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 17.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A trailing game script would shift Tampa Bay Buccaneers's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 17.5
- Season average
- 20.7
- vs the line
- +3.2
- Market rank
- 19thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- GB allow 30.3
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 39
- combined
- TB spread
- +3
- underdog
- TB implied total
- 18
- their half
- GB implied total
- 21
- the other half
- Projected script
- Trailing
- underdog at home
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 59
- TB, from pace
- Drives
- 11.7
- 7th in the league
- Points per drive
- 1.77
- needs 1.5 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 3.7
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 29.5
- 25th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Green Bay Packers allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Green Bay Packers defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 30.3 | 30th |
| Points per drive allowed | 2.53 | 26th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 79% | 28th |
| Drives faced / game | 12 | 30th |
| Seconds per play | 32.8 | 3rd |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 35
- Allowed on the road
- 28
- This game
- On the road
- Difference
- −7 a game
Green Bay Packers travel to TB, so the road figure is the one that applies — 7 points a game stingier than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | vs MIN | 16 | 23 | −7 | 39 | 20.5 |
| Week 2 | vs CLE | 19 | 23 | −4 | 42 | 25 |
| Week 1 | @ CIN | 27 | 33 | −6 | 60 | 23.5 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 17.5 — over/under odds across the market. 4 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 17.5 | −105 | −112 |
| BetOnline | 17.5 | +105 | −135 |
| FanDuel | 17.5 | −111 | −115 |
| Caesars | 17.5 | −108 | −124 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 3, 11:00 AM PT. Opening line posted Sep 28, 3:04 PM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.