WR · Cleveland Browns#12
Denzel Boston
Updated
Denzel Boston's receiving yards line is 50.5 for Week 7 at Tennessee Titans (Sun, Oct 25); the projection is 47.3. 6 of 8 markets posted.
@ Tennessee Titans · Week 7
- Line
- 50.5
- Receiving Yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 47.3
- this week
- Difference
- −3.2
- −6%
- Lines checked Stale: our last odds check is over an hour old, with a kickoff inside a day
- Markets posted
- 6 of 8
- Line since open
- level, from 50.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 50.5 receiving yards
Tennessee lets receivers catch 74% of their targets this season, the highest in the league. The doubt is a low 37 game total.
Line50.5Back at 50.5, where it opened on Tuesday, after swinging between 49.5 and 51.5. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.
Over
Why he could top 50.5 receiving yards
- 32ndOF 32Tennessee lets receivers catch 74% of their targets this season, the highest in the league. The league average is 62%.
- 29thOF 32Tennessee gives up 9.4 yards a target to receivers this season, the 4th most in the league. The league average is 8.1.
- 45%AIR YARDSHe draws 45% of Cleveland's air yards over 6 games.
Under
Why he could fall short of 50.5
- 37TOTALThe game total is 37, so fewer drives to throw on.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Cleveland is without quarterback Dillon Gabriel, which changes who throws to Boston. Across from him, Tennessee has nobody out who usually covers receivers.
BostonNo injury designation
Around himCleveland Browns
2 of 27 touch Boston
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRDillon GabrielQB · backChanges who throws to him
- PUPJoe RoyerTEFrees targets
Across from himTennessee Titans
5 of 21 touch Boston
This week
- QuestionableKevin Winston Jr.SAF · quadricepDeep coverage
- QuestionableTony AdamsSAF · ankleDeep coverage
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRDominique HamptonSAFDeep coverage
- IRKendell BrooksSAFDeep coverage
Off the report this week
- ClearedJoshua WilliamsCB · was Q in Wk 6Back on the field
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2721ShowHide
CLE · Cleveland Browns
27 listed- Mike Hall Jr.DT · ankleOut
- Teven JenkinsG · backOut
- Denzel WardCB · handQuestionable
- Dylan SampsonRB · kneeQuestionable
- Grant DelpitSAF · concussion, shoulderQuestionable
- Quincy WilliamsLB · neckQuestionable
- Alex WrightDE · Not specifiedIR
- Damarri MathisDB · Not specifiedIR
- Dillon GabrielQB · backIR
- Edefuan UlofoshioLB · Not specifiedIR
- Elijah ChatmanDT · Not specifiedIR
- Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLB · Not specifiedPUP
- Joe RoyerTE · Not specifiedPUP
- Kalia DavisDT · quadricepIR
- Raheim SandersRB · Not specifiedIR
- Bub MeansWRPractice squad
- Audric EstiméRB · Last listed Wk 1: Out (thigh)—
- Carsen RyanTE · Last listed Wk 5: Out (calf)—
- Carson SchwesingerLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Derek BarnettDE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Elgton JenkinsC · Last listed Wk 4: Out (concussion)—
- Mason GrahamDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee, ankle)Cleared
- Noah IgbinogheneCB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (hand)—
- Parker BrailsfordC · Last listed Wk 1: Q (thumb)—
- Quinshon JudkinsRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Tylan WallaceWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (knee)—
- Tyson CampbellCB · Last listed Wk 3: Q—
TEN · Tennessee Titans
21 listed- Calvin RidleyWR · hipQuestionable
- Dorian MausiLB · footQuestionable
- Kevin Winston Jr.SAF · quadricepQuestionable
- Tony AdamsSAF · ankleQuestionable
- Tyjae SpearsRB · kneeQuestionable
- Dominique HamptonSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Fernando CarmonaG · Not specifiedIR
- Jackson SlaterG · Not specifiedIR
- Jaren KanakTE · Not specifiedIR
- Jaylen HarrellDE · Not specifiedIR
- Kendell BrooksSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Milo EiflerLB · Not specifiedIR
- Tanoh KpassagnonDE · Not specifiedIR
- Nick BroekerGInactive
- Amani HookerSAF · Last listed Wk 5: Out (concussion)—
- Carnell TateWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (back)—
- Cedric GrayLB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (concussion)—
- Cordale FlottCB · Last listed Wk 3: Q (quadricep)—
- David Martin-RobinsonTE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (hamstring)—
- James WilliamsLB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (elbow)—
- Joshua WilliamsCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (pectoral)Cleared
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 6
- Consensus line
- 50.5
- yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 47.3
- −3.2 on the line
- Above the line
- 3 of 6
- 50% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 3 of 6
- each week's own close
- Median
- 52.5
- regular season
- Average
- 57.5
- +7.0 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 46 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 46 | 40%2/5 | 40%2/5 |
| Season | 52.5 | 50%3/6 | 50%3/6 |
| Last season | — | —— | —— |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 6
- of 6
- Average
- 57.5
- yards
- Median
- 52.5
- yards
- Above 50.5
- 3 of 6
- 50% of the sample
- vs the full 6
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ JAX | 59 | 25.5 | +33.5 |
| Week 2 | @ TB | 95 | 29.5 | +65.5 |
| Week 3 | vs CAR | 41 | 45.5 | −4.5 |
| Week 4 | vs PIT | 89 | 74.5 | +14.5 |
| Week 5 | @ NYJ | 46 | 47.5 | −1.5 |
| Week 6 | vs BAL | 15 | 50.5 | −35.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | aDOT | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | vs BAL | 5 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 16.3 | 0 |
| Wk 5 | @ NYJ | 7 | 3 | 46 | 29 | 14.6 | 1 |
| Wk 4 | vs PIT | 7 | 4 | 89 | 60 | 21.1 | 0 |
| Wk 3 | vs CAR | 4 | 2 | 41 | 28 | — | 0 |
| Wk 2 | @ TB | 7 | 5 | 95 | 55 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Wk 1 | @ JAX | 4 | 2 | 59 | 46 | — | 1 |
Comparable players vs Tennessee
Other wide receivers who faced Tennessee this season, and how they did against their line.
wide receivers went over their line vs Tennessee
- Josh DownsIND · Week 6Line 53.540Rec ydsUnder 53.5Under−13.5
- Keenan AllenIND · Week 6Line 47.582Rec ydsOver 47.5Over+34.5
- Laquon TreadwellIND · Week 6Line 29.521Rec ydsUnder 29.5Under−8.5
- Kayshon BoutteHOU · Week 5Line 24.538Rec ydsOver 24.5Over+13.5
- Nico CollinsHOU · Week 5Line 77.556Rec ydsUnder 77.5Under−21.5
- Zay FlowersBAL · Week 4Line 71.5118Rec ydsOver 71.5Over+46.5
- Malachi FieldsNYG · Week 3Line 22.519Rec ydsUnder 22.5Under−3.5
- Malik NabersNYG · Week 3Line 52.526Rec ydsUnder 52.5Under−26.5
- DeVonta SmithPHI · Week 2Line 60.5117Rec ydsOver 60.5Over+56.5
- Dontayvion WicksPHI · Week 2Line 31.574Rec ydsOver 31.5Over+42.5
- Makai LemonPHI · Week 2Line 24.514Rec ydsUnder 24.5Under−10.5
- Adonai MitchellNYJ · Week 1Line 32.560Rec ydsOver 32.5Over+27.5
- Garrett WilsonNYJ · Week 1Line 60.579Rec ydsOver 60.5Over+18.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Tennessee Titans defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Tennessee Titans actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 18.7 | 18.6 | 19th of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 74% | 62% | 32nd of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 175.3 | 150.3 | 26th of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 9.4 | 8.1 | 29th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 10.3 | 11.2 | 10th of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 3.8 | 4.2 | 14th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 12% | 11% | 27th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 14.9 | 12th of 32 |
| RB | 20 | 13th of 32 |
| WRhis position | 35.9 | 24th of 32 |
| TE | 10.5 | 9th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton2025 · Wk 1 | 61 |
| Laquon Treadwell2026 · Wk 6 | 21 |
| Tre Tucker2025 · Wk 6 | 70 |
| Chris Olave2025 · Wk 17 | 119 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster2025 · Wk 16 | 12 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 37
- combined
- CLE implied total
- 19.5
- favored
- TEN implied total
- 17.5
- underdog
- Projected script
- Close
- tight spread
- Pace
- 29.8s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 1 mph
- Clear
- Conditions
- 76°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 58.2
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 37
- 64% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 2
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −0.4
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 92%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Boston sits
If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.
Next up
Isaiah BondWR · 43% of the snaps
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 50.5 | 47.3Tank01, median-adjusted | −3.2 | 2 of 5 | 50.5 | level |
| Receptions | 3.5 | 3.2Nuvela projection | −0.3 | 2 of 5 | 3.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 33% | Market only | — | 2 of 5 | 35% | −2% |
| Longest Reception | 23.5 | 38.5Nuvela | +15.0 | 4 of 5 | 23.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 10% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 10% | level |
| Last TD | 11% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 11% | +1% |
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Tue 8:03 PM50.5opened
- Wed 10:06 AM50.50.0
- Fri 2:59 PM51.5+1.0
- Fri 10:03 PM50.5−1.0
- Sat 11:00 AM49.5−1.0
- Sat 9:06 PM50.5+1.0
Opened 50.5, now 50.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 732 games+0.6
- The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 732 games+0.2
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 732 games0.0
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 50.5 | −115 | −115 |
| BetOnline | 51.5 | −116 | −111 |
| BetRivers | 45.5 | −137 | −106 |
| DraftKings | 52.5 | −110 | −114 |
| Fanatics | 50.5 | −115 | −115 |
| FanDuel | 51.5 | −113 | −113 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
