nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 7 · SUNDAY

Colts vs Vikings Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Oct 25 · 10:00 AM PT
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Conditions
Indoor · dome

Largest gaps vs typical error

  1. Aaron JonesMIN · RUSHING YARDS
    Line
    40.5
    Nuvela projection
    70.5
    Gap
    +30.0
  2. Josh DownsIND · RECEPTIONS
    Line
    4.5
    Nuvela projection
    3.1
    Gap
    −1.4
  3. Kyler MurrayMIN · RUSHING YARDS
    Line
    25.5
    Nuvela projection
    21.0
    Gap
    −4.5
  4. Aaron JonesMIN · RUSH + REC YARDS
    Line
    58.5
    Tank01, median-adjusted
    67.4
    Gap
    In line with market
  5. Josh DownsIND · RECEIVING YARDS
    Line
    49.5
    Tank01, median-adjusted
    42.5
    Gap
    In line with market

The game in numbers

  • 125.8Projected plays
  • -3.5Pass rate over expected
  • 6thPace rank, slate
  • DomeConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Colts17.518.6+1.1
Vikings24.524.4−0.1
Game total41.543.0+1.5

The Colts carry 92% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

134 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props130

Colts · Away6 players

RECEPTIONS
4.5MARKET−1.4WIDE3.1Nuvela projection
Season range 2-7RECEIVING YARDS
49.5MARKET−7.0In line with market42.5Tank01, median-adjusted
Season range 16-77LONGEST RECEPTION
19.5MARKET+2.2MODERATE21.7Nuvela
Season range 9-421ST TD
5%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
No range for this marketANYTIME TD
22%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Season range 0-0LAST TD
7%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
No range for this market
Depth and touchdown only · 6 players · 18 props

Vikings · Home6 players

Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 21 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
41.5MARKET+1.5GAP43.043.0
Season range 12-64
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
MIN by 6.5MARKET+0.8GAP5.7MIN by 5.7
Season range 2-18

Team props2

Colts · Away1 market

ColtsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
17.5MARKET+1.1GAP18.6Nuvela
Season range 19-30

Vikings · Home1 market

VikingsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
24.5MARKET−0.1GAP24.4Nuvela
Season range 9-39

Live stats. Posted lines.

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