RB · Indianapolis Colts#20
Seth McGowan
Updated
Seth McGowan's rushing yards line is 20.5 for Week 8 at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 16.8. 4 of 10 markets posted.
@ Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 8
- Line
- 20.5
- Rushing Yards
- Nuvela projection
- 16.8
- this week
- Difference
- −3.7
- −18%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 10
- Line since open
- level, from 20.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 20.5 rushing yards
Line20.5Hasn't moved since it opened Thu 4:59 PM PT, at BetRivers, Bovada and 1 more.
Over
Why he could top 20.5 rushing yards
- 11CARRIES, WK 7He had 11 carries in Week 7, his most in 7 games this season.
- −5.2PASS RATEOver 7 games, Indianapolis has thrown less often than most teams do in the same game situations.
- 25thOF 32Jacksonville puts 8 or more in the box on 16% of carries this season, the 8th lowest in the league.
Under
Why he could fall short of 20.5
- 1stFEWESTJacksonville gives up 52 rushing yards a game to running backs this season, the fewest in the league.
- 16%CARRIESHe gets 16% of Indianapolis's carries over 7 games.
- 10PT UNDERDOGIndianapolis is a 10 point underdog.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Indianapolis is missing two receivers and one tight end, which frees targets. Across from him, Jacksonville is missing two defensive linemen and two linebackers, the players who usually stop the run.
McGowanNo injury designation
Around himIndianapolis Colts
6 of 21 touch McGowan
This week
- QuestionableAndrew OgletreeTE · kneeFrees targets
- QuestionableAnthony GouldWR · concussionFrees targets
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRAlec PierceWR · heelFrees targets
- IRCarson TowtTEFrees targets
- IRD.J. MontgomeryWRFrees targets
Off the report this week
- ClearedTyler WarrenTE · was Out in Wk 7Back on the field
Across from himJacksonville Jaguars
8 of 20 touch McGowan
This week
- QuestionableAntonio JohnsonSAF · ankleCovers backs downfield
- QuestionableJahlani TavaiLB · hamstringTackles and covers backs
- QuestionableRuke OrhorhoroDT · ankleDefends the run
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRBJ Green IIDEDefends the run
- IRCaleb RansawSAFCovers backs downfield
- IRJared BartlettLBTackles and covers backs
Show 2 more
- IRParker HughesLBTackles and covers backs
- IRZach DurfeeDEDefends the run
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2120ShowHide
IND · Indianapolis Colts
21 listed- Andrew OgletreeTE · kneeQuestionable
- Anthony GouldWR · concussionQuestionable
- Bryce BoettcherLB · groinQuestionable
- Justin WalleyCB · kneeQuestionable
- Alec PierceWR · heelIR
- Arden KeyDE · Not specifiedIR
- Cam Taylor-BrittCB · groinIR
- Cameron MitchellDB · Not specifiedIR
- Carson TowtTE · Not specifiedIR
- D.J. MontgomeryWR · Not specifiedIR
- Micheal ClemonsDE · Not specifiedIR
- Ashton DulinWR · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)—
- Austin AjiakeLB · Last listed Wk 1: Out (hamstring)—
- CJ AllenLB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (ankle)Cleared
- Charvarius WardCB · Last listed Wk 5: Q—
- DJ GiddensRB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee)—
- Jaylon CarliesLB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (ribs)—
- Keenan AllenWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q—
- Sauce GardnerCB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (calf)Cleared
- Tyler WarrenTE · Last listed Wk 7: Out (groin)Cleared
- Will MalloryTE · Last listed Wk 5: Out (thumb)—
JAX · Jacksonville Jaguars
20 listed- Ross MatiscikLSOut last week
- Antonio JohnsonSAF · ankleQuestionable
- Jahlani TavaiLB · hamstringQuestionable
- Jakobi MeyersWR · hamstringQuestionable
- LeQuint Allen Jr.RB · hamstringQuestionable
- Ruke OrhorhoroDT · ankleQuestionable
- Anton HarrisonOT · Not specifiedIR
- BJ Green IIDE · Not specifiedIR
- Caleb RansawSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Carter BradleyQB · Not specifiedIR
- Garrett DiGiorgioOT · Not specifiedIR
- Jared BartlettLB · Not specifiedIR
- Parker HughesLB · Not specifiedIR
- Patrick MekariOT · Not specifiedIR
- Sam MustipherC · Not specifiedIR
- Zach DurfeeDE · Not specifiedIR
- Albert RegisDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (elbow)—
- Eric MurrayS · Last listed Wk 5: Doubtful (concussion)—
- Jaylon JonesDB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
- Montaric BrownCB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Rushing Yards, last 7
- Consensus line
- 20.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 16.8
- −3.7 on the line
- Above the line
- 3 of 7
- 43% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 3 of 4
- each week's own close
- Median
- 16
- regular season
- Average
- 19.1
- −1.4 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 27 | 67%2/3 | 100%2/2 |
| Last 5 | 27 | 60%3/5 | 100%3/3 |
| Season | 16 | 43%3/7 | 75%3/4 |
| Last season | — | —— | —— |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 7
- of 7
- Average
- 19.1
- yards
- Median
- 16
- yards
- Above 20.5
- 3 of 7
- 43% of the sample
- vs the full 7
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Rushing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs BAL | 0 | — | — |
| Week 2 | @ KC | 0 | 5.5 | −5.5 |
| Week 3 | vs HOU | 14 | — | — |
| Week 4 | @ WAS | 31 | 6.5 | +24.5 |
| Week 5 | @ PIT | 16 | — | — |
| Week 6 | vs TEN | 27 | 15.5 | +11.5 |
| Week 7 | @ MIN | 46 | 14.5 | +31.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Rush yds | YPC | Long | Rec | TD | Ogletree |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 | @ MIN | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 14 | 1 | 0 | On field |
| Wk 6 | vs TEN | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 18 | 0 | 0 | Out |
| Wk 5 | @ PIT | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | On field |
| Wk 4 | @ WAS | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | On field |
| Wk 3 | vs HOU | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | Out |
| Wk 2 | @ KC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | On field |
| Wk 1 | vs BAL | 0 | 0 | — | — | 1 | 0 | Out |
Comparable players vs Jacksonville
Other running backs who faced Jacksonville this season, and how they did against their line.
running backs went under their line vs Jacksonville
- Woody MarksHOU · Week 6Line 45.556Rush ydsOver 45.5Over+10.5
- Dameon PiercePHI · Week 5Line 22.514Rush ydsUnder 22.5Under−8.5
- Chase BrownCIN · Week 4Line 59.510Rush ydsUnder 59.5Under−49.5
- Rhamondre StevensonNE · Week 3Line 34.522Rush ydsUnder 34.5Under−12.5
- Jonah ColemanDEN · Week 2Line 18.539Rush ydsOver 18.5Over+20.5
- Quinshon JudkinsCLE · Week 1Line 56.533Rush ydsUnder 56.5Under−23.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Jacksonville Jaguars defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What Jacksonville Jaguars actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 17.3 | 22.1 | 2nd of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 51.5 | 91.1 | 1st of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 3 | 4.1 | 1st of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 17% | 17% | 17th of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 5% | 11% | 2nd of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 16% | 23% | 25th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 15.5 | 13th of 32 |
| RBhis position | 17.3 | 2nd of 32 |
| WR | 38 | 29th of 32 |
| TE | 11.8 | 11th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rush yds |
|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty2025 · Wk 9 | 42 |
| Jonathan Taylor2025 · Wk 17 | 70 |
| Christian McCaffrey2025 · Wk 4 | 49 |
| Chase Brown2026 · Wk 4 | 10 |
| Woody Marks2026 · Wk 6 | 56 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 46.5
- combined
- IND implied total
- 18.25
- underdog
- JAX implied total
- 28.25
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 31.2s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 9 mph
- Clouds
- Conditions
- 76°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 65.1
- 7-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 37.8
- 58% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 2.9
- 7-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −5.2
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 33%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If McGowan sits
If a back sits, his carries usually split into two jobs rather than going to one player: early downs and the goal line, and passing downs.
Next up
DJ GiddensRB
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
Only 1 game without him, too few to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 21% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 21% | level |
| Rushing Yards | 20.5 | 16.8Nuvela projection | −3.7 | 3 of 5 | 20.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 4% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 4% | level |
| Last TD | 6% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 6% | level |
| Rush Attempts | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receptions | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receiving Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
| Longest Rush | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Thu 4:59 PM20.5opened
- Fri 11:01 AM20.50.0
Opened 20.5, now 20.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Rushing Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 18.5 | −119 | −109 |
| BetRivers | 20.5 | −110 | −121 |
| Bovada | 20.5 | −115 | −115 |
| DraftKings | 20.5 | −110 | −114 |
| FanDuel | 19.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
About these numbers
Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.
- Where do Seth McGowan's prop lines come from?
- From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Seth McGowan's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
- How is Seth McGowan's projection made?
- The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Seth McGowan's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.
