Where do Daniel Jones's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Daniel Jones's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Daniel Jones's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Daniel Jones's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

QB · Indianapolis Colts#17

Daniel Jones

Updated Oct 30, 2:10 PM PT

Daniel Jones' passing yards line is 188.5 for Week 8 at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 216.7. 12 of 13 markets posted.

@ Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 8

Line: 188.5; Passing Yards
Nuvela projection: 216.7; this week
Difference: +28.2; +15%

Lines checked: Oct 30, 2:28 PM PT
Markets posted: 12 of 13
Line since open: −2.0, from 190.5
Projections updated: Oct 30, 2:30 PM PT

Highlights

Line188.5Down 2 since it opened at 190.5 on Wednesday, after swinging between 188.5 and 191.5. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.

Over

Why he could top 188.5 passing yards

10PT UNDERDOGIndianapolis is a 10 point underdog.
30thOF 32Jacksonville gives up 280 passing yards a game this season, the 3rd most in the league.
11/13LAST SEASONLast season he topped 188.5 in 11 of 13 games, and his typical game was 255 passing yards.

Under

Why he could fall short of 188.5

4thHIGHESTJacksonville pressures the quarterback on 30% of dropbacks this season, the 4th highest in the league.
162VS TOP 10Jacksonville is one of the top 10 pass rushes, and in his 3 games against that group he averaged 162 passing yards.
18.25IND POINTSIndianapolis's team total is about 18 points.

Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Indianapolis is missing three receivers and one tight end, which leaves Jones fewer targets to throw to. Across from him, Jacksonville is missing two defensive linemen and two linebackers, the players who usually rush the passer.

JonesNo injury designation

Around himIndianapolis Colts

6 of 21 touch Jones

This week

OutAnthony GouldWR · concussionOne fewer target for him to throw to
QuestionableAndrew OgletreeTE · kneeOne fewer target for him to throw to

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRAlec PierceWR · heelOne fewer target for him to throw to
IRCarson TowtTEOne fewer target for him to throw to
IRD.J. MontgomeryWROne fewer target for him to throw to

Off the report this week

ClearedTyler WarrenTE · was Out in Wk 7Back on the field

Across from himJacksonville Jaguars

6 of 18 touch Jones

This week

OutAntonio JohnsonSAF · ankleIn pass coverage

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRBJ Green IIDERushes the passer
IRCaleb RansawSAFIn pass coverage
IRJared BartlettLBRushes the passer

Show 2 more

IRParker HughesLBRushes the passer
IRZach DurfeeDERushes the passer

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2118Show

IND · Indianapolis Colts

21 listed

Anthony GouldWR · concussionOut
Justin WalleyCB · kneeOut
Andrew OgletreeTE · kneeQuestionable
Bryce BoettcherLB · groinQuestionable
Alec PierceWR · heelIR
Arden KeyDE · Not specifiedIR
Cam Taylor-BrittCB · groinIR
Cameron MitchellDB · Not specifiedIR
Carson TowtTE · Not specifiedIR
D.J. MontgomeryWR · Not specifiedIR
Micheal ClemonsDE · Not specifiedIR
Ashton DulinWR · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)—
Austin AjiakeLB · Last listed Wk 1: Out (hamstring)—
CJ AllenLB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (ankle)Cleared
Charvarius WardCB · Last listed Wk 5: Q—
DJ GiddensRB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee)—
Jaylon CarliesLB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (ribs)—
Keenan AllenWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q—
Sauce GardnerCB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (calf)Cleared
Tyler WarrenTE · Last listed Wk 7: Out (groin)Cleared
Will MalloryTE · Last listed Wk 5: Out (thumb)—

JAX · Jacksonville Jaguars

18 listed

Antonio JohnsonSAF · ankleOut
Ross MatiscikLSOut last week
Jakobi MeyersWR · hamstringQuestionable
Anton HarrisonOT · Not specifiedIR
BJ Green IIDE · Not specifiedIR
Caleb RansawSAF · Not specifiedIR
Carter BradleyQB · Not specifiedIR
Garrett DiGiorgioOT · Not specifiedIR
Jared BartlettLB · Not specifiedIR
Parker HughesLB · Not specifiedIR
Patrick MekariOT · Not specifiedIR
Sam MustipherC · Not specifiedIR
Zach DurfeeDE · Not specifiedIR
Albert RegisDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (elbow)—
Eric MurrayS · Last listed Wk 5: Doubtful (concussion)—
Jaylon JonesDB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
LeQuint Allen Jr.RB · Last listed Wk 1: Q (hip)—
Montaric BrownCB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Passing Yards, last 7

against the posted 188.5

166

BAL

210

at KC

235

HOU

143

at WAS

267

at PIT

269

TEN

108

at MIN

216.7vs JAX

Cleared 188.5Under 188.5Nuvela projection this week

Explore line188.5

Consensus line: 188.5; yards
Nuvela projection: 216.7; +28.2 on the line
Above the line: 4 of 7; 57% of the sample
vs closing lines: 4 of 7; each week's own close
Median: 210; regular season
Average: 199.7; +11.2 on the line

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	267	67%2/3	67%2/3
Last 5	235	60%3/5	60%3/5
Season	210	57%4/7	57%4/7
Last season	255	85%11/13	62%8/13

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

7 of 7 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Teammate

Games: 7; of 7
Average: 199.7; yards
Median: 210; yards
Above 188.5: 4 of 7; 57% of the sample
vs the full 7: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Passing Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	vs BAL	166	231.5	−65.5
Week 2	@ KC	210	172.5	+37.5
Week 3	vs HOU	235	210.5	+24.5
Week 4	@ WAS	143	220.5	−77.5
Week 5	@ PIT	267	208.5	+58.5
Week 6	vs TEN	269	224.5	+44.5
Week 7	@ MIN	108	189.5	−81.5

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

7 played

Week	Opponent	Att	Comp	Pass yds	Long	TD	INT	Rush yds	Ogletree
Wk 7	@ MIN	22	13	108	13	0	1	13	On field
Wk 6	vs TEN	42	22	269	38	1	2	30	Out
Wk 5	@ PIT	44	24	267	42	0	0	4	On field
Wk 4	@ WAS	34	19	143	23	0	1	2	On field
Wk 3	vs HOU	36	24	235	26	1	1	5	Out
Wk 2	@ KC	31	22	210	48	1	1	10	On field
Wk 1	vs BAL	31	19	166	25	1	1	4	Out

Comparable players vs Jacksonville

5 of 6

quarterbacks went over their line vs Jacksonville

Jones this weekLine188.5Nuvela projection216.7

C.J. StroudHOU · Week 6Line 251.5312Pass ydsOver 251.5Over+60.5
Jalen HurtsPHI · Week 5Line 189.5220Pass ydsOver 189.5Over+30.5
Joe BurrowCIN · Week 4Line 270.5428Pass ydsOver 270.5Over+157.5
Drake MayeNE · Week 3Line 221.5199Pass ydsUnder 221.5Under−22.5
Bo NixDEN · Week 2Line 220.5288Pass ydsOver 220.5Over+67.5
Deshaun WatsonCLE · Week 1Line 176.5205Pass ydsOver 176.5Over+28.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Jacksonville Jaguars defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles the pass

What Jacksonville Jaguars actually allows to QBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Pass attempts facedHow much passing volume this defence sees: the base under every passing prop.	35.2	33.5	24th of 32
Passing yards allowedPer game, to quarterbacks.	280.3	235.8	30th of 32
Yards per attempt allowedEfficiency conceded, independent of how often the defence is thrown on.	8	7.1	29th of 32
Completion % allowedCompletions per attempt.	66%	64%	21st of 32
Sack rateSacks per dropback. Sacks remove attempts outright, so they cap a passing line.	5%	6%	23rd of 32
Pressure rateHow often this defence pressured the quarterbacks it faced: the mechanism behind suppressed passing yards.	30%	22%	4th of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	11%	11%	19th of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QBhis position	15.5	13th of 32
RB	17.3	2nd of 32
WR	38	29th of 32
TE	11.8	11th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Pass yds
Joe Burrow2026 · Wk 4	428
Brady Cook2025 · Wk 15	176
Sam Darnold2025 · Wk 6	295
Jalen Hurts2026 · Wk 5	220
Patrick Mahomes2025 · Wk 5	318

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 46.5; combined
IND implied total: 18.25; underdog
JAX implied total: 28.25; favored
Projected script: Neutral/Trail; underdog
Pace: 31.2s; seconds / play
Wind: 9 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 76°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 65.1; 7-game avg
Dropbacks: 37.8; 58% pass
Red-zone trips: 2.9; 7-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −5.2; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Dropback %58%

Of the team's dropbacks he's on the field for

Pass att / g34.3

Pass attempts per game

Rush att / g3

Rush attempts per game

aDOT7.8

Average depth of target, in yards

Pressure rate23%

Dropbacks under pressure

Scramble rate3%

Dropbacks that turn into scrambles

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: None reported
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 100%
Games missed this season: 0

If Jones sits

If a quarterback sits, the whole passing game moves down together: every receiver's range drops with the backup.

Next up

Anthony RichardsonQB

Where his work goes

Every pass catcher's number moves down with the backup, so there is no single winner to show.

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

12 posted · 1 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Passing Yards	188.5	216.7Nuvela projection	+28.2	3 of 5	190.5	−2.0
Passing TDs	0.5	Market only	—	2 of 5	0.5	level
Anytime TD	12%	Market only	—	1 of 5	11%	level
Interceptions	0.5	Market only	—	4 of 5	0.5	level
Rushing Yards	8.5	8.1Nuvela projection	−0.4	2 of 5	8.5	level
Pass Attempts	31.5	33.9Nuvela projection	+2.4	4 of 5	31.5	level
Completions	19.5	21.0Nuvela projection	+1.5	3 of 5	19.5	level
Pass + Rush Yards	199.5	224.8Nuvela projection	+25.3	3 of 5	202.5	−3.0
Longest Completion	33.5	26.4Nuvela	−7.1	2 of 5	32.5	+1.0
1st TD	2%	Market only	—	0 of 5	2%	level
Last TD	3%	Market only	—	1 of 5	3%	level
Longest Rush	6.5	4.1Nuvela	−2.4	1 of 5	6.5	level
Rush Attempts	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

net −2 (range 187.5–191.5)

Wed 1:59 AM190.5opened
Wed 2:03 PM191.5+1.0
Wed 8:02 PM190.5−1.0
Wed 8:03 PM189.5−1.0
Thu 2:04 AM188.5−1.0
Fri 11:01 AM188.50.0

Opened 190.5, now 188.5.

Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the QB's passing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The WR1's receiving yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
The WR2's receiving yardsmove together · 760 games+0.5
The TE1's receiving yardsmove together · 758 games+0.4
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

Passing Yards

7 books

Sportsbook	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	189.5	−115	−115
BetOnline	190.5	−118	−110
BetRivers	189.5	−115	−115
Bovada	188.5	−115	−115
DraftKings	188.5	−111	−113
Fanatics	185.5	−115	−115
FanDuel	188.5	−114	−114

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Daniel Jones's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Daniel Jones's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Daniel Jones's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Daniel Jones's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.