Where do Ashton Dulin's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Ashton Dulin's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Ashton Dulin's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Ashton Dulin's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

WR · Indianapolis Colts#16

Ashton Dulin

Ashton Dulin (WR, IND) props for Week 8 at Jacksonville Jaguars: lines post as books open. Season averages and hit rates on every market we track.

@ Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 8

Line: —; Receiving Yards
Projection: —; No line is posted for this market this week.
Difference: —

Lines checked: Oct 30, 2:28 PM PT
Markets posted: 3 of 8
Projections updated: Oct 30, 3:01 PM PT

Highlights

No book has posted this line yet.Highlights appear when one does.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Indianapolis is without three other receivers, so more of the receiver targets go to Dulin. Across from him, Jacksonville has nobody out who usually covers receivers.

DulinNo injury designation

Around himIndianapolis Colts

6 of 20 touch Dulin

This week

OutAnthony GouldWR · concussionFrees targets at his spot
QuestionableAndrew OgletreeTE · kneeFrees targets

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRAlec PierceWR · heelFrees targets at his spot
IRD.J. MontgomeryWRFrees targets at his spot
IRCarson TowtTEFrees targets

Off the report this week

ClearedTyler WarrenTE · was Out in Wk 7Back on the field

Across from himJacksonville Jaguars

2 of 18 touch Dulin

This week

OutAntonio JohnsonSAF · ankleDeep coverage

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRCaleb RansawSAFDeep coverage

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2018Show

IND · Indianapolis Colts

20 listed

Anthony GouldWR · concussionOut
Justin WalleyCB · kneeOut
Andrew OgletreeTE · kneeQuestionable
Bryce BoettcherLB · groinQuestionable
Alec PierceWR · heelIR
Arden KeyDE · Not specifiedIR
Cam Taylor-BrittCB · groinIR
Cameron MitchellDB · Not specifiedIR
Carson TowtTE · Not specifiedIR
D.J. MontgomeryWR · Not specifiedIR
Micheal ClemonsDE · Not specifiedIR
Austin AjiakeLB · Last listed Wk 1: Out (hamstring)—
CJ AllenLB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (ankle)Cleared
Charvarius WardCB · Last listed Wk 5: Q—
DJ GiddensRB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee)—
Jaylon CarliesLB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (ribs)—
Keenan AllenWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q—
Sauce GardnerCB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (calf)Cleared
Tyler WarrenTE · Last listed Wk 7: Out (groin)Cleared
Will MalloryTE · Last listed Wk 5: Out (thumb)—

JAX · Jacksonville Jaguars

18 listed

Antonio JohnsonSAF · ankleOut
Ross MatiscikLSOut last week
Jakobi MeyersWR · hamstringQuestionable
Anton HarrisonOT · Not specifiedIR
BJ Green IIDE · Not specifiedIR
Caleb RansawSAF · Not specifiedIR
Carter BradleyQB · Not specifiedIR
Garrett DiGiorgioOT · Not specifiedIR
Jared BartlettLB · Not specifiedIR
Parker HughesLB · Not specifiedIR
Patrick MekariOT · Not specifiedIR
Sam MustipherC · Not specifiedIR
Zach DurfeeDE · Not specifiedIR
Albert RegisDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (elbow)—
Eric MurrayS · Last listed Wk 5: Doubtful (concussion)—
Jaylon JonesDB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
LeQuint Allen Jr.RB · Last listed Wk 1: Q (hip)—
Montaric BrownCB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Receiving Yards, last 3

against the posted line

BAL

—DNP

at WAS

—DNP

at MIN

Cleared the lineUnder the line

Consensus line: —; yards
Projection: —
Above the line: —
vs closing lines: —; no closing lines
Median: 0; regular season
Average: 9.7

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	—	——	——
Last 5	—	——	——
Season	—	——	——
Last season	55	——	100%1/1

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

3 of 3 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 3; of 3
Average: 9.7; yards
Median: 0; yards
Above the line: —
vs the full 3: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Receiving Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	vs BAL	0	—	—
Week 4	@ WAS	29	—	—
Week 7	@ MIN	0	—	—

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

3 played

Week	Opponent	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Long	aDOT
Wk 7	@ MIN	0	0	0	—	—
Wk 4	@ WAS	6	3	29	23	6.7
Wk 1	vs BAL	1	0	0	—	—

Comparable players vs Jacksonville

12 of 16

wide receivers went over their line vs Jacksonville

Nico CollinsHOU · Week 6Line 73.574Rec ydsOver 73.5Over+0.5
Xavier HutchinsonHOU · Week 6Line 14.510Rec ydsUnder 14.5Under−4.5
Darius CooperPHI · Week 5Line 23.571Rec ydsOver 23.5Over+47.5
Dontayvion WicksPHI · Week 5Line 45.563Rec ydsOver 45.5Over+17.5
Makai LemonPHI · Week 5Line 29.543Rec ydsOver 29.5Over+13.5
Dohnte MeyersCIN · Week 4Line 19.582Rec ydsOver 19.5Over+62.5
Tee HigginsCIN · Week 4Line 61.5157Rec ydsOver 61.5Over+95.5
DeMario DouglasNE · Week 3Line 30.538Rec ydsOver 30.5Over+7.5
Mack HollinsNE · Week 3Line 34.587Rec ydsOver 34.5Over+52.5
Romeo DoubsNE · Week 3Line 42.549Rec ydsOver 42.5Over+6.5
Courtland SuttonDEN · Week 2Line 39.525Rec ydsUnder 39.5Under−14.5
Jaylen WaddleDEN · Week 2Line 54.5138Rec ydsOver 54.5Over+83.5
Pat BryantDEN · Week 2Line 32.50Rec ydsUnder 32.5Under−32.5
Denzel BostonCLE · Week 1Line 25.559Rec ydsOver 25.5Over+33.5
Jerry JeudyCLE · Week 1Line 29.526Rec ydsUnder 29.5Under−3.5
KC ConcepcionCLE · Week 1Line 33.543Rec ydsOver 33.5Over+9.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Jacksonville Jaguars defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles receivers

What Jacksonville Jaguars actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on.	21	18.4	26th of 32
Catch rate allowedReceptions per target.	65%	62%	24th of 32
Receiving yards allowedTo this position.	210	148.8	32nd of 32
Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position.	10	8.1	32nd of 32
Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go.	12.5	11.1	27th of 32
Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line.	4.3	4.3	17th of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	11%	11%	19th of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	15.5	13th of 32
RB	17.3	2nd of 32
WRhis position	38	29th of 32
TE	11.8	11th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rec yds
Tre Tucker2025 · Wk 9	38
Elic Ayomanor2025 · Wk 18	50
Denzel Boston2026 · Wk 1	59
Alec Pierce2025 · Wk 17	0
Quentin Johnston2025 · Wk 11	0

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 46.5; combined
IND implied total: 18.25; underdog
JAX implied total: 28.25; favored
Projected script: Neutral/Trail; underdog
Pace: 31.2s; seconds / play
Wind: 9 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 76°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 65.1; 7-game avg
Dropbacks: 37.8; 58% pass
His receptions: 0.4; projected this game
Red-zone trips: 2.9; 7-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −5.2; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share19%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %17%

Of the team's dropbacks

Target share8%

Of all his team's targets

Air-yards share—

Of the team's intended air yards

RZ target share0%

Inside the opponent's 20

Targets / g2.3

Targets per game

Yards / route run1.3

Receiving yards per route run

aDOT5.4

Average depth of target, in yards

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 2%
Games missed this season: 4

If Dulin sits

If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.

Next up

Deion BurksWR · 14% of the snaps

Where his work goes

Tyler WarrenTE+3.7targets
Josh DownsWR+3.6targets
Andrew OgletreeTE+0.8targets
Laquon TreadwellWR+0.3targets

Based on 5 games without him

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

3 posted · 5 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Anytime TD	6%	Market only	—	0 of 5 incl. 2025	7%	−1%
1st TD	1%	Market only	—	0 of 5 incl. 2025	1%	level
Last TD	2%	Market only	—	0 of 5 incl. 2025	2%	level
Receiving Yards	No line posted yet
Receptions	No line posted yet
Longest Reception	No line posted yet
2+ TDs	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 760 games+0.2
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Ashton Dulin's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Ashton Dulin's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Ashton Dulin's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Ashton Dulin's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.