WR · Kansas City Chiefs#85
Andrew Armstrong
Andrew Armstrong's receiving yards line is 10.5 for Week 7 at Seattle Seahawks (Sun, Oct 25); the projection is 15.5. 5 of 8 markets posted.
@ Seattle Seahawks · Week 7
- Line
- 10.5
- Receiving Yards
- Nuvela projection
- 15.5
- this week
- Difference
- +5.0
- +48%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 5 of 8
- Line since open
- level, from 10.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 10.5 receiving yards
Kansas City is a 3-point underdog, and teams that trail throw more. The doubts are Seattle's receiving yards allowed (the fewest in the league) and his small share of the targets.
Line10.5Hasn't moved since it opened Sat 3:42 PM PT, at BetOnline, Bovada and 2 more.
Over
Why he could top 10.5 receiving yards
- 3PT UNDERDOGKansas City is a 3-point underdog, and teams that trail throw more.
Under
Why he could fall short of 10.5
- 1stFEWESTSeattle gives up 100 receiving yards a game to receivers this season, the fewest in the league. The league average is 150.
- 2TARGETS A GAMEHe gets 2 targets a game, 7% of Kansas City's total, over 1 game.
- 1GAMEHe has played only 1 game this season, so there is little to go on.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Kansas City is without four other receivers, so more of the receiver targets go to Armstrong. Across from him, Seattle is missing one cornerback, the players who usually cover receivers.
ArmstrongNo injury designation
Around himKansas City Chiefs
6 of 19 touch Armstrong
This week
- OutRashee RiceWR · hamstring, kneeFrees targets at his spot
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRJeff CaldwellWRFrees targets at his spot
- IRJimmy HolidayWRFrees targets at his spot
- IRTyquan ThorntonWRFrees targets at his spot
Show 2 more
- IRChris OladokunQBChanges who throws to him
- IRJohn Michael GyllenborgTEFrees targets
Across from himSeattle Seahawks
3 of 26 touch Armstrong
This week
- QuestionableNick EmmanworiSAF · hipDeep coverage
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRBud ClarkSAFDeep coverage
- IRJulian NealCBCovers receivers
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists1926ShowHide
KC · Kansas City Chiefs
19 listed- Jaylon MooreOT · concussionOut
- Rashee RiceWR · hamstring, kneeOut
- Cooper McDonaldLB · kneeQuestionable
- L'Jarius SneedCB · kneeQuestionable
- Brashard SmithRB · hamstringIR
- C.J. HansonG · Not specifiedIR
- Chris OladokunQB · Not specifiedIR
- EJ SmithRB · Not specifiedIR
- Ethan DownsLB · Not specifiedIR
- Jeff CaldwellWR · Not specifiedIR
- Jimmy HolidayWR · Not specifiedIR
- John Michael GyllenborgTE · Not specifiedIR
- Josh SimmonsOT · backIR
- Matt WaletzkoOT · Not specifiedIR
- Omarr Norman-LottDT · Not specifiedPUP
- Tyquan ThorntonWR · Not specifiedIR
- Chamarri ConnerDB · Last listed Wk 3: Doubtful (knee)—
- Chris JonesDE · Last listed Wk 2: Q (calf)—
- Mansoor DelaneCB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (shoulder)—
SEA · Seattle Seahawks
26 listed- Chazz SurrattLB · calfOut
- Drake ThomasLB · ankleOut
- Zach CharbonnetRB · kneeOut
- Connor O'TooleLB · hamstringQuestionable
- DeMarcus LawrenceLB · kneeQuestionable
- Drew LockQB · elbowQuestionable
- Nick EmmanworiSAF · hipQuestionable
- Uchenna NwosuLB · hipQuestionable
- Aaron SmithLB · Not specifiedIR
- Anthony BradfordG · Not specifiedIR
- Bud ClarkSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Elijah ArroyoTE · shoulderIR
- Jadarian PriceRB · Not specifiedIR
- Jake BoboWR · Not specifiedIR
- Julian NealCB · Not specifiedIR
- Mason RichmanG · Not specifiedIR
- Robbie OuztsRB · Not specifiedIR
- Jacardia WrightRBPractice squad
- Terrion ArnoldCBInactive
- Brandon PiliDT · Last listed Wk 3: Q (concussion, neck)—
- George HolaniRB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ribs, knee)—
- Irvin CharlesWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
- Julian LoveSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Out (calf)—
- Sam DarnoldQB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (glute)—
- Tory HortonWR · Last listed Wk 1: Q (hamstring)—
- Ty OkadaSAF · Last listed Wk 4: Q (hamstring)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 1
- Consensus line
- 10.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 15.5
- +5.0 on the line
- Above the line
- 1 of 1
- 100% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- —
- no closing lines
- Median
- 13
- regular season
- Average
- 13
- +2.5 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 13 | 100%1/1 | —— |
| Last 5 | 13 | 100%1/1 | —— |
| Season | 13 | 100%1/1 | —— |
| Last season | — | —— | —— |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 1
- of 1
- Average
- 13
- yards
- Median
- 13
- yards
- Above 10.5
- 1 of 1
- 100% of the sample
- vs the full 1
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | vs LAC | 13 | — | — |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | aDOT | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | vs LAC | 2 | 1 | 13 | 13 | — | 0 |
Comparable players vs Seattle
Other wide receivers who faced Seattle this season, and how they did against their line.
wide receivers went under their line vs Seattle
- Courtland SuttonDEN · Week 6Line 32.519Rec ydsUnder 32.5Under−13.5
- Jaylen WaddleDEN · Week 6Line 47.524Rec ydsUnder 47.5Under−23.5
- Troy FranklinDEN · Week 6Line 17.52Rec ydsUnder 17.5Under−15.5
- Mike EvansSF · Week 5Line 51.5113Rec ydsOver 51.5Over+61.5
- Quentin JohnstonLAC · Week 4Line 34.544Rec ydsOver 34.5Over+9.5
- Tre HarrisLAC · Week 4Line 36.560Rec ydsOver 36.5Over+23.5
- Stefon DiggsWAS · Week 3Line 34.533Rec ydsUnder 34.5Under−1.5
- Terry McLaurinWAS · Week 3Line 41.577Rec ydsOver 41.5Over+35.5
- Kendrick BourneARI · Week 2Line 24.511Rec ydsUnder 24.5Under−13.5
- Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI · Week 2Line 36.50Rec ydsUnder 36.5Under−36.5
- Michael WilsonARI · Week 2Line 37.518Rec ydsUnder 37.5Under−19.5
- DeMario DouglasNE · Week 1Line 20.520Rec ydsUnder 20.5Under−0.5
- Mack HollinsNE · Week 1Line 10.551Rec ydsOver 10.5Over+40.5
- Romeo DoubsNE · Week 1Line 37.50Rec ydsUnder 37.5Under−37.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Seattle Seahawks defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Seattle Seahawks actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 16.2 | 18.6 | 6th of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 58% | 62% | 9th of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 100.5 | 150.3 | 1st of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 6.2 | 8.1 | 1st of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 10.2 | 11.2 | 8th of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2nd of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 9% | 11% | 10th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 11.2 | 2nd of 32 |
| RB | 22.1 | 20th of 32 |
| WRhis position | 23.4 | 3rd of 32 |
| TE | 8.9 | 3rd of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Alec Pierce2025 · Wk 15 | 16 |
| Justin Jefferson2025 · Wk 13 | 4 |
| David Sills2025 · Wk 14 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson2026 · Wk 2 | 18 |
| Tre Harris2026 · Wk 4 | 60 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 42.5
- combined
- KC implied total
- 19.75
- underdog
- SEA implied total
- 22.75
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 30.6s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 1 mph
- Rain
- Conditions
- 53°F
- outdoor · 28% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 60.8
- 5-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 34.7
- 57% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 4.6
- 5-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +2.9
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 69%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Armstrong sits
If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.
Next up
Justin WatsonWR · 20% of the snaps
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 10.5 | 15.5Nuvela projection | +5.0 | 1 of 1 | 10.5 | level |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 1.4Nuvela projection | −0.1 | 0 of 1 | 1.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 9% | Market only | — | 0 of 1 | 10% | −1% |
| 1st TD | 2% | Market only | — | 0 of 1 | 3% | level |
| Last TD | 3% | Market only | — | 0 of 1 | 3% | level |
| Longest Reception | No line posted yet | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Sat 3:42 PM10.5opened
- Sun 12:23 AM10.50.0
Opened 10.5, now 10.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 732 games+0.6
- The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 732 games+0.2
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 732 games0.0
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 11.5 | −115 | −115 |
| BetOnline | 10.5 | −114 | −114 |
| Bovada | 10.5 | −115 | −115 |
| DraftKings | 10.5 | −112 | −112 |
| FanDuel | 10.5 | −113 | −113 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
