TE · San Francisco 49ers
Jake Tonges
@ LA · Week 1 · Neutral site
- Line
- 9.5
- Receiving Yards
- Nuvela
- 10.8
- our projection
- Difference
- +1.3
- +14%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 7 of 7
- Line since open
- +1, from 8.5
- Projections updated
- Stats through
- Week 1
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 9.5 | 10.8 | +1.3 | 2 of 5 | 9.5 | level |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 1.2 | −0.3 | 2 of 5 | 1.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 13% | — | — | 2 of 5 | 13% | level |
| Longest Reception | 7.5 | 11 | +3.5 | 3 of 5 | 7.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 2% | 30% | +28% | 0 of 5 | 2% | level |
| Last TD | 4% | 17% | +14% | 0 of 5 | 4% | level |
| 2+ TDs | 1% | — | — | 0 of 5 | — | — |
How the line moved
- Thu 2:29 PM8.5opened
- Thu 5:35 PM9.5+1
Opened 8.5, now 9.5. The move is with our read, which is the thing worth checking before the gap is a reason.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate — read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 562 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 562 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 562 games0
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 562 games0
A role-level tendency across the league — a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards
No games played yet this season.
- Consensus line
- 9.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 10.8
- +1.3 on the line
- Above the line
- —
- vs closing lines
- —
- no closing lines
- Median
- —
- regular season
- Average
- —
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | — | —— | —— |
| Last 5 | — | —— | —— |
| Season | — | —— | —— |
| Last season | 26 | 70%7/10 | 100%6/6 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
No games match that split. Widen one of the cuts above.
Availability
Practice participation through the week, and the teammates whose status changes his workload.
His practice week
- Injury
- Leg
- Game status
- Questionable
- Snap share, last game
- 12%
- Games missed this season
- 0
Workload dependencies
- Brandon AiyukWR · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Out
- Christian KirkWR · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Ir
- Isaac GuerendoRB · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Out
- Jordan JamesRB · other · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Out
- Jordan WatkinsWR · other · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Out
- Kurtis RourkeQB · other · Throws him the ball — a change under center reshapes the passing game.Out
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
SF · San Francisco 49ers
LA · LA
What this report suggests
- Names listed
- 18
- 12 SF · 6 LA
- Ruled out
- 16
- won’t play
- Questionable
- 2
- decided at kickoff
- Touch his workload
- 6
- Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk +4
- His coverage
- —
- not tracked yet
6 names on these lists reach him directly. Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk +4 — flagged in Availability — are the teammates whose status changes his own workload. The rest reach him through the game, not his role.
Across both clubs, 16 ruled out and 2 questionable. A thinner defence argues for more possessions — volume, which is most of a yards prop — though it cuts both ways, since trailing throws more and leading throws less.
Counted from the two lists above rather than typed, so this can’t disagree with them. It reads the report; it does not predict who plays.
Key research points
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Everything below uses 2026 games before Week 1 only — nothing from this game or later. The market lists Jake Tonges at 9.5 receiving yards. Our projection, built from his own games and never from the line, is 10.8. Research, not a pick — the call is yours.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Research context for this week
The factors actually in play this week, and which one swings it.
2 factors in play
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it.
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 47.5
- combined
- SF implied total
- 22
- underdog
- LA implied total
- 25.5
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 34.5s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- —
- no forecast yet
- Conditions
- Neutral site
- Melbourne Cricket Ground
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 64
- 1-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 35.8
- 56% pass
- His receptions
- 5.1
- projected this game
- Red-zone trips
- 3
- 1-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +5
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on — the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How LA defends each position — fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest — and what comparable roles have done against them.
By position
No games played yet this season, so there is nothing to rank a defence by.
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Trey McBride2025 · Wk 18 | 65 |
| AJ Barner2025 · Wk 16 | 49 |
| Kyle Pitts2025 · Wk 17 | 16 |
| Dallas Goedert2025 · Wk 3 | 33 |
| George Kittle2025 · Wk 10 | 84 |
Game log · season
Most recent first — his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Snap% | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | 12% | — | — | — | — | — |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 | −120 | −110 |
| BetOnline | 10.5 | −120 | −108 |
| Bovada | 8.5 | −115 | −115 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 | −108 | −117 |
| Fanatics | 10.5 | −110 | −120 |
| FanDuel | 9.5 | −113 | −113 |
| Fliff | 9.5 | −115 | −125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 | −115 | −115 |
| Kalshi | 14.5 | +156 | −178 |
| Novig | 8.5 | −106 | −106 |
| Partycasino | 8.5 | −120 | −110 |
| Prizepicks | 9.5 | −118 | −118 |
| Prophetx | 9.5 | −104 | −106 |
| Sleeper | 9.5 | −125 | −132 |
| Thescorebet | 9.5 | −120 | −110 |
| Underdog | 9.5 | −107 | −107 |
| Caesars | 9.5 | −121 | −110 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Take this research further
Each question opens in the Research Assistant with this player's context pre-loaded.
