WR · Arizona Cardinals#86
Jalen Brooks
Updated
Jalen Brooks' receiving yards line is 16.5 for Week 7 vs Denver Broncos (Sun, Oct 25); the projection is 16.6. 6 of 8 markets posted.
vs Denver Broncos · Week 7
- Line
- 16.5
- Receiving Yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 16.6
- this week · small sample
- Difference
- +0.1
- +1%
- Lines checked Stale: our last odds check is over an hour old, with a kickoff inside a day
- Markets posted
- 6 of 8
- Line since open
- −1.0, from 17.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 16.5 receiving yards
The line has already dropped 1 since it opened at 17.5, so part of the case for less is already in the price. The doubts are his small share of the targets and his part-time route share.
Line16.5Down 1 since it opened at 17.5 on Wednesday. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.
Over
Why he could top 16.5 receiving yards
- −1SINCE WEDThe line has already dropped 1 since it opened at 17.5, so part of the case for less is already in the price.
- 4.5PT UNDERDOGArizona is a 4.5-point underdog, and teams that trail throw more.
- 26thOF 32Denver lets the ball travel 12.3 air yards a target to receivers this season, the 7th deepest in the league. The league average is 11.2.
Under
Why he could fall short of 16.5
- 2.2TARGETS A GAMEHe gets 2.2 targets a game, 5% of Arizona's total, over 6 games.
- 25%ROUTESHe runs a route on 25% of dropbacks over 6 games (estimated from his snap share).
- 9.2A GAMEHe has averaged 9.2 receiving yards a game over his last 5 games, below this line.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Arizona is missing three tight ends, which frees targets. Across from him, Pat Surtain II (CB) is questionable, and nobody else who usually covers receivers is listed.
BrooksNo injury designation
Around himArizona Cardinals
4 of 31 touch Brooks
This week
- QuestionableCarson BeckQB · backChanges who throws to him
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRHunter LongTEFrees targets
- IRJameson GeersTEFrees targets
- PUPTip ReimanTEFrees targets
Across from himDenver Broncos
3 of 17 touch Brooks
This week
- OutTalanoa HufangaSAF · ankleDeep coverage
- QuestionablePat Surtain IICB · ankleCovers receivers
Off the report this week
- ClearedRiley MossCB · was Q in Wk 6Back on the field
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists3117ShowHide
ARI · Arizona Cardinals
31 listed- Andrew WingardSAF · kneeOut
- Jeremiyah LoveRB · ankleOut
- Jon Gaines IIG · knee, ankleOut
- Walter NolenDT · ankleOut
- Budda BakerS · groin, illnessQuestionable
- Carson BeckQB · backQuestionable
- Darius RobinsonDL · backQuestionable
- Max MeltonCB · kneeQuestionable
- Chase BisontisOT · Not specifiedIR
- Hunter LongTE · Not specifiedIR
- Isaiah AdamsG · Not specifiedIR
- James ConnerRB · Not specifiedIR
- Jameson GeersTE · Not specifiedIR
- Joey BlountSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Kaleb ProctorDT · Not specifiedIR
- Paris Johnson Jr.OT · Not specifiedIR
- Tip ReimanTE · Not specifiedPUP
- Trey BensonRB · Not specifiedIR
- Will JohnsonCB · Not specifiedIR
- Zachary CarterDT · Not specifiedIR
- Andrew BillingsDT · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee)—
- Blake GillikinP · Last listed Wk 6: Q (back)Cleared
- Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSAF · Last listed Wk 4: Out (back)—
- Garrett WilliamsCB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (achilles)—
- Isaac SeumaloG · Last listed Wk 2: Q (shoulder)—
- Josh SweatLB · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
- Karson ShararLB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (hamstring)—
- Kitan CrawfordSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Roy LopezDT · Last listed Wk 3: Q (groin)—
- Wydett Williams Jr.SAF · Last listed Wk 6: Out (concussion)Cleared
- Zaven CollinsLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hip)Cleared
DEN · Denver Broncos
17 listed- Talanoa HufangaSAF · ankleOut
- Jonah ColemanRB · ankleQuestionable
- Pat Surtain IICB · ankleQuestionable
- Caleb LohnerTE · Not specifiedIR
- Frank CrumOT · Not specifiedIR
- Jonah EllissLB · ankleIR
- Levelle BaileyLB · Not specifiedIR
- Matt HenningsenDE · Not specifiedIR
- Michael DeiterC · Not specifiedIR
- Nick GargiuloG · Not specifiedIR
- Pat BryantWR · Not specifiedIR
- Tyler BadieRB · thumbIR
- Jonathon CooperLBInactive
- Dondrea TillmanLB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (hamstring)—
- Marvin Mims Jr.WR · Last listed Wk 3: Q (foot)—
- RJ HarveyRB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (hamstring)—
- Riley MossCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ribs)Cleared
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 5
- Consensus line
- 16.5
- yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 16.6
- +0.1 on the line
- Above the line
- 1 of 5
- 20% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 1
- each week's own close
- Median
- 0
- regular season
- Average
- 9.2
- −7.3 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 16 | 33%1/3 | 100%1/1 |
| Last 5 | 0 | 20%1/5 | 100%1/1 |
| Season | 0 | 20%1/5 | 100%1/1 |
| Last season | 0 | 40%2/5 | 50%1/2 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 5
- of 6
- Average
- 9.2
- yards
- Median
- 0
- yards
- Above 16.5
- 1 of 5
- 20% of the sample
- vs the full 6
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ LAC | — | — | — |
| Week 2 | vs SEA | 0 | — | — |
| Week 3 | @ SF | 0 | — | — |
| Week 4 | @ NYG | 0 | — | — |
| Week 5 | vs DET | 16 | — | — |
| Week 6 | @ LA | 30 | 22.5 | +7.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | aDOT | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | @ LA | 3 | 2 | 30 | 21 | — | 0 |
| Wk 5 | vs DET | 7 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 13.2 | 0 |
| Wk 4 | @ NYG | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 |
| Wk 3 | @ SF | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 |
| Wk 2 | vs SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 |
| Wk 1 | @ LAC | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Comparable players vs Denver
Other wide receivers who faced Denver this season, and how they did against their line.
wide receivers went over their line vs Denver
- Cooper KuppSEA · Week 6Line 22.550Rec ydsOver 22.5Over+27.5
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · Week 6Line 93.5134Rec ydsOver 93.5Over+40.5
- Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · Week 4Line 34.526Rec ydsUnder 34.5Under−8.5
- Mike EvansSF · Week 4Line 43.576Rec ydsOver 43.5Over+32.5
- Davante AdamsLA · Week 3Line 71.5137Rec ydsOver 71.5Over+65.5
- Konata MumpfieldLA · Week 3Line 9.593Rec ydsOver 9.5Over+83.5
- Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · Week 2Line 34.540Rec ydsOver 34.5Over+5.5
- Jakobi MeyersJAX · Week 2Line 37.528Rec ydsUnder 37.5Under−9.5
- Parker WashingtonJAX · Week 2Line 59.598Rec ydsOver 59.5Over+38.5
- Rashee RiceKC · Week 1Line 51.519Rec ydsUnder 51.5Under−32.5
- Tyquan ThorntonKC · Week 1Line 20.50Rec ydsUnder 20.5Under−20.5
- Xavier WorthyKC · Week 1Line 36.518Rec ydsUnder 36.5Under−18.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Denver Broncos defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Denver Broncos actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 19.2 | 18.6 | 20th of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 56% | 62% | 5th of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 142 | 150.3 | 12th of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 7.4 | 8.1 | 11th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 12.3 | 11.2 | 26th of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 3.5 | 4.2 | 6th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 10% | 11% | 13th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 14.9 | 10th of 32 |
| RB | 23.8 | 26th of 32 |
| WRhis position | 28.8 | 6th of 32 |
| TE | 13.2 | 18th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith2025 · Wk 5 | 114 |
| Ja'Marr Chase2025 · Wk 4 | 23 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey2025 · Wk 7 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley2025 · Wk 1 | 27 |
| Tre Tucker2025 · Wk 14 | 24 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 43.5
- combined
- ARI implied total
- 19.5
- underdog
- DEN implied total
- 24
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 29.3s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 3 mph
- Clear
- Conditions
- 84°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 66.5
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 41.8
- 63% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 3.7
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −0.4
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 53%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Brooks sits
If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.
Next up
Reggie VirgilWR · 11% of the snaps
Where his work goes
- Michael WilsonWR+5.3targets
- Trey McBrideTE+1.5targets
- Tyler AllgeierRB+0.7targets
Based on 3 games without him
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 16.5 | 16.6Tank01, median-adjusted | +0.1 | 1 of 5 | 17.5 | −1.0 |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 1.1Nuvela projection | −0.4 | 2 of 5 | 1.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 13% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 14% | −1% |
| Longest Reception | 12.5 | — | — | 3 of 4 incl. 2025 | 12.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 3% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 3% | level |
| Last TD | 4% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 3% | level |
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Wed 3:34 AM17.5opened
- Wed 3:36 PM16.5−1.0
- Thu 1:01 PM17.5+1.0
- Thu 1:03 PM16.5−1.0
- Thu 1:04 PM17.5+1.0
- Sat 11:09 PM16.5−1.0
Opened 17.5, now 16.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 732 games+0.6
- The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 732 games+0.2
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 732 games0.0
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 17.5 | −111 | −118 |
| BetOnline | 16.5 | −118 | −110 |
| BetRivers | 16.5 | −134 | −108 |
| Bovada | 15.5 | −120 | −110 |
| DraftKings | 15.5 | −117 | −107 |
| FanDuel | 16.5 | −113 | −113 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
