WR · Philadelphia Eagles#9
Makai Lemon
Updated
Makai Lemon's receiving yards line is 37.5 for Week 7 vs Dallas Cowboys (Mon, Oct 26); the projection is 35.1. 6 of 8 markets posted.
vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 7
- Line
- 37.5
- Receiving Yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 35.1
- this week
- Difference
- −2.4
- −6%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 6 of 8
- Line since open
- level, from 37.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 37.5 receiving yards
Dallas lets 17% of throws go 20 or more yards this season, the most in the league. The doubts are his recent average and how little of the air yards he draws.
Line37.5Hasn't moved since it opened Sat 5:16 PM PT, at BetOnline and FanDuel.
Over
Why he could top 37.5 receiving yards
- 32ndOF 32Dallas lets 17% of throws go 20 or more yards this season, the most in the league. The league average is 11%.
- 28thOF 32Dallas gives up 9.3 yards a target to receivers this season, the 5th most in the league. The league average is 8.1.
- 4.5PT UNDERDOGPhiladelphia is a 4.5-point underdog, and teams that trail throw more.
Under
Why he could fall short of 37.5
- 21.2A GAMEHe has averaged 21.2 receiving yards a game over his last 6 games, below this line.
- 10%AIR YARDSHe draws 10% of Philadelphia's air yards over 6 games.
- 19.75PHI POINTSPhiladelphia is expected to score 19.75 points, so fewer drives to throw on.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Philadelphia is without three other receivers, so more of the receiver targets go to Lemon. Across from him, Dallas is missing one cornerback, the players who usually cover receivers.
LemonNo injury designation
Around himPhiladelphia Eagles
6 of 26 touch Lemon
This week
- OutDeVonta SmithWR · hamstringFrees targets at his spot
- OutDontayvion WicksWR · ankleFrees targets at his spot
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRJohnny WilsonWRFrees targets at his spot
- IREli StowersTE · quadricepFrees targets
- IRGrant CalcaterraTE · backFrees targets
Show 1 more
- IRJalen HurtsQB · calfChanges who throws to him
Across from himDallas Cowboys
6 of 21 touch Lemon
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRDevin MooreCBCovers receivers
- IRJalen ThompsonDBDeep coverage
- IRP.J. LockeDB · footDeep coverage
Off the report this week
- ClearedAmeer SpeedCB · was Q in Wk 6Back on the field
- ClearedCobie DurantCB · was Out in Wk 6Back on the field
- ClearedJoey Porter Jr.CB · was Q in Wk 6Back on the field
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2621ShowHide
PHI · Philadelphia Eagles
26 listed- DeVonta SmithWR · hamstringOut
- Dontayvion WicksWR · ankleOut
- Michael Carter IICB · abdomenOut
- Nolan SmithLB · concussionOut
- Jalyx HuntLB · knee, ankleQuestionable
- Jonathan GreenardLB · ankleQuestionable
- Saquon BarkleyRB · hamstringQuestionable
- Andre' SamSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Carson SteeleRB · Not specifiedIR
- Eli StowersTE · quadricepIR
- Grant CalcaterraTE · backIR
- Jakorian BennettDB · kneeIR
- Jalen HurtsQB · calfIR
- Johnny WilsonWR · Not specifiedIR
- Landon DickersonG · kneeIR
- Tank BigsbyRB · Not specifiedIR
- Tucker LargeSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Will ShipleyRB · footIR
- A.J. EpenesaLB · Last listed Wk 6: Doubtful (back)Cleared
- Andrew MukubaSAF · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee)—
- Dallas GoedertTE · Last listed Wk 4: Out (knee)—
- Drew KendallC · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)Cleared
- Fred JohnsonOT · Last listed Wk 4: Out (knee)—
- Marcus EppsSAF · Last listed Wk 5: Out (groin)—
- Marquise BrownWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (ankle)—
- Zack BaunLB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (concussion)—
DAL · Dallas Cowboys
21 listed- Dee WintersLB · calfOut
- Drew SheltonOTOut last week
- KaVontae TurpinWR · ribsOut
- DJ RogersTE · Not specifiedIR
- Devin MooreCB · Not specifiedIR
- Jalen ThompsonDB · Not specifiedIR
- Jonathan BullardDE · Not specifiedIR
- Kelvin GilliamDT · Not specifiedIR
- Malik DavisRB · Not specifiedIR
- Marist LiufauLB · forearmIR
- Matt HennessyC · Not specifiedIR
- P.J. LockeDB · footIR
- Princeton FantTE · Not specifiedIR
- Ameer SpeedCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)Cleared
- Cobie DurantCB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)Cleared
- DeMarvion OvershownLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)Cleared
- Joey Porter Jr.CB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Jonathan MingoWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (illness)—
- LT OvertonDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (foot)Cleared
- Malik HookerFS · Last listed Wk 3: Out (forearm)—
- Tyler SmithG · Last listed Wk 5: Q (thumb)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 6
- Consensus line
- 37.5
- yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 35.1
- −2.4 on the line
- Above the line
- 1 of 6
- 17% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 6
- each week's own close
- Median
- 23
- regular season
- Average
- 21.2
- −16.3 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 27 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 27 | 20%1/5 | 40%2/5 |
| Season | 23 | 17%1/6 | 33%2/6 |
| Last season | — | —— | —— |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 6
- of 6
- Average
- 21.2
- yards
- Median
- 23
- yards
- Above 37.5
- 1 of 6
- 17% of the sample
- vs the full 6
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs WAS | -5 | 21.5 | −26.5 |
| Week 2 | @ TEN | 14 | 24.5 | −10.5 |
| Week 3 | @ CHI | 29 | 23.5 | +5.5 |
| Week 4 | vs LA | 27 | 36.5 | −9.5 |
| Week 5 | @ JAX | 43 | 29.5 | +13.5 |
| Week 6 | vs CAR | 19 | 20.5 | −1.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | aDOT | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | vs CAR | 6 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Wk 5 | @ JAX | 7 | 5 | 43 | 18 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Wk 4 | vs LA | 6 | 3 | 27 | 13 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Wk 3 | @ CHI | 4 | 3 | 29 | 19 | — | 0 |
| Wk 2 | @ TEN | 1 | 1 | 14 | 14 | — | 0 |
| Wk 1 | vs WAS | 4 | 3 | -5 | 3 | — | 0 |
Comparable players vs Dallas
Other wide receivers who faced Dallas this season, and how they did against their line.
wide receivers went over their line vs Dallas
- Christian WatsonGB · Week 6Line 75.564Rec ydsUnder 75.5Under−11.5
- Matthew GoldenGB · Week 6Line 67.5104Rec ydsOver 67.5Over+36.5
- Savion WilliamsGB · Week 6Line 5.532Rec ydsOver 5.5Over+26.5
- Chris Godwin Jr.TB · Week 5Line 31.537Rec ydsOver 31.5Over+5.5
- Emeka EgbukaTB · Week 5Line 36.538Rec ydsOver 36.5Over+1.5
- Jaylin NoelHOU · Week 4Line 11.585Rec ydsOver 11.5Over+73.5
- Kayshon BoutteHOU · Week 4Line 23.536Rec ydsOver 23.5Over+12.5
- Nico CollinsHOU · Week 4Line 72.5118Rec ydsOver 72.5Over+45.5
- Chris MooreBAL · Week 3Line 16.54Rec ydsUnder 16.5Under−12.5
- Rashod BatemanBAL · Week 3Line 39.537Rec ydsUnder 39.5Under−2.5
- Stefon DiggsWAS · Week 2Line 47.547Rec ydsUnder 47.5Under−0.5
- Terry McLaurinWAS · Week 2Line 53.550Rec ydsUnder 53.5Under−3.5
- Darnell MooneyNYG · Week 1Line 20.527Rec ydsOver 20.5Over+6.5
- Malachi FieldsNYG · Week 1Line 22.525Rec ydsOver 22.5Over+2.5
- Malik NabersNYG · Week 1Line 56.569Rec ydsOver 56.5Over+12.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Dallas Cowboys defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Dallas Cowboys actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 18.2 | 18.6 | 14th of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 65% | 62% | 23rd of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 168.7 | 150.3 | 24th of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 9.3 | 8.1 | 28th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 13.3 | 11.2 | 30th of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 5 | 4.2 | 26th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 17% | 11% | 32nd of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 21.3 | 28th of 32 |
| RB | 23.2 | 22nd of 32 |
| WRhis position | 36.2 | 26th of 32 |
| TE | 12.8 | 16th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Tre Tucker2025 · Wk 11 | 47 |
| Isaiah Hodgins2025 · Wk 18 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson2025 · Wk 15 | 22 |
| DeVonta Smith2025 · Wk 12 | 89 |
| A.J. Brown2025 · Wk 12 | 110 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 44
- combined
- PHI implied total
- 19.75
- underdog
- DAL implied total
- 24.25
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 29.6s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 5 mph
- Clear
- Conditions
- 58°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 58
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 38.1
- 66% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 2.7
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −1.6
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 81%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Lemon sits
If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.
Next up
Darius CooperWR · 73% of the snaps
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 37.5 | 35.1Tank01, median-adjusted | −2.4 | 1 of 5 | 37.5 | level |
| Receptions | 4.5 | 2.9Nuvela projection | −1.6 | 1 of 5 | 4.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 26% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 16% | +10% |
| Longest Reception | 16.5 | 14.0Nuvela | −2.5 | 2 of 5 | 16.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 6% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 3% | +2% |
| Last TD | 8% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 5% | +3% |
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Sat 5:16 PM37.5opened
- Sat 8:04 PM37.50.0
Opened 37.5, now 37.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 732 games+0.6
- The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 732 games+0.2
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 732 games0.0
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 37.5 | −114 | −114 |
| BetRivers | 38.5 | −113 | −118 |
| DraftKings | 38.5 | −111 | −113 |
| FanDuel | 37.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
