WR · New England Patriots
A.J. Brown
Updated
A.J. Brown's receiving yards line is 69.5 for Week 7 at Chicago Bears (Thu, Oct 22); the projection is 60.8. 6 of 8 markets posted.
@ Chicago Bears · Week 7Final
- Line
- 69.5
- Receiving Yards · pregame line
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 60.8
- this week · pregame
- Result
- 48
- final result
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 6 of 8
- Line since open
- +1.0, from 68.5
- Projections updated
- Stats before
- Week 7
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 69.5 | 60.8Tank01, median-adjusted | −8.7 | 1 of 5 incl. 2025 | 68.5 | +1.0 |
| Receptions | 5.5 | 5.0Tank01 projection | −0.5 | 1 of 5 incl. 2025 | 4.5 | +1.0 |
| Anytime TD | 42% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 incl. 2025 | 42% | level |
| Longest Reception | 25.5 | 25.3Nuvela | −0.2 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 24.5 | +1.0 |
| 1st TD | 8% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 8% | level |
| Last TD | 11% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 incl. 2025 | 11% | −1% |
| 2+ TDs | No line was posted | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line was posted | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Mon 5:20 AM68.5opened
- Mon 5:20 AM60.5−8.0
- Mon 5:20 AM61.5+1.0
- Mon 5:13 PM68.5+7.0Brown (ankle) was listed as limited on Monday's estimated practice report.
- Wed 5:15 PM71.5+3.0
- Thu 5:08 PM69.5−2.0
Opened 68.5, now 69.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 732 games+0.6
- The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 732 games+0.2
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 732 games0.0
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 3
- Consensus line
- 69.5
- yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 60.8
- −8.7 on the line
- Above the line
- 0 of 2
- 0% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 0 of 2
- each week's own close
- Median
- 26.5
- regular season
- Average
- 26.5
- −43.0 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 27 | 0%0/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 41 | 20%1/5 | 40%2/5 |
| Season | 26.5 | 0%0/2 | 0%0/2 |
| Last season | 68 | 47%7/15 | 53%8/15 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 2
- of 2
- Average
- 26.5
- yards
- Median
- 26.5
- yards
- Above 69.5
- 0 of 2
- 0% of the sample
- vs the full 2
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ SEA | 26 | 65.5 | −39.5 |
| Week 6 | vs NYJ | 27 | 52.5 | −25.5 |
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 76%
- Games missed this season
- 4
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
NE · New England Patriots
CHI · Chicago Bears
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 50.5
- combined
- NE implied total
- 23.75
- underdog
- CHI implied total
- 26.75
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 30.9s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 3 mph
- Clear
- Conditions
- 64°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 61.3
- 7-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 36.9
- 60% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 3.1
- 7-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +0.1
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Chicago Bears defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Chicago Bears actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 16.3 | 18.7 | 6th of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 60% | 62% | 13th of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 159.8 | 150.4 | 22nd of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 9.8 | 8.1 | 30th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 12.5 | 11.2 | 28th of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 4.5 | 4.2 | 23rd of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 13% | 11% | 27th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 18 | 20th of 32 |
| RB | 17 | 3rd of 32 |
| WRhis position | 32.5 | 18th of 32 |
| TE | 10.5 | 9th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson2026 · Wk 2 | 55 |
| Drake London2026 · Wk 6 | 62 |
| DeVonta Smith2026 · Wk 3 | 65 |
| Garrett Wilson2026 · Wk 4 | 27 |
| Ja'Marr Chase2025 · Wk 9 | 111 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | aDOT | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | vs NYJ | 10 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | @ SEA | 4 | 3 | 26 | 14 | — | 0 |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 68.5 | −140 | +105 |
| BetOnline | 72.5 | −120 | −108 |
| BetRivers | 68.5 | −115 | −115 |
| Bovada | 79.5 | +120 | −160 |
| DraftKings | 70.5 | −111 | −113 |
| FanDuel | 69.5 | −113 | −113 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.