WR · Denver Broncos#19
Marvin Mims Jr.
Updated
Marvin Mims Jr.'s receiving yards line is 15.5 for Week 7 at Arizona Cardinals (Sun, Oct 25); the projection is 14.7. 6 of 8 markets posted.
@ Arizona Cardinals · Week 7
- Line
- 15.5
- Receiving Yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 14.7
- this week
- Difference
- −0.8
- −5%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 6 of 8
- Line since open
- +3.0, from 12.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 15.5 receiving yards
Arizona gives up 9.9 yards a target to receivers this season, the second most in the league. The doubts are his part-time route share and his recent output against this line.
Line15.5Up 3 since it opened at 12.5 on Wednesday. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.
Over
Why he could top 15.5 receiving yards
- 31stOF 32Arizona gives up 9.9 yards a target to receivers this season, the second most in the league. The league average is 8.1.
- 27thOF 32Arizona lets the ball travel 12.4 air yards a target to receivers this season, the 6th deepest in the league. The league average is 11.2.
Under
Why he could fall short of 15.5
- 30%ROUTESHe runs a route on 30% of dropbacks over 4 games (estimated from his snap share).
- 0/4GAMESHe has not gone over 15.5 in any of his 4 games.
- 2.2TARGETS A GAMEHe gets 2.2 targets a game, 8% of Denver's total, over 4 games.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Denver is without receiver Pat Bryant, so more of the receiver targets go to Mims. Across from him, Arizona is missing one cornerback, the players who usually cover receivers.
MimsNo injury designation
Around himDenver Broncos
2 of 16 touch Mims
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRPat BryantWRFrees targets at his spot
- IRCaleb LohnerTEFrees targets
Across from himArizona Cardinals
7 of 31 touch Mims
This week
- OutAndrew WingardSAF · kneeDeep coverage
- QuestionableBudda BakerS · groin, illnessDeep coverage
- QuestionableMax MeltonCB · kneeCovers receivers
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRJoey BlountSAFDeep coverage
- IRWill JohnsonCBCovers receivers
Off the report this week
- ClearedKitan CrawfordSAF · was Q in Wk 6Back on the field
- ClearedWydett Williams Jr.SAF · was Out in Wk 6Back on the field
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists1631ShowHide
DEN · Denver Broncos
16 listed- Talanoa HufangaSAF · ankleOut
- Jonah ColemanRB · ankleQuestionable
- Pat Surtain IICB · ankleQuestionable
- Caleb LohnerTE · Not specifiedIR
- Frank CrumOT · Not specifiedIR
- Jonah EllissLB · ankleIR
- Levelle BaileyLB · Not specifiedIR
- Matt HenningsenDE · Not specifiedIR
- Michael DeiterC · Not specifiedIR
- Nick GargiuloG · Not specifiedIR
- Pat BryantWR · Not specifiedIR
- Tyler BadieRB · thumbIR
- Jonathon CooperLBInactive
- Dondrea TillmanLB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (hamstring)—
- RJ HarveyRB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (hamstring)—
- Riley MossCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ribs)Cleared
ARI · Arizona Cardinals
31 listed- Andrew WingardSAF · kneeOut
- Jeremiyah LoveRB · ankleOut
- Jon Gaines IIG · knee, ankleOut
- Walter NolenDT · ankleOut
- Budda BakerS · groin, illnessQuestionable
- Carson BeckQB · backQuestionable
- Darius RobinsonDL · backQuestionable
- Max MeltonCB · kneeQuestionable
- Chase BisontisOT · Not specifiedIR
- Hunter LongTE · Not specifiedIR
- Isaiah AdamsG · Not specifiedIR
- James ConnerRB · Not specifiedIR
- Jameson GeersTE · Not specifiedIR
- Joey BlountSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Kaleb ProctorDT · Not specifiedIR
- Paris Johnson Jr.OT · Not specifiedIR
- Tip ReimanTE · Not specifiedPUP
- Trey BensonRB · Not specifiedIR
- Will JohnsonCB · Not specifiedIR
- Zachary CarterDT · Not specifiedIR
- Andrew BillingsDT · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee)—
- Blake GillikinP · Last listed Wk 6: Q (back)Cleared
- Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSAF · Last listed Wk 4: Out (back)—
- Garrett WilliamsCB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (achilles)—
- Isaac SeumaloG · Last listed Wk 2: Q (shoulder)—
- Josh SweatLB · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
- Karson ShararLB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (hamstring)—
- Kitan CrawfordSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Roy LopezDT · Last listed Wk 3: Q (groin)—
- Wydett Williams Jr.SAF · Last listed Wk 6: Out (concussion)Cleared
- Zaven CollinsLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hip)Cleared
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 4
- Consensus line
- 15.5
- yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 14.7
- −0.8 on the line
- Above the line
- 0 of 4
- 0% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 8
- regular season
- Average
- 7.3
- −8.3 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 10 | 0%0/3 | 50%1/2 |
| Last 5 | 10 | 0%0/5 | 33%1/3 |
| Season | 8 | 0%0/4 | 33%1/3 |
| Last season | 10 | 40%6/15 | 36%5/14 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 4
- of 4
- Average
- 7.3
- yards
- Median
- 8
- yards
- Above 15.5
- 0 of 4
- 0% of the sample
- vs the full 4
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ KC | 0 | 10.5 | −10.5 |
| Week 4 | @ SF | 10 | — | — |
| Week 5 | @ LAC | 6 | 13.5 | −7.5 |
| Week 6 | vs SEA | 13 | 8.5 | +4.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | aDOT | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | vs SEA | 4 | 2 | 13 | 8 | — | 0 |
| Wk 5 | @ LAC | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | — | 0 |
| Wk 4 | @ SF | 3 | 1 | 10 | 10 | — | 0 |
| Wk 1 | @ KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 |
Comparable players vs Arizona
Other wide receivers who faced Arizona this season, and how they did against their line.
wide receivers went under their line vs Arizona
- Davante AdamsLA · Week 6Line 58.539Rec ydsUnder 58.5Under−19.5
- Puka NacuaLA · Week 6Line 94.580Rec ydsUnder 94.5Under−14.5
- Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · Week 5Line 81.569Rec ydsUnder 81.5Under−12.5
- Jameson WilliamsDET · Week 5Line 53.547Rec ydsUnder 53.5Under−6.5
- Darnell MooneyNYG · Week 4Line 20.50Rec ydsUnder 20.5Under−20.5
- Malachi FieldsNYG · Week 4Line 23.552Rec ydsOver 23.5Over+28.5
- Malik NabersNYG · Week 4Line 54.5112Rec ydsOver 54.5Over+57.5
- Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · Week 3Line 40.580Rec ydsOver 40.5Over+39.5
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · Week 2Line 81.5155Rec ydsOver 81.5Over+73.5
- Rashid ShaheedSEA · Week 2Line 23.535Rec ydsOver 23.5Over+11.5
- Quentin JohnstonLAC · Week 1Line 43.517Rec ydsUnder 43.5Under−26.5
- Tre HarrisLAC · Week 1Line 26.520Rec ydsUnder 26.5Under−6.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Arizona Cardinals defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Arizona Cardinals actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 15.5 | 18.6 | 4th of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 60% | 62% | 14th of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 152.8 | 150.3 | 20th of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 9.9 | 8.1 | 31st of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 12.4 | 11.2 | 27th of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 6 | 4.2 | 32nd of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 11% | 11% | 20th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 21.6 | 29th of 32 |
| RB | 20.6 | 16th of 32 |
| WRhis position | 34.9 | 23rd of 32 |
| TE | 19.1 | 28th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| George Pickens2025 · Wk 9 | 79 |
| Puka Nacua2026 · Wk 6 | 80 |
| Romeo Doubs2025 · Wk 7 | 72 |
| Jameson Williams2026 · Wk 5 | 47 |
| CeeDee Lamb2025 · Wk 9 | 85 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 43.5
- combined
- DEN implied total
- 24
- favored
- ARI implied total
- 19.5
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 30s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 3 mph
- Clear
- Conditions
- 84°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 57
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 34.2
- 60% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 2.8
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −3.1
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- Last listed Wk 3: Q (foot)
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 27%
- Games missed this season
- 2
If Mims sits
If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.
Next up
Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · 26% of the snaps
Where his work goes
- Jaylen WaddleWR+3.2targets
- RJ HarveyRB+2.2targets
- Courtland SuttonWR+1.2targets
- Tyler BadieRB+1targets
Based on 2 games without him
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 15.5 | 14.7Tank01, median-adjusted | −0.8 | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 12.5 | +3.0 |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 1.3Nuvela projection | −0.2 | 3 of 5 incl. 2025 | 1.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 16% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 16% | level |
| Longest Reception | 11.5 | 9.2Nuvela | −2.3 | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 10.5 | +1.0 |
| 1st TD | 4% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 4% | level |
| Last TD | 4% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 4% | level |
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Wed 3:34 AM12.5opened
- Thu 1:04 PM14.5+2.0
- Sat 11:09 PM15.5+1.0
Opened 12.5, now 15.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 732 games+0.6
- The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 732 games+0.2
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 732 games0.0
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 12.5 | −115 | −115 |
| BetOnline | 15.5 | −118 | −110 |
| BetRivers | 12.5 | −125 | −117 |
| Bovada | 15.5 | −120 | −110 |
| DraftKings | 15.5 | −116 | −108 |
| FanDuel | 14.5 | −113 | −113 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
