nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 2 · SUNDAY · FINAL

Dolphins vs 49ers Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20 · 1:25 PM PT
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor · 69F, 5 mph wind

The game in numbers

  • +2.1Pass rate over expected
  • 13thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Dolphins15.515.4−0.1
49ers29.525.9−3.6
Game total44.541.4−3.1

The 49ers carry 97% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

147 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props143

Dolphins · Away6 players

RECEPTIONS
3.5MARKET−1.2WIDE2.3Nuvela
Actual 4.0 · final resultRECEIVING YARDS
34.5MARKET−8.3WIDE26.2Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 43.0 · final resultLONGEST RECEPTION
17.5MARKET−6.1WIDE11.4Nuvela
Actual 23.0 · final result1ST TD
4%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
20%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Didn't score · final resultLAST TD
6%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 9 players · 27 props

49ers · Home7 players

Depth and touchdown only · 5 players · 15 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
44.5MARKET−3.1GAP41.441.4
Season range 34-40
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
SF by 12.5MARKET+2.0GAP10.5SF by 10.5
Season range 14-20

Team props2

Dolphins · Away1 market

DolphinsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
15.5MARKET−0.1GAP15.4Nuvela
Season range 13-13

49ers · Home1 market

49ersTEAM TOTAL POINTS
29.5MARKET−3.6GAP25.9Nuvela
Season range 27-27