RB · Miami Dolphins
Ollie Gordon II
Updated
Ollie Gordon II's rushing yards line is 52.5 for Week 7 at New York Jets (Sun, Oct 25); the projection is 45.4. 10 of 11 markets posted.
@ New York Jets · Week 7
- Line
- 52.5
- Rushing Yards
- Nuvela projection
- 45.4
- this week
- Difference
- −7.1
- −14%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 10 of 11
- Line since open
- +3.0, from 49.5
- Projections updated
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 34% | Market only | — | 3 of 5 incl. 2025 | 35% | −1% |
| Rushing Yards | 52.5 | 45.4Nuvela projection | −7.1 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 49.5 | +3.0 |
| Rush Attempts | 13.5 | 13.9Tank01 projection | +0.4 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 13.5 | level |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 63.5 | 66.9Tank01, median-adjusted | +3.4 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 60.5 | +3.0 |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 2.6Nuvela projection | +1.1 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 1.5 | level |
| Receiving Yards | 7.5 | 7.3Tank01, median-adjusted | −0.2 | 1 of 5 incl. 2025 | 7.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 11% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 12% | −1% |
| Longest Rush | 13.5 | 16.0Nuvela | +2.5 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 12.5 | +1.0 |
| Last TD | 10% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 10% | level |
| Longest Reception | 6.5 | 5.3Nuvela | −1.2 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 6.5 | level |
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Wed 8:07 PM49.5opened
- Thu 4:00 PM50.5+1.0
- Thu 4:00 PM52.5+2.0
- Thu 4:00 PM50.5−2.0
- Thu 10:01 PM52.5+2.0
- Fri 10:02 AM52.50.0
Opened 49.5, now 52.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 732 games−0.1
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 732 games−0.1
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 732 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Rushing Yards, last 4
- Consensus line
- 52.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 45.4
- −7.1 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 4
- 50% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 3 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 64.5
- regular season
- Average
- 59
- +6.5 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 88 | 67%2/3 | 100%3/3 |
| Last 5 | 64.5 | 50%2/4 | 100%3/3 |
| Season | 64.5 | 50%2/4 | 100%3/3 |
| Last season | 8 | 0%0/17 | 14%2/14 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 4
- of 5
- Average
- 59
- yards
- Median
- 64.5
- yards
- Above 52.5
- 2 of 4
- 50% of the sample
- vs the full 5
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Rushing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ LV | — | — | — |
| Week 2 | @ SF | 7 | — | — |
| Week 3 | vs KC | 41 | 9.5 | +31.5 |
| Week 4 | @ MIN | 100 | 24.5 | +75.5 |
| Week 5 | vs CIN | 88 | 42.5 | +45.5 |
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 65%
- Games missed this season
- 0
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
MIA · Miami Dolphins
NYJ · New York Jets
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 39.5
- combined
- MIA implied total
- 17.5
- underdog
- NYJ implied total
- 22
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 31.1s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 2 mph
- Clear
- Conditions
- 62°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 54.8
- 5-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 32.2
- 59% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 2.4
- 5-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −11.1
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How New York Jets defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What New York Jets actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 25.3 | 21.9 | 30th of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 105.8 | 89.5 | 27th of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 4.2 | 4.1 | 19th of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 14% | 17% | 26th of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 11% | 11% | 16th of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 20% | 23% | 21st of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 14.9 | 11th of 32 |
| RBhis position | 21.9 | 19th of 32 |
| WR | 30.5 | 13th of 32 |
| TE | 9.8 | 6th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rush yds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson2025 · Wk 13 | 142 |
| Javonte Williams2025 · Wk 5 | 135 |
| Bucky Irving2025 · Wk 3 | 66 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs2026 · Wk 3 | 99 |
| Ray Davis2025 · Wk 18 | 151 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Rush yds | YPC | Long | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 5 | vs CIN | 18 | 88 | 4.9 | 22 | 0 | 1 |
| Wk 4 | @ MIN | 9 | 100 | 11.1 | 53 | 2 | 1 |
| Wk 3 | vs KC | 17 | 41 | 2.4 | 11 | 3 | 1 |
| Wk 2 | @ SF | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | @ LV | — | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Rushing Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 50.5 | −115 | −115 |
| BetOnline | 52.5 | −114 | −114 |
| BetRivers | 52.5 | −109 | −132 |
| Bovada | 52.5 | −115 | −115 |
| DraftKings | 52.5 | −111 | −113 |
| FanDuel | 50.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.