RB · San Francisco 49ers#26
Kaelon Black
Kaelon Black (RB, SF) props research: on bye in Week 8; hit rates, game log, usage and splits, with lines and projections back for Week 9.
On bye in Week 8
Next game: Week 9 vs Las Vegas Raiders, Nov 8
- Line
- Bye week
- Rushing Yards
- Projection
- Bye week
- no game this week
- Difference
- Bye week
- Lines checked
- —
- Markets posted
- No game this week
- Projections updated
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
San Francisco is without running back Isaac Guerendo, so more of the backfield work stays with Black. Across from him, Las Vegas is missing one linebacker and one defensive lineman, the players who usually stop the run.
BlackNo injury designation
Around himSan Francisco 49ers
8 of 37 touch Black
Out long term · already in his recent games
- PUPIsaac GuerendoRBFrees carries and catches out of the backfield
- IRAusten PleasantsOLWeakens his run blocking
- IRBrett TothGWeakens his run blocking
Show 5 more
- IRDe'Zhaun StriblingWRFrees targets
- IRDemarcus RobinsonWRFrees targets
- IRJake TongesTEFrees targets
- IRNick ZakeljOTWeakens his run blocking
- IRRicky PearsallWRFrees targets
Across from himLas Vegas Raiders
3 of 21 touch Black
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRBrennan JacksonLBTackles and covers backs
- IRChigozie AnusiemDBCovers backs downfield
- IRKeyron CrawfordDEDefends the run
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists3721ShowHide
SF · San Francisco 49ers
37 listed- Alfred CollinsDT · Not specifiedIR
- Andrew Farmer IILB · Not specifiedIR
- Austen PleasantsOL · Not specifiedIR
- Brett TothG · Not specifiedIR
- C.J. WestDT · Not specifiedIR
- Darrick ForrestSAF · Not specifiedIR
- De'Zhaun StriblingWR · Not specifiedIR
- Demarcus RobinsonWR · Not specifiedIR
- Isaac GuerendoRB · Not specifiedPUP
- Jake TongesTE · Not specifiedIR
- Mikail KamaraDE · Not specifiedIR
- Nate HobbsCB · Not specifiedIR
- Nick MartinLB · Not specifiedIR
- Nick ZakeljOT · Not specifiedIR
- Ricky PearsallWR · Not specifiedIR
- Sam OkuayinonuDT · Not specifiedIR
- Victor DimukejeLB · Not specifiedIR
- Eugene AsanteLBInactive
- Kurtis RourkeQBInactive
- Christian KirkWR · Last listed Wk 7: Q (calf)—
- Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · Last listed Wk 7: Out (hamstring)—
- Dre GreenlawLB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (quadricep)—
- Eddy PineiroK · Last listed Wk 2: Q (illness)—
- Garret WallowLB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (hamstring)—
- Gracen HaltonDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (quadricep)—
- Jaden DuggerLB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (shoulder)—
- James Thompson Jr.DT · Last listed Wk 5: Out (ankle)—
- Keion WhiteDE · Last listed Wk 4: Q (hamstring)—
- Kyle JuszczykFB · Last listed Wk 5: Out (knee)—
- Luke GiffordLB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (groin)—
- Marques SigleSAF · Last listed Wk 7: Out (ankle)—
- Mike EvansWR · Last listed Wk 7: Out (ribs, achilles)—
- Mykel WilliamsDE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
- Nick BosaDE · Last listed Wk 7: Out (knee, calf)—
- Romello HeightDE · Last listed Wk 3: Out (hand)—
- Siran NealDB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)—
- Upton StoutCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (shoulder)—
LV · Las Vegas Raiders
21 listed- Brennan JacksonLB · Not specifiedIR
- Carter RunyonTE · Not specifiedIR
- Chase RobertsWR · Not specifiedIR
- Chigozie AnusiemDB · Not specifiedIR
- Chris CollierRB · Not specifiedIR
- Jack BechWR · Not specifiedIR
- Justin PickettG · Not specifiedIR
- Keyron CrawfordDE · Not specifiedIR
- Aidan O'ConnellQB · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
- Ashton JeantyRB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ankle, foot)—
- Brock BowersTE · Last listed Wk 3: Q (knee)—
- Darien PorterCB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (foot)—
- Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR · Last listed Wk 7: Out (hamstring)—
- Jackson Powers-JohnsonC · Last listed Wk 4: Out (groin)—
- Jalen NailorWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (concussion)—
- Kwity PayeDE · Last listed Wk 3: Q (illness)—
- Mike Washington Jr.RB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (foot, back)—
- Quay WalkerLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (chest)—
- Tonka HemingwayDT · Last listed Wk 6: Out (concussion)—
- Trey Zuhn IIIG · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
- Treydan StukesSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Out (concussion)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Rushing Yards, last 7
- Consensus line
- —
- yards
- Projection
- —
- Above the line
- —
- vs closing lines
- 4 of 7
- each week's own close
- Median
- 25
- regular season
- Average
- 33.3
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 34 | —— | 100%3/3 |
| Last 5 | 17 | —— | 60%3/5 |
| Season | 25 | —— | 57%4/7 |
| Last season | — | —— | —— |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 7
- of 7
- Average
- 33.3
- yards
- Median
- 25
- yards
- Above the line
- —
- vs the full 7
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Rushing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ LA | 65 | 9.5 | +55.5 |
| Week 2 | vs MIA | 25 | 38.5 | −13.5 |
| Week 3 | vs ARI | 17 | 32.5 | −15.5 |
| Week 4 | vs DEN | 13 | 21.5 | −8.5 |
| Week 5 | @ SEA | 16 | 14.5 | +1.5 |
| Week 6 | vs WAS | 34 | 24.5 | +9.5 |
| Week 7 | @ ATL | 63 | 28.5 | +34.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Rush yds | YPC | Long | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 | @ ATL | 12 | 63 | 5.2 | 30 | 1 | 1 |
| Wk 6 | vs WAS | 8 | 34 | 4.2 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 5 | @ SEA | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 4 | vs DEN | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 3 | vs ARI | 4 | 17 | 4.2 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | vs MIA | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | @ LA | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 14 | 1 | 0 |
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Las Vegas Raiders defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What Las Vegas Raiders actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 24.1 | 22.1 | 25th of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 124.9 | 91.1 | 32nd of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 5.2 | 4.1 | 32nd of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 14% | 17% | 30th of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 14% | 11% | 30th of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 22% | 23% | 16th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 20.1 | 28th of 32 |
| RBhis position | 25.4 | 27th of 32 |
| WR | 31.4 | 17th of 32 |
| TE | 19.6 | 29th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rush yds |
|---|---|
| De'Von Achane2026 · Wk 1 | 36 |
| Javonte Williams2025 · Wk 11 | 93 |
| Kenneth Walker III2026 · Wk 4 | 177 |
| Jonathan Taylor2025 · Wk 5 | 66 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson2026 · Wk 5 | 64 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 48.5
- combined
- SF implied total
- 29
- favored
- LV implied total
- 19.5
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 31.7s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- —
- no forecast yet
- Conditions
- Outdoor
- outdoor
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 57.3
- 7-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 33.1
- 58% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 3.3
- 7-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +1.9
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- Last listed Wk 2: Q (groin)
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 47%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Black sits
If a back sits, his carries usually split into two jobs rather than going to one player: early downs and the goal line, and passing downs.
Next up
Jordan JamesRB · 3% of the snaps
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | No game this week | |||||
| Rushing Yards | No game this week | |||||
| Rush Attempts | No game this week | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No game this week | |||||
| Receptions | No game this week | |||||
| Receiving Yards | No game this week | |||||
| 1st TD | No game this week | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No game this week | |||||
| Longest Rush | No game this week | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
The club is on bye, so there is no line to track this week. The open and every move appear here for its next game.
Moves with this
How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
No game this week, so there are no sportsbook lines.
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
About these numbers
Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.
- Where do Kaelon Black's prop lines come from?
- From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Kaelon Black's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
- How is Kaelon Black's projection made?
- The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Kaelon Black's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.
