TE · Seattle Seahawks
AJ Barner
Updated
AJ Barner's receiving yards line is 24.5 for Week 7 vs Kansas City Chiefs (Sun, Oct 25); the projection is 24.2. 6 of 7 markets posted.
vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7
- Line
- 24.5
- Receiving Yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 24.2
- this week
- Difference
- −0.3
- −1%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 6 of 7
- Line since open
- −1.0, from 25.5
- Projections updated
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 24.5 | 24.2Tank01, median-adjusted | −0.3 | 1 of 5 | 25.5 | −1.0 |
| Receptions | 2.5 | 2.9Nuvela projection | +0.4 | 3 of 5 | 2.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 27% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 26% | +1% |
| Longest Reception | 12.5 | 10.7Nuvela | −1.8 | 1 of 5 | 12.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 7% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 7% | level |
| Last TD | 8% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 8% | level |
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Tue 3:34 AM25.5opened
- Fri 3:00 PM24.5−1.0
Opened 25.5, now 24.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 730 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 730 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 6
- Consensus line
- 24.5
- yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 24.2
- −0.3 on the line
- Above the line
- 1 of 6
- 17% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 6
- each week's own close
- Median
- 14.5
- regular season
- Average
- 23
- −1.5 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 16 | 0%0/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 16 | 20%1/5 | 40%2/5 |
| Season | 14.5 | 17%1/6 | 33%2/6 |
| Last season | 27 | 59%10/17 | 53%9/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 6
- of 6
- Average
- 23
- yards
- Median
- 14.5
- yards
- Above 24.5
- 1 of 6
- 17% of the sample
- vs the full 6
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs NE | 13 | 25.5 | −12.5 |
| Week 2 | @ ARI | 8 | 22.5 | −14.5 |
| Week 3 | @ WAS | 69 | 20.5 | +48.5 |
| Week 4 | vs LAC | 12 | 30.5 | −18.5 |
| Week 5 | vs SF | 20 | 22.5 | −2.5 |
| Week 6 | @ DEN | 16 | 12.5 | +3.5 |
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 93%
- Games missed this season
- 0
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
SEA · Seattle Seahawks
KC · Kansas City Chiefs
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 42.5
- combined
- SEA implied total
- 22.5
- favored
- KC implied total
- 20
- underdog
- Projected script
- Close
- tight spread
- Pace
- 31.6s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 2 mph
- Clouds
- Conditions
- 54°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 62.5
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 35.8
- 57% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 3.2
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −4.3
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Kansas City Chiefs defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Kansas City Chiefs actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 11.4 | 7.7 | 31st of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 68% | 72% | 10th of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 73.2 | 54.2 | 26th of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 6.4 | 7 | 12th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 5.9 | 6.1 | 14th of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 3.7 | 4.8 | 4th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 12% | 11% | 25th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 11.6 | 3rd of 32 |
| RB | 18.7 | 9th of 32 |
| WR | 21.2 | 1st of 32 |
| TEhis position | 20 | 30th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta2025 · Wk 6 | 55 |
| Tyler Warren2026 · Wk 2 | 21 |
| Grant Calcaterra2025 · Wk 2 | 6 |
| Michael Mayer2026 · Wk 4 | 82 |
| Theo Johnson2025 · Wk 3 | 10 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Snap% | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | @ DEN | 93% | 4 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 0 |
| Wk 5 | vs SF | 95% | 5 | 3 | 20 | 8 | 0 |
| Wk 4 | vs LAC | 90% | 3 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| Wk 3 | @ WAS | 91% | 9 | 5 | 69 | 32 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | @ ARI | 80% | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | vs NE | 88% | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 0 |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 25.5 | −120 | −110 |
| BetOnline | 24.5 | −114 | −114 |
| BetRivers | 24.5 | −112 | −118 |
| Bovada | 24.5 | −115 | −115 |
| DraftKings | 24.5 | −112 | −112 |
| FanDuel | 24.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.