TE · Las Vegas Raiders
Michael Mayer
Updated
Michael Mayer's receiving yards line is 30.5 for Week 7 vs Los Angeles Rams (Sun, Oct 25); the projection is 27.1. 6 of 7 markets posted.
vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 7 · Dome
- Line
- 30.5
- Receiving Yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 27.1
- this week
- Difference
- −3.4
- −11%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 6 of 7
- Line since open
- +1.0, from 29.5
- Projections updated
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 30.5 | 27.1Tank01, median-adjusted | −3.4 | 3 of 5 | 29.5 | +1.0 |
| Receptions | 3.5 | 3.5Nuvela projection | 0.0 | 2 of 5 | 3.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 25% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 22% | +3% |
| Longest Reception | 14.5 | 14.4Nuvela | −0.1 | 3 of 5 | 13.5 | +1.0 |
| 1st TD | 5% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 5% | +1% |
| Last TD | 7% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 6% | +1% |
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Tue 8:03 PM29.5opened
- Wed 3:34 AM29.50.0
- Thu 1:26 PM30.5+1.0
- Fri 5:45 AM29.5−1.0
- Fri 2:59 PM30.5+1.0
Opened 29.5, now 30.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 730 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 730 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 6
- Consensus line
- 30.5
- yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 27.1
- −3.4 on the line
- Above the line
- 4 of 6
- 67% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 3 of 6
- each week's own close
- Median
- 32
- regular season
- Average
- 44.3
- +13.8 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 82 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 32 | 60%3/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Season | 32 | 67%4/6 | 50%3/6 |
| Last season | 14 | 31%4/13 | 39%5/13 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 6
- of 6
- Average
- 44.3
- yards
- Median
- 32
- yards
- Above 30.5
- 4 of 6
- 67% of the sample
- vs the full 6
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs MIA | 32 | 41.5 | −9.5 |
| Week 2 | @ LAC | 23 | 44.5 | −21.5 |
| Week 3 | @ NO | 32 | 20.5 | +11.5 |
| Week 4 | vs KC | 82 | 25.5 | +56.5 |
| Week 5 | @ NE | 2 | 28.5 | −26.5 |
| Week 6 | vs BUF | 95 | 27.5 | +67.5 |
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 79%
- Games missed this season
- 0
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
LV · Las Vegas Raiders
LA · Los Angeles Rams
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 48.5
- combined
- LV implied total
- 22.5
- underdog
- LA implied total
- 26
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 29.3s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- Indoors
- no wind factor
- Conditions
- Dome
- climate controlled
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 63
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 38.7
- 62% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 4.2
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −2.5
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Los Angeles Rams defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Los Angeles Rams actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 7.7 | 7.7 | 17th of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 52% | 72% | 2nd of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 29.8 | 54.2 | 3rd of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 3.9 | 7 | 1st of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 5.7 | 6.1 | 12th of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 4.7 | 4.8 | 16th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 9% | 11% | 12th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 16.6 | 16th of 32 |
| RB | 19.7 | 12th of 32 |
| WR | 26.9 | 4th of 32 |
| TEhis position | 8.3 | 2nd of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Trey McBride2026 · Wk 6 | 53 |
| AJ Barner2025 · Wk 16 | 49 |
| Kyle Pitts2025 · Wk 17 | 16 |
| Dallas Goedert2025 · Wk 3 | 33 |
| Tyler Warren2025 · Wk 4 | 70 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Snap% | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | vs BUF | 79% | 9 | 7 | 95 | 28 | 0 |
| Wk 5 | @ NE | 65% | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Wk 4 | vs KC | 88% | 10 | 8 | 82 | 17 | 0 |
| Wk 3 | @ NO | 87% | 3 | 3 | 32 | 18 | 1 |
| Wk 2 | @ LAC | 84% | 4 | 3 | 23 | 10 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | vs MIA | 81% | 7 | 6 | 32 | 14 | 0 |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 30.5 | −115 | −115 |
| BetOnline | 30.5 | −112 | −115 |
| BetRivers | 30.5 | −112 | −120 |
| Bovada | 30.5 | −115 | −115 |
| DraftKings | 30.5 | −111 | −113 |
| FanDuel | 30.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.