Where do Darren Waller's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Darren Waller's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Darren Waller's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Darren Waller's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

TE · Carolina Panthers#88

Darren Waller

Updated Oct 30, 6:10 AM PT

Darren Waller's receiving yards line is 21.5 for Week 8 at Green Bay Packers (Thu, Oct 29); the projection is 19.1. 6 of 7 markets posted.

@ Green Bay Packers · Week 8Final

Line: 21.5; Receiving Yards · pregame line
Nuvela projection: 19.1; this week · pregame
Result: 11; final result

Lines checked: Oct 30, 12:22 PM PT
Markets posted: 6 of 7
Line since open: +1.0, from 20.5
Projections updated: Oct 30, 1:30 PM PT
Stats before: Week 8

Highlights

Line21.5Up 1 since it opened at 20.5 on Monday, after swinging between 19.5 and 21.5. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.

Over

Why he could top 21.5 receiving yards

33A GAMEHe has averaged 33 receiving yards over his last 6 games, against a line of 21.5.
3.5PT UNDERDOGCarolina is a 3.5 point underdog.
2/3ROAD GAMESHe has topped 21.5 in 2 of his 3 road games, and this one is on the road.

Under

Why he could fall short of 21.5

1stFEWESTGreen Bay gives up 32.9 receiving yards a game to tight ends this season, the fewest in the league.
1stFEWESTGreen Bay lets 6% of throws go 20 or more yards this season, the fewest in the league.
3rdFEWESTTight ends see 6 targets a game against Green Bay this season, the 3rd fewest in the league.

Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Carolina is without tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders, so the position’s targets stay with Waller. Across from him, Green Bay is missing one linebacker, the players who usually cover tight ends.

WallerNo injury designation

Around himCarolina Panthers

1 of 22 touch Waller

This week

OutJa'Tavion SandersTELeaves the tight end targets to him

Across from himGreen Bay Packers

2 of 27 touch Waller

This week

OutZaire FranklinOLB · shinCovers tight ends

Off the report this week

ClearedBenjamin St-JusteCB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2227Show

CAR · Carolina Panthers

22 listed

AJ DillonRB · Not specifiedOut
Akayleb EvansCB · triceps, kneeOut
Bobby Brown IIIDT · handOut
Damien LewisG · kneeOut
Haynes KingQB · Not specifiedOut
Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Not specifiedOut
Jaelan PhillipsLB · hamstringOut
Torricelli Simpkins IIIG · ankleOut
Bam Martin-ScottLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hamstring)Cleared
Cam JacksonDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (knee)—
Claudin CherelusLB · Last listed Wk 3: Out (shoulder)—
Devin LloydLB · Last listed Wk 3: Out (calf)—
Jalen CokerWR · Last listed Wk 4: Q (quadricep)—
Lee HunterDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (foot)—
Monroe FreelingOT · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Nick ScottSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Out (rib)—
Patrick Jones IILB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (back)—
Taylor MotonOT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (lung)—
Tershawn WhartonDE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (neck)—
Thomas IncoomLB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (calf)Cleared
Trevor EtienneRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Xavier LegetteWR · Last listed Wk 4: Out (knee)—

GB · Green Bay Packers

27 listed

Jonnu SmithTE · Not specifiedOut
Kaleb JohnsonRB · Not specifiedOut
Sean RhyanC · ankleOut
Travis GloverOT · kneeOut
Zaire FranklinOLB · shinOut
Anthony CampbellDT · ankleQuestionable
Brenton Cox Jr.DE · quadricepQuestionable
Devonte WyattDT · ankleQuestionable
Matthew GoldenWR · shoulder, footQuestionable
Aaron BanksG · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee, toe)Cleared
Benjamin St-JusteCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hamstring)Cleared
Bo MeltonWR · Last listed Wk 7: Q (back)Cleared
Brandon CisseCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hip)—
Chris BrooksRB · Last listed Wk 5: Out (ankle)—
Edgerrin CooperLB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (shoulder, concussion)—
Jacob MonkG · Last listed Wk 6: Q (quadricep)—
Jager BurtonG · Last listed Wk 5: Q (back)—
Javon HargraveNT · Last listed Wk 6: Out (achilles)—
Jayden ReedWR · Last listed Wk 3: Out (neck)—
Jonathan FordDT · Last listed Wk 6: Out (calf)—
Jordon RileyDT · Last listed Wk 7: Q (achilles)Cleared
Lukas Van NessLB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (concussion)—
Savion WilliamsWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Skyy MooreWR · Last listed Wk 6: Out (ankle)—
Ty'Ron HopperLB · Last listed Wk 1: Q (achilles)—
Warren BrinsonDT · Last listed Wk 4: Out (calf, groin)—
Zach Bako-BeweleG · Last listed Wk 3: Out (knee)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Receiving Yards, last 7

against the posted 21.5

CHI

at ATL

at CLE

DET

BYE

at PHI

at GB

Cleared 21.5Under 21.5

Explore line21.5

Consensus line: 21.5; yards
Nuvela projection: 19.1; −2.4 on the line
Above the line: 5 of 6; 83% of the sample
vs closing lines: 4 of 6; each week's own close
Median: 34.5; regular season
Average: 33; +11.5 on the line

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	36	67%2/3	33%1/3
Last 5	36	80%4/5	60%3/5
Season	34.5	83%5/6	67%4/6
Last season	27	56%5/9	56%5/9

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

6 of 6 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 6; of 6
Average: 33; yards
Median: 34.5; yards
Above 21.5: 5 of 6; 83% of the sample
vs the full 6: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Receiving Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	vs CHI	28	16.5	+11.5
Week 2	@ ATL	33	16.5	+16.5
Week 3	@ CLE	51	20.5	+30.5
Week 4	vs DET	36	36.5	−0.5
Week 6	@ PHI	0	26.5	−26.5
Week 7	vs TB	50	22.5	+27.5

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

6 played

Week	Opponent	Snap%	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Long	TD
Wk 7	vs TB	45%	2	1	50	50	1
Wk 6	@ PHI	46%	2	0	0	—	0
Wk 4	vs DET	53%	6	3	36	16	0
Wk 3	@ CLE	51%	8	5	51	14	0
Wk 2	@ ATL	44%	3	3	33	14	2
Wk 1	vs CHI	35%	2	2	28	17	0

Comparable players vs Green Bay

4 of 7

tight ends went under their line vs Green Bay

Waller this weekLine21.5Nuvela projection19.1

Sam LaPortaDET · Week 7Line 49.518Rec ydsUnder 49.5Under−31.5
Jake FergusonDAL · Week 6Line 24.513Rec ydsUnder 24.5Under−11.5
Colston LovelandCHI · Week 5Line 39.519Rec ydsUnder 39.5Under−20.5
Cade OttonTB · Week 4Line 25.537Rec ydsOver 25.5Over+11.5
Kyle PittsATL · Week 3Line 35.55Rec ydsUnder 35.5Under−30.5
Josh OliverMIN · Week 1Line 6.522Rec ydsOver 6.5Over+15.5
T.J. HockensonMIN · Week 1Line 24.536Rec ydsOver 24.5Over+11.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Green Bay Packers defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles receivers

What Green Bay Packers actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on.	6	7.6	3rd of 32
Catch rate allowedReceptions per target.	67%	72%	4th of 32
Receiving yards allowedTo this position.	32.9	54.4	1st of 32
Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position.	5.5	7.1	4th of 32
Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go.	4.5	6.1	4th of 32
Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line.	4.1	4.9	11th of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	6%	11%	1st of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	13	5th of 32
RB	25.5	28th of 32
WR	35.7	24th of 32
TEhis position	9	2nd of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rec yds
Sam LaPorta2026 · Wk 7	18
Cade Otton2026 · Wk 4	37
Theo Johnson2025 · Wk 11	36
Zach Ertz2025 · Wk 2	64
Trey McBride2025 · Wk 7	74

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 47.5; combined
CAR implied total: 22; underdog
GB implied total: 25.5; favored
Projected script: Neutral/Trail; underdog
Pace: 26.6s; seconds / play
Wind: 9 mph; Clear
Conditions: 58°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 65.3; 6-game avg
Dropbacks: 43.1; 66% pass
Red-zone trips: 3.7; 6-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: +4.0; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share46%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %58%

Of the team's dropbacks

Target share10%

Of all his team's targets

RZ target share13%

Inside the opponent's 20

Inside-10 tgt share50%

Of the team's targets inside the 10

aDOT10

Average depth of target, in yards

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: None reported
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 45%
Games missed this season: 0

If Waller sits

If a tight end sits, the next tight end gets the routes; the targets spread to the receivers and the backs.

Next up

Mitchell EvansTE · 52% of the snaps

Where his work goes

No teammate stands out to take his work.

No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

6 posted · 1 not posted

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Receiving Yards	21.5	19.1Nuvela projection	−2.4	4 of 5	20.5	+1.0
Receptions	2.5	2.4Nuvela projection	−0.1	3 of 5	2.5	level
Anytime TD	22%	Market only	—	2 of 5	22%	level
Longest Reception	13.5	14.9Nuvela	+1.4	5 of 5	11.5	+2.0
1st TD	5%	Market only	—	0 of 5	5%	level
Last TD	6%	Market only	—	0 of 5	6%	level
2+ TDs	No line was posted

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

net +1 (range 19.5–21.5)

Mon 5:21 AM20.5opened
Tue 5:14 AM19.5−1.0
Thu 6:18 AM20.5+1.0
Thu 11:44 AM21.5+1.0
Thu 12:14 PM20.5−1.0
Thu 5:13 PM21.5+1.0

Opened 20.5, now 21.5.

Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsmove together · 758 games+0.4
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

Receiving Yards

7 books

Sportsbook	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	20.5	−120	−111
BetOnline	21.5	−116	−111
BetRivers	20.5	−113	−118
Bovada	21.5	−120	−110
DraftKings	21.5	−116	−108
Fanatics	20.5	−120	−110
FanDuel	21.5	−113	−113

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Darren Waller's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Darren Waller's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Darren Waller's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Darren Waller's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.