TE · Washington Commanders#87
John Bates
Updated
John Bates (TE, WAS) props for Week 8 vs Philadelphia Eagles: lines post as books open. Season averages and hit rates on every market we track.
vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 8Questionable
- Line
- —
- Receiving Yards
- Projection
- —
- No line is posted for this market this week.
- Difference
- —
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 3 of 7
- Projections updated
Highlights
No book has posted this line yet.Highlights appear when one does.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Washington is missing three receivers, which frees targets. Across from him, Philadelphia is missing four safeties and one linebacker, the players who usually cover tight ends.
BatesQuestionable · shoulder
Around himWashington Commanders
4 of 27 touch Bates
This week
- QuestionableTreylon BurksWR · footFrees targets
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRJacoby JonesWRFrees targets
- IRJaylin LaneWR · ankleFrees targets
- IRTerry McLaurinWR · kneeFrees targets
Across from himPhiladelphia Eagles
9 of 29 touch Bates
This week
- OutJihaad CampbellLB · hamstringCovers tight ends
- OutJonathan JonesDB · hamstringCovers tight ends
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRAndre' SamSAFCovers tight ends
- IRJakorian BennettDB · kneeCovers tight ends
- IRTucker LargeSAFCovers tight ends
Off the report this week
- ClearedJalyx HuntLB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
- ClearedJonathan GreenardLB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
- ClearedMichael Carter IICB · was Out in Wk 7Back on the field
- ClearedNolan SmithLB · was Out in Wk 7Back on the field
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2729ShowHide
WAS · Washington Commanders
27 listed- Javon KinlawDT · ankle, kneeOut
- Charles OmenihuDE · groin, ankleQuestionable
- Treylon BurksWR · footQuestionable
- Jacoby JonesWR · Not specifiedIR
- Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · groinIR
- Javontae Jean-BaptisteLB · pectoralIR
- Jaylin LaneWR · ankleIR
- Jer'Zhan NewtonDT · pectoralIR
- Laremy TunsilOT · Not specifiedIR
- Leo ChenalLB · Not specifiedIR
- Malik SpencerSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Terry McLaurinWR · kneeIR
- Chig OkonkwoTE · Last listed Wk 3: Out (hamstring)—
- Deatrich WiseDE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (quadricep)—
- Frankie LuvuLB · Last listed Wk 3: Out (groin)—
- Jayden DanielsQB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (elbow)—
- Jeremy McNicholsRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (quadricep)—
- Jordan MageeLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
- Lucas PatrickC · Last listed Wk 6: Q (illness)—
- Marcus MariotaQB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (knee)—
- Nick CrossSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (illness)—
- Percy ButlerSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
- Rachaad WhiteRB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (shoulder)—
- Sam CosmiOT · Last listed Wk 4: Out (concussion, throat)—
- Stefon DiggsWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
- Trey AmosCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
- Tyler OwensDB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
PHI · Philadelphia Eagles
29 listed- Britain CoveyWR · kneeOut
- DeVonta SmithWR · hamstringOut
- Dontayvion WicksWR · ankleOut
- Jihaad CampbellLB · hamstringOut
- Jonathan JonesDB · hamstringOut
- Andre' SamSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Dameon PierceRB · undisclosedIR
- Jakorian BennettDB · kneeIR
- Jalen HurtsQB · Not specifiedIR
- Johnny WilsonWR · Not specifiedIR
- Tank BigsbyRB · Not specifiedIR
- Tucker LargeSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Will ShipleyRB · Not specifiedIR
- A.J. EpenesaLB · Last listed Wk 6: Doubtful (back)—
- Andrew MukubaSAF · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee)—
- Dallas GoedertTE · Last listed Wk 4: Out (knee)—
- Drew KendallC · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
- Eli StowersTE · Last listed Wk 7: Q (quadricep)Cleared
- Fred JohnsonOT · Last listed Wk 4: Out (knee)—
- Grant CalcaterraTE · Last listed Wk 7: Q (back)Cleared
- Jalyx HuntLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee, ankle)Cleared
- Jonathan GreenardLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Landon DickersonG · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee, pectoral)Cleared
- Marcus EppsSAF · Last listed Wk 5: Out (groin)—
- Marquise BrownWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (ankle)—
- Michael Carter IICB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (abdomen)Cleared
- Nolan SmithLB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (concussion)Cleared
- Saquon BarkleyRB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hamstring)Cleared
- Zack BaunLB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (concussion)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 4
- Consensus line
- —
- yards
- Projection
- —
- Above the line
- —
- vs closing lines
- —
- no closing lines
- Median
- 6.5
- regular season
- Average
- 6.8
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | — | —— | —— |
| Last 5 | — | —— | —— |
| Season | — | —— | —— |
| Last season | 5 | —— | 60%3/5 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 4
- of 6
- Average
- 6.8
- yards
- Median
- 6.5
- yards
- Above the line
- —
- vs the full 6
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ PHI | 13 | — | — |
| Week 2 | @ DAL | — | 13.5 | — |
| Week 3 | vs SEA | 9 | — | — |
| Week 4 | vs IND | — | — | — |
| Week 5 | vs NYG | 1 | — | — |
| Week 6 | @ SF | 4 | — | — |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Snap% | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | @ SF | 37% | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Wk 5 | vs NYG | 45% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 4 | vs IND | 42% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wk 3 | vs SEA | 54% | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | @ DAL | 31% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wk 1 | @ PHI | 49% | 3 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 0 |
Comparable players vs Philadelphia
Other tight ends who faced Philadelphia this season, and how they did against their line.
tight ends went under their line vs Philadelphia
- Brevyn Spann-FordDAL · Week 7Line 13.511Rec ydsUnder 13.5Under−2.5
- Jake FergusonDAL · Week 7Line 18.50Rec ydsUnder 18.5Under−18.5
- Tommy TrembleCAR · Week 6Line 12.546Rec ydsOver 12.5Over+33.5
- Brenton StrangeJAX · Week 5Line 33.568Rec ydsOver 33.5Over+34.5
- Tyler HigbeeLA · Week 4Line 32.567Rec ydsOver 32.5Over+34.5
- Cole KmetCHI · Week 3Line 8.50Rec ydsUnder 8.5Under−8.5
- Colston LovelandCHI · Week 3Line 32.531Rec ydsUnder 32.5Under−1.5
- Gunnar HelmTEN · Week 2Line 22.513Rec ydsUnder 22.5Under−9.5
- Chig OkonkwoWAS · Week 1Line 27.516Rec ydsUnder 27.5Under−11.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Philadelphia Eagles defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Philadelphia Eagles actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4th of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 72% | 72% | 17th of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 43 | 54.5 | 9th of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 7 | 7.1 | 15th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 7 | 6.1 | 25th of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 3.8 | 4.9 | 7th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 11% | 11% | 16th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 19.5 | 24th of 32 |
| RB | 21.2 | 16th of 32 |
| WR | 40.1 | 31st of 32 |
| TEhis position | 10.5 | 7th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Theo Johnson2025 · Wk 8 | 20 |
| Cade Otton2025 · Wk 4 | 9 |
| Brock Bowers2025 · Wk 15 | 28 |
| Gunnar Helm2026 · Wk 2 | 13 |
| T.J. Hockenson2025 · Wk 7 | 43 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 40.5
- combined
- WAS implied total
- 23.25
- favored
- PHI implied total
- 17.25
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 29.9s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 4 mph
- Clouds
- Conditions
- 54°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 62.8
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 40.2
- 64% pass
- His receptions
- 1.2
- projected this game
- Red-zone trips
- 3
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −1.7
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- Shoulder
- Game status
- Questionable
- Snap share, last game
- 37%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Bates sits
If a tight end sits, the next tight end gets the routes; the targets spread to the receivers and the backs.
Next up
Ben SinnottTE · 32% of the snaps
Where his work goes
- Terry McLaurinWR+4.5targets
- Rachaad WhiteRB+3.8targets
- Dyami BrownWR+3.5targets
- Antonio WilliamsWR+1.8targets
Based on 2 games without him
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 6% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 incl. 2025 | 7% | level |
| 1st TD | 2% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 2% | level |
| Last TD | 2% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 2% | level |
| Receiving Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receptions | No line posted yet | |||||
| Longest Reception | No line posted yet | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.
Moves with this
How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 758 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
About these numbers
Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.
- Where do John Bates's prop lines come from?
- From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of John Bates's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
- How is John Bates's projection made?
- The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from John Bates's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.
