NFC East · 1–2
Washington Commanders
vs Indianapolis Colts · Sun, Oct 4 · 6:30 AM PTUnderdog by 4.5
- Line
- 20.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 25.3
- our projection
- Difference
- +4.8
- +23.4% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- −1, from 21.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L3 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 | +5.8 | +1.3 | 2 of 3 | +4.5 | 0 |
| Team Total | 20.5 | 25.3 | +4.8 | 2 of 3 | 21.5 | −1 |
| Game Total | 46.5 | 56.4 | +9.9 | 2 of 3 | 46.5 | 0 |
| Moneyline | 36% | 34% | −3 | 1 of 3 | 41% | −4.3 |
How the line moved
- Sep 28, 6:33 PM PT21.5opened
- Oct 3, 11:31 AM PT20.5−1
Opened 21.5, now 20.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Spread0.72strong
- Game Total0.61strong
- Moneyline0.58moderate
- IND team total-0.13weak
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (20 games) — a club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same bet.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 3
Cleared 20.5Under 20.5Our projection this week
- The line
- 20.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 25.3
- +4.8 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 22
- regular season
- Season average
- 25
- 3 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 22 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 23 | 80%4/5 | 80%4/5 |
| Last 10 | 22.5 | 60%6/10 | 60%6/10 |
| Season | 22 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last Season | 22 | 65%11/17 | 47%8/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 25
- points
- Median team total
- 22
- points
- Cleared
- 2 of 3
- 67% · directional
- vs the full 3
- 0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ PHI | 22 | 18.8 | +3.3 |
| Week 2 | @ DAL | 20 | 24 | −4 |
| Week 3 | vs SEA | 33 | 16 | +17 |
What this line assumes
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Washington Commanders are 1-2 on the season and have hit the team total in 2 of 3 graded games (67%), measured against each game's own closing line.
The current team total number of 20.5 assumes a game environment in line with the posted total and spread.
A trailing game script would shift Washington Commanders's pace and play-calling and move the team total outcome.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Market read
- Current line
- 20.5
- Season average
- 25
- vs the line
- +4.5
- Market rank
- 13thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- IND allow 30.3
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 46.5
- combined
- WAS spread
- +4.5
- underdog
- WAS implied total
- 21
- their half
- IND implied total
- 25.5
- the other half
- Projected script
- Trailing
- underdog at home
- Wind
- —
- not posted yet
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 66
- WAS, from pace
- Drives
- 11.3
- 12th in the league
- Points per drive
- 2.21
- needs 1.8 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 3.7
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 28.9
- 27th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
The rates the projection is built on, each against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Indianapolis Colts allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture — which sets how many points there are to score.
Indianapolis Colts defence
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 30.3 | 29th |
| Points per drive allowed | 2.68 | 27th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 71% | 23rd |
| Drives faced / game | 11.3 | 24th |
| Seconds per play | 31.1 | 10th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 29
- Allowed on the road
- 33
- This game
- On the road
- Difference
- +4 a game
Indianapolis Colts travel to WAS, so the road figure is the one that applies — 4 points a game softer than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | vs SEA | 33 | 31 | +2 | 64 | 16 |
| Week 2 | @ DAL | 20 | 37 | −17 | 57 | 24 |
| Week 1 | @ PHI | 22 | 24 | −2 | 46 | 18.75 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 20.5 — over/under odds across the market. 2 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 20.5 | −118 | −102 |
| BetOnline | 21.5 | −110 | −120 |
| FanDuel | 20.5 | −120 | −106 |
| Caesars | 21.5 | +109 | −145 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 3, 11:29 AM PT. 2 of 4 books below are on a different number than 20.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Opening line posted Sep 28, 6:33 PM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.