QB · Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert
@ Seattle Seahawks · Week 4
- Line
- 195.5
- Passing Yards
- Nuvela
- 205
- our projection
- Difference
- +9.5
- +5%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 6 of 13
- Projections updated
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 195.5 | 205 | +9.5 | 4 of 5 | 197 | −1.5 |
| Passing TDs | 0.5 | 1.1 | +0.6 | 5 of 5 | 0.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 17% | 9% | −8% | 1 of 5 | 17% | level |
| 1st TD | 4% | 0% | −4% | 0 of 5 | 4% | 0% |
| Last TD | 4% | 3% | −1% | 0 of 5 | 4% | 0% |
| 2+ TDs | 1% | 0% | −1% | 0 of 5 | — | — |
| Interceptions | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rushing Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Pass Attempts | No line posted yet | |||||
| Completions | No line posted yet | |||||
| Pass + Rush Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush Attempts | No line posted yet | |||||
| Longest Completion | No line posted yet | |||||
How the line moved
- Tue 8:03 PM195.5Herbert completed 20 of 34 passes for 226 yards with one touchdown and one interception and rushed four times for 17 yards in the Chargers' 24-16 loss to the Bills on Sunday.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate — read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the QB's passing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The WR1's receiving yardsmove together · 640 games+0.6
- The WR2's receiving yardsmove together · 640 games+0.5
- The TE1's receiving yardsmove together · 638 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 640 games−0.1
A role-level tendency across the league — a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Passing Yards, last 3
- Consensus line
- 195.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 205
- +9.5 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 209
- regular season
- Average
- 209
- +13.5 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 209 | 67%2/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 226 | 80%4/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Season | 209 | 67%2/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last season | 231.5 | 75%12/16 | 50%8/16 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 209
- yards
- Median
- 209
- yards
- Above 195.5
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs the full 3
- 0
- yards
Sample under 8 games — treat as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Passing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs ARI | 209 | 232.5 | −23.5 |
| Week 2 | vs LV | 192 | 223.5 | −31.5 |
| Week 3 | @ BUF | 226 | 225.5 | +0.5 |
Availability
Practice participation through the week, and the teammates whose status changes his workload.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- Active
- Snap share, last game
- 100%
- Games missed this season
- 0
Workload dependencies
- Dalevon CampbellWR · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Ir
- David NjokuTE · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Ir
- KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Ir
- Charlie KolarTE · arm · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Doubtful
- Brenen ThompsonWR · leg · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Questionable
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
LAC · Los Angeles Chargers
SEA · Seattle Seahawks
What this report suggests
- Names listed
- 16
- 9 LAC · 7 SEA
- Ruled out
- 9
- won’t play
- Questionable
- 7
- decided at kickoff
- Touch his workload
- 5
- Dalevon Campbell, David Njoku +3
- His coverage
- —
- not tracked yet
5 names on these lists reach him directly. Dalevon Campbell, David Njoku +3 — flagged in Availability — are the teammates whose status changes his own workload. The rest reach him through the game, not his role.
Across both clubs, 9 ruled out and 7 questionable. A thinner defence argues for more possessions — volume, which is most of a yards prop — though it cuts both ways, since trailing throws more and leading throws less.
Counted from the two lists above rather than typed, so this can’t disagree with them. It reads the report; it does not predict who plays.
Key research points
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
The market lists Justin Herbert at 195.5 passing yards. He has cleared this line in 2 of 3 games. Our projection, built from his own games and never from the line, is 205.0. SEA ranks 1st of 32 in passing yards allowed and 1st in yards per attempt allowed. Research, not a pick — the call is yours.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Research context for this week
The factors actually in play this week, and which one swings it.
3 factors in play
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it.
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 43
- combined
- LAC implied total
- 18
- underdog
- SEA implied total
- 25
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 30.9s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- —
- no forecast yet
- Conditions
- Outdoor
- outdoor
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 59
- 3-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 35
- 59% pass
- His pass attempts
- 29.3
- projected this game
- Red-zone trips
- 3
- 3-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −8.1
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on — the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Seattle Seahawks defends each position — fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest — and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the pass
What Seattle Seahawks actually allows to QBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts facedHow much passing volume this defence sees — the base under every passing prop. | 30.7 | 32.4 | 12th of 32 |
| Passing yards allowedPer game, to quarterbacks. | 152 | 231.2 | 1st of 32 |
| Yards per attempt allowedEfficiency conceded, independent of how often the defence is thrown on. | 5 | 7.2 | 1st of 32 |
| Completion % allowedCompletions per attempt. | 64% | 65% | 14th of 32 |
| Sack rateSacks per dropback. Sacks remove attempts outright, so they cap a passing line. | 7% | 6% | 12th of 32 |
| Pressure rateHow often this defence pressured the quarterbacks it faced — the mechanism behind suppressed passing yards. | 22% | 23% | 15th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 9% | 11% | 10th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QBhis position | 12.2 | 5th of 32 |
| RB | 16.2 | 5th of 32 |
| WR | 23.8 | 4th of 32 |
| TE | 11.3 | 12th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Pass yds |
|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett2026 · Wk 2 | 95 |
| Max Brosmer2025 · Wk 13 | 126 |
| Kirk Cousins2025 · Wk 14 | 162 |
| Trevor Lawrence2025 · Wk 6 | 258 |
| Marcus Mariota2026 · Wk 3 | 183 |
Game log · season
Most recent first — his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Att | Comp | Pass yds | Long | TD | INT | Rush yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | @ BUF | 34 | 20 | 226 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
| Wk 2 | vs LV | 27 | 15 | 192 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Wk 1 | vs ARI | 27 | 17 | 209 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 29 |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Passing Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics | 195.5 | −115 | −115 |
| FanDuel | 198.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.