QB · New York Jets
Geno Smith
Updated
Geno Smith's passing yards line is 220.5 for Week 7 vs Miami Dolphins (Sun, Oct 25); the projection is 240.0. 11 of 12 markets posted.
vs Miami Dolphins · Week 7
- Line
- 220.5
- Passing Yards
- Tank01 projection
- 240.0
- this week
- Difference
- +19.5
- +9%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 11 of 12
- Line since open
- −1.0, from 221.5
- Projections updated
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 220.5 | 240.0Tank01 projection | +19.5 | 3 of 5 | 221.5 | −1.0 |
| Passing TDs | 1.5 | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 1.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 11% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 11% | level |
| Interceptions | 0.5 | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 0.5 | level |
| Rushing Yards | 6.5 | 4.2Nuvela projection | −2.3 | 3 of 5 | 6.5 | level |
| Pass Attempts | 29.5 | 30.7Tank01 projection | +1.2 | 4 of 5 | 29.5 | level |
| Completions | 20.5 | 21.8Tank01 projection | +1.3 | 2 of 5 | 20.5 | level |
| Pass + Rush Yards | 231.5 | 251.0Tank01 projection | +19.5 | 3 of 5 | 232.5 | −1.0 |
| Longest Completion | 33.5 | 44.6Nuvela | +11.1 | 4 of 5 | 33.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 4% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 3% | level |
| Last TD | 3% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 3% | level |
| Rush Attempts | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Wed 8:07 PM221.5opened
- Thu 9:59 AM223.5+2.0
- Fri 10:04 PM220.5−3.0
Opened 221.5, now 220.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the QB's passing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The WR1's receiving yardsmove together · 732 games+0.6
- The WR2's receiving yardsmove together · 732 games+0.5
- The TE1's receiving yardsmove together · 730 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 732 games−0.1
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Passing Yards, last 6
- Consensus line
- 220.5
- yards
- Tank01 projection
- 240.0
- +19.5 on the line
- Above the line
- 3 of 6
- 50% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 4 of 6
- each week's own close
- Median
- 231
- regular season
- Average
- 222.7
- +2.2 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 182 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 247 | 60%3/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Season | 231 | 50%3/6 | 67%4/6 |
| Last season | 180 | 40%6/15 | 40%6/15 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 6
- of 6
- Average
- 222.7
- yards
- Median
- 231
- yards
- Above 220.5
- 3 of 6
- 50% of the sample
- vs the full 6
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Passing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ TEN | 215 | 212.5 | +2.5 |
| Week 2 | vs GB | 247 | 207.5 | +39.5 |
| Week 3 | @ DET | 321 | 227.5 | +93.5 |
| Week 4 | @ CHI | 119 | 224.5 | −105.5 |
| Week 5 | vs CLE | 182 | 198.5 | −16.5 |
| Week 6 | @ NE | 252 | 210.5 | +41.5 |
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 100%
- Games missed this season
- 0
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
NYJ · New York Jets
MIA · Miami Dolphins
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 39.5
- combined
- NYJ implied total
- 22
- favored
- MIA implied total
- 17.5
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 31.6s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 1 mph
- Clear
- Conditions
- 67°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 58.2
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 34
- 59% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 2.3
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −3.8
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Miami Dolphins defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the pass
What Miami Dolphins actually allows to QBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts facedHow much passing volume this defence sees: the base under every passing prop. | 29 | 33.7 | 4th of 32 |
| Passing yards allowedPer game, to quarterbacks. | 226 | 236.1 | 12th of 32 |
| Yards per attempt allowedEfficiency conceded, independent of how often the defence is thrown on. | 7.8 | 7 | 27th of 32 |
| Completion % allowedCompletions per attempt. | 77% | 64% | 32nd of 32 |
| Sack rateSacks per dropback. Sacks remove attempts outright, so they cap a passing line. | 3% | 6% | 32nd of 32 |
| Pressure rateHow often this defence pressured the quarterbacks it faced: the mechanism behind suppressed passing yards. | 18% | 23% | 27th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 9% | 11% | 9th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QBhis position | 18.8 | 23rd of 32 |
| RB | 26.1 | 29th of 32 |
| WR | 23.2 | 2nd of 32 |
| TE | 19.8 | 29th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Pass yds |
|---|---|
| Joe Burrow2026 · Wk 5 | 190 |
| Kirk Cousins2026 · Wk 1 | 160 |
| Justin Fields2025 · Wk 4 | 226 |
| Justin Herbert2025 · Wk 6 | 264 |
| Lamar Jackson2025 · Wk 9 | 204 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Att | Comp | Pass yds | Long | TD | INT | Rush yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | @ NE | 30 | 20 | 252 | 48 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
| Wk 5 | vs CLE | 30 | 17 | 182 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Wk 4 | @ CHI | 15 | 8 | 119 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 3 | @ DET | 37 | 31 | 321 | 43 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| Wk 2 | vs GB | 41 | 27 | 247 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 17 |
| Wk 1 | @ TEN | 24 | 19 | 215 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Passing Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 221.5 | −115 | −115 |
| BetOnline | 223.5 | −114 | −114 |
| BetRivers | 215.5 | −110 | −132 |
| Bovada | 218.5 | −115 | −115 |
| DraftKings | 218.5 | −113 | −111 |
| Fanatics | 220.5 | −110 | −120 |
| FanDuel | 223.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.