TE · Cincinnati Bengals
Mike Gesicki
vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4
- Line
- 28.5
- Receiving Yards
- Nuvela
- 27.9
- our projection
- Difference
- −0.6
- −2%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 6 of 7
- Line since open
- +1, from 27.5
- Projections updated
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 28.5 | 32.3 | +3.8 | 4 of 5 | 28.5 | level |
| Receptions | 2.5 | 2.8 | +0.3 | 3 of 5 | 2.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 27% | 19% | −9% | 3 of 5 | 27% | +1% |
| 1st TD | 6% | 0% | −6% | 0 of 5 | 5% | +1% |
| Last TD | 6% | 16% | +10% | 1 of 5 | 7% | −1% |
| 2+ TDs | 4% | 0% | −4% | 0 of 5 | — | — |
| Longest Reception | No line posted yet | |||||
How the line moved
- Wed 8:01 PM27.5opened
- Wed 10:04 PM28.5+1
Opened 27.5, now 28.5. The move is against our read, which is the thing worth checking before the gap is a reason.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate — read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 638 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 638 games−0.1
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 638 games0
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 638 games0
A role-level tendency across the league — a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 2
- Consensus line
- 28.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 27.9
- −0.6 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 2
- 100% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 2
- each week's own close
- Median
- 57.5
- regular season
- Average
- 57.5
- +29 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 57.5 | 100%2/2 | 100%2/2 |
| Last 5 | 37 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Season | 57.5 | 100%2/2 | 100%2/2 |
| Last season | 16.5 | 33%4/12 | 42%5/12 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 2
- of 3
- Average
- 57.5
- yards
- Median
- 57.5
- yards
- Above 28.5
- 2 of 2
- 100% of the sample
- vs the full 3
- 0
- yards
Sample under 8 games — treat as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs TB | 78 | 20.5 | +57.5 |
| Week 3 | @ PIT | 37 | 24.5 | +12.5 |
| — | — | — | 22.5 | — |
Availability
Practice participation through the week, and the teammates whose status changes his workload.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- Active
- Snap share, last game
- 51%
- Games missed this season
- 0
Workload dependencies
- Drew Sample58% snap share · Shares his room — every snap here is one out of his own targets.
- Erick All42% snap share · Shares his room — every snap here is one out of his own targets.
- Tanner Hudson16% snap share · Shares his room — every snap here is one out of his own targets.
- Andrei IosivasWR · arm · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Ir
- Colbie YoungWR · leg · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Out
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
CIN · Cincinnati Bengals
JAX · Jacksonville Jaguars
What this report suggests
- Names listed
- 13
- 7 CIN · 6 JAX
- Ruled out
- 3
- won’t play
- Questionable
- 10
- decided at kickoff
- Touch his workload
- 2
- Andrei Iosivas, Colbie Young
- His coverage
- —
- not tracked yet
2 names on these lists reach him directly. Andrei Iosivas, Colbie Young — flagged in Availability — are the teammates whose status changes his own workload. The rest reach him through the game, not his role.
Across both clubs, 3 ruled out and 10 questionable. A thinner defence argues for more possessions — volume, which is most of a yards prop — though it cuts both ways, since trailing throws more and leading throws less.
Counted from the two lists above rather than typed, so this can’t disagree with them. It reads the report; it does not predict who plays.
Key research points
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
The market lists Mike Gesicki at 28.5 receiving yards. He has cleared this line in 2 of 2 games. Our projection, built from his own games and never from the line, is 27.92. JAX ranks 1st of 32 in targets allowed and 5th in receiving yards allowed. Research, not a pick — the call is yours.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Research context for this week
The factors actually in play this week, and which one swings it.
3 factors in play
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it.
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 51.5
- combined
- CIN implied total
- 27
- favored
- JAX implied total
- 24.5
- underdog
- Projected script
- Close
- tight spread
- Pace
- 31s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- —
- no forecast yet
- Conditions
- Outdoor
- outdoor
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 58.7
- 3-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 37.7
- 64% pass
- His receptions
- 2.3
- projected this game
- Red-zone trips
- 2.7
- 3-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +4.4
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on — the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Jacksonville Jaguars defends each position — fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest — and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Jacksonville Jaguars actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game — the volume a receptions line rests on. | 3.3 | 7.2 | 1st of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 80% | 73% | 25th of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 29.7 | 52.4 | 5th of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 8.9 | 7.3 | 26th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target — how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 7.2 | 5.8 | 26th of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception — tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 4.4 | 5.2 | 10th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 15% | 11% | 27th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 11.1 | 3rd of 32 |
| RB | 16.8 | 7th of 32 |
| WR | 30.8 | 15th of 32 |
| TEhis position | 7.8 | 6th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden II2025 · Wk 11 | 41 |
| Trey McBride2025 · Wk 12 | 79 |
| Tyler Warren2025 · Wk 17 | 43 |
| Michael Mayer2025 · Wk 9 | 26 |
| Harold Fannin Jr.2026 · Wk 1 | 21 |
Game log · season
Most recent first — his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Snap% | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | @ PIT | 51% | 3 | 3 | 37 | 25 | 1 |
| Wk 1 | vs TB | 33% | 7 | 5 | 78 | 25 | 1 |
| — | — | 35% | — | — | — | — | — |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | 28.5 | −112 | −118 |
| DraftKings | 28.5 | −115 | −109 |
| FanDuel | 28.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.