TE · Carolina Panthers#84
Mitchell Evans
Updated
Mitchell Evans' receiving yards line is 5.5 for Week 8 at Green Bay Packers (Thu, Oct 29); the projection is 8.7. 5 of 7 markets posted.
@ Green Bay Packers · Week 8Final
- Line
- 5.5
- Receiving Yards · pregame line
- Nuvela projection
- 8.7
- this week · pregame
- Result
- 22
- final result
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 5 of 7
- Line since open
- −1.0, from 6.5
- Projections updated
- Stats before
- Week 8
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 5.5 receiving yards
Line5.5Down 1 since it opened at 6.5 on Thursday. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.
Over
Why he could top 5.5 receiving yards
- 17.5A GAMEHe has averaged about 18 receiving yards over his last 6 games, against a line of 5.5.
- 3.5PT UNDERDOGCarolina is a 3.5 point underdog.
- 2/3ROAD GAMESHe has topped 5.5 in 2 of his 3 road games, and this one is on the road.
Under
Why he could fall short of 5.5
- 1stFEWESTGreen Bay gives up 32.9 receiving yards a game to tight ends this season, the fewest in the league.
- 1.7TARGETS A GAMEHe gets 1.7 targets a game, 5% of Carolina's total, over 6 games.
- 32%ROUTESHe runs a route on about 32% of dropbacks over 6 games.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Carolina is without tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders, so the position’s targets stay with Evans. Across from him, Green Bay is missing one linebacker, the players who usually cover tight ends.
EvansNo injury designation
Around himCarolina Panthers
1 of 22 touch Evans
This week
- OutJa'Tavion SandersTELeaves the tight end targets to him
Across from himGreen Bay Packers
2 of 27 touch Evans
This week
- OutZaire FranklinOLB · shinCovers tight ends
Off the report this week
- ClearedBenjamin St-JusteCB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2227ShowHide
CAR · Carolina Panthers
22 listed- AJ DillonRB · Not specifiedOut
- Akayleb EvansCB · triceps, kneeOut
- Bobby Brown IIIDT · handOut
- Damien LewisG · kneeOut
- Haynes KingQB · Not specifiedOut
- Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Not specifiedOut
- Jaelan PhillipsLB · hamstringOut
- Torricelli Simpkins IIIG · ankleOut
- Bam Martin-ScottLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hamstring)Cleared
- Cam JacksonDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (knee)—
- Claudin CherelusLB · Last listed Wk 3: Out (shoulder)—
- Devin LloydLB · Last listed Wk 3: Out (calf)—
- Jalen CokerWR · Last listed Wk 4: Q (quadricep)—
- Lee HunterDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (foot)—
- Monroe FreelingOT · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
- Nick ScottSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Out (rib)—
- Patrick Jones IILB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (back)—
- Taylor MotonOT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (lung)—
- Tershawn WhartonDE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (neck)—
- Thomas IncoomLB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (calf)Cleared
- Trevor EtienneRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
- Xavier LegetteWR · Last listed Wk 4: Out (knee)—
GB · Green Bay Packers
27 listed- Jonnu SmithTE · Not specifiedOut
- Kaleb JohnsonRB · Not specifiedOut
- Sean RhyanC · ankleOut
- Travis GloverOT · kneeOut
- Zaire FranklinOLB · shinOut
- Anthony CampbellDT · ankleQuestionable
- Brenton Cox Jr.DE · quadricepQuestionable
- Devonte WyattDT · ankleQuestionable
- Matthew GoldenWR · shoulder, footQuestionable
- Aaron BanksG · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee, toe)Cleared
- Benjamin St-JusteCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hamstring)Cleared
- Bo MeltonWR · Last listed Wk 7: Q (back)Cleared
- Brandon CisseCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hip)—
- Chris BrooksRB · Last listed Wk 5: Out (ankle)—
- Edgerrin CooperLB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (shoulder, concussion)—
- Jacob MonkG · Last listed Wk 6: Q (quadricep)—
- Jager BurtonG · Last listed Wk 5: Q (back)—
- Javon HargraveNT · Last listed Wk 6: Out (achilles)—
- Jayden ReedWR · Last listed Wk 3: Out (neck)—
- Jonathan FordDT · Last listed Wk 6: Out (calf)—
- Jordon RileyDT · Last listed Wk 7: Q (achilles)Cleared
- Lukas Van NessLB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (concussion)—
- Savion WilliamsWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
- Skyy MooreWR · Last listed Wk 6: Out (ankle)—
- Ty'Ron HopperLB · Last listed Wk 1: Q (achilles)—
- Warren BrinsonDT · Last listed Wk 4: Out (calf, groin)—
- Zach Bako-BeweleG · Last listed Wk 3: Out (knee)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 7
- Consensus line
- 5.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 8.7
- +3.2 on the line
- Above the line
- 5 of 6
- 83% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 2
- each week's own close
- Median
- 11
- regular season
- Average
- 17.5
- +12.0 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 8 | 67%2/3 | 100%1/1 |
| Last 5 | 13 | 80%4/5 | 100%2/2 |
| Season | 11 | 83%5/6 | 100%2/2 |
| Last season | 9 | 57%8/14 | 20%1/5 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 6
- of 6
- Average
- 17.5
- yards
- Median
- 11
- yards
- Above 5.5
- 5 of 6
- 83% of the sample
- vs the full 6
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs CHI | 9 | — | — |
| Week 2 | @ ATL | 13 | — | — |
| Week 3 | @ CLE | 36 | 6.5 | +29.5 |
| Week 4 | vs DET | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 |
| Week 6 | @ PHI | 0 | — | — |
| Week 7 | vs TB | 39 | — | — |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Snap% | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 | vs TB | 50% | 2 | 2 | 39 | 32 | 0 |
| Wk 6 | @ PHI | 54% | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 |
| Wk 4 | vs DET | 61% | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Wk 3 | @ CLE | 27% | 3 | 3 | 36 | 19 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | @ ATL | 58% | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | vs CHI | 40% | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
Comparable players vs Green Bay
Other tight ends who faced Green Bay this season, and how they did against their line.
tight ends went under their line vs Green Bay
- Sam LaPortaDET · Week 7Line 49.518Rec ydsUnder 49.5Under−31.5
- Jake FergusonDAL · Week 6Line 24.513Rec ydsUnder 24.5Under−11.5
- Colston LovelandCHI · Week 5Line 39.519Rec ydsUnder 39.5Under−20.5
- Cade OttonTB · Week 4Line 25.537Rec ydsOver 25.5Over+11.5
- Kyle PittsATL · Week 3Line 35.55Rec ydsUnder 35.5Under−30.5
- Josh OliverMIN · Week 1Line 6.522Rec ydsOver 6.5Over+15.5
- T.J. HockensonMIN · Week 1Line 24.536Rec ydsOver 24.5Over+11.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Green Bay Packers defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Green Bay Packers actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 6 | 7.6 | 3rd of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 67% | 72% | 4th of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 32.9 | 54.4 | 1st of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4th of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 4.1 | 4.9 | 11th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 6% | 11% | 1st of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 13 | 5th of 32 |
| RB | 25.5 | 28th of 32 |
| WR | 35.7 | 24th of 32 |
| TEhis position | 9 | 2nd of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta2026 · Wk 7 | 18 |
| Cade Otton2026 · Wk 4 | 37 |
| Theo Johnson2025 · Wk 11 | 36 |
| Zach Ertz2025 · Wk 2 | 64 |
| Trey McBride2025 · Wk 7 | 74 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 47.5
- combined
- CAR implied total
- 22
- underdog
- GB implied total
- 25.5
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 26.6s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 9 mph
- Clear
- Conditions
- 58°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 65.3
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 43.1
- 66% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 3.7
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +4.0
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 50%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Evans sits
If a tight end sits, the next tight end gets the routes; the targets spread to the receivers and the backs.
Next up
Darren WallerTE · 46% of the snaps
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 5.5 | 8.7Nuvela projection | +3.2 | 4 of 5 | 6.5 | −1.0 |
| Receptions | 0.5 | 1.6Nuvela projection | +1.1 | 4 of 5 | 1.5 | −1.0 |
| Anytime TD | 10% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 12% | −2% |
| 1st TD | 2% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 2% | level |
| Last TD | 3% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 3% | level |
| Longest Reception | No line was posted | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line was posted | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Thu 3:17 AM6.5opened
- Thu 5:13 PM5.5−1.0
Opened 6.5, now 5.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 758 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 | −105 | −125 |
| BetOnline | 5.5 | −119 | −109 |
| BetRivers | 5.5 | −117 | −114 |
| DraftKings | 5.5 | −120 | −104 |
| FanDuel | 5.5 | −113 | −113 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
About these numbers
Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.
- Where do Mitchell Evans's prop lines come from?
- From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Mitchell Evans's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
- How is Mitchell Evans's projection made?
- The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Mitchell Evans's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.
