RB · Cincinnati Bengals#34
Samaje Perine
Updated
Samaje Perine's rushing yards line is 27.5 for Week 7 at Baltimore Ravens (Sun, Oct 25); the projection is 22.5. 9 of 10 markets posted.
@ Baltimore Ravens · Week 7
- Line
- 27.5
- Rushing Yards
- Nuvela projection
- 22.5
- this week
- Difference
- −5.0
- −18%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 9 of 10
- Line since open
- +6.0, from 21.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 27.5 rushing yards
He had 14 carries in Week 5, his most in 5 games this season. The doubts are Brown's lead role and his share of the carries.
Line27.5Up 6 since it opened at 21.5 on Wednesday, after swinging between 21.5 and 28.5. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.
Over
Why he could top 27.5 rushing yards
- 14CARRIES, WK 5He had 14 carries in Week 5, his most in 5 games this season.
- 3PT FAVORITECincinnati is a 3-point favorite, and teams with a lead run the ball more.
Under
Why he could fall short of 27.5
CARRIESChase Brown is still the lead back, with 70% of the snaps and 72% of the carries this season.
- 24%CARRIESHe gets 24% of Cincinnati's carries over 5 games.
- 1/5GAMESHe has gone over 27.5 in only 1 of his 5 games.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Cincinnati is missing one receiver and one tight end, which frees targets. Across from him, Baltimore is missing one linebacker, the players who usually stop the run.
PerineNo injury designation
Around himCincinnati Bengals
3 of 15 touch Perine
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRAndrei IosivasWRFrees targets
- IRBrian Parker IIOTWeakens his run blocking
- IRTanner HudsonTE · pectoralFrees targets
Across from himBaltimore Ravens
4 of 27 touch Perine
This week
- OutJaylinn HawkinsSAF · kneeCovers backs downfield
- QuestionableBroderick WashingtonDT · ankleDefends the run
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRJahquez RobinsonSAFCovers backs downfield
- IRTavius RobinsonLB · pectoralTackles and covers backs
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists1527ShowHide
CIN · Cincinnati Bengals
15 listed- Andrei IosivasWR · Not specifiedIR
- Brian Parker IIOT · Not specifiedIR
- Ja'Sir TaylorCB · Not specifiedIR
- Jalen DavisCB · Not specifiedIR
- Swayze BozemanLB · groinIR
- Tanner HudsonTE · pectoralIR
- B.J. HillDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (achilles)—
- Bryan CookSAF · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ankle)—
- Colbie YoungWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
- Dalton RisnerG · Last listed Wk 4: Q (knee)—
- Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (concussion)—
- Joe BurrowQB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (back)—
- Kyle DuggerSAF · Last listed Wk 5: Out (quadricep)—
- Shemar StewartDE · Last listed Wk 1: Doubtful (knee)—
- Tee HigginsWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (groin, neck)—
BAL · Baltimore Ravens
27 listed- Jaylinn HawkinsSAF · kneeOut
- Lamar JacksonQB · ankleOut
- Broderick WashingtonDT · ankleQuestionable
- Adam RandallRB · Not specifiedIR
- Bilhal KoneCB · Not specifiedIR
- Danny PinterG · Not specifiedIR
- Durham SmytheTE · Not specifiedIR
- Ethan PocicC · Not specifiedIR
- Jahquez RobinsonSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Jovaughn GwynC · Not specifiedIR
- Skylar ThompsonQB · Not specifiedIR
- T.J. TampaCB · kneeIR
- Tavius RobinsonLB · pectoralIR
- Andrew VorheesG · Last listed Wk 6: Q (foot)Cleared
- Cam JurgensG · Last listed Wk 6: Out (concussion)Cleared
- Chris MooreWR · Last listed Wk 4: Q (ankle)—
- Devontez WalkerWR · Last listed Wk 1: Q (groin)—
- Emery Jones Jr.OT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Ja'Kobi LaneWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (wrist)Cleared
- John SimpsonG · Last listed Wk 2: Q (groin)—
- Marlon HumphreyCB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (hamstring, calf)—
- Matthew HibnerTE · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hand)Cleared
- Nnamdi MadubuikeDT · Last listed Wk 2: Out (neck)—
- Ronnie StanleyOT · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
- Teddye BuchananLB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (knee)—
- Trey HendricksonLB · Last listed Wk 5: Out (finger)—
- Zay FlowersWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Rushing Yards, last 5
- Consensus line
- 27.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 22.5
- −5.0 on the line
- Above the line
- 1 of 5
- 20% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 5
- each week's own close
- Median
- 9
- regular season
- Average
- 22
- −5.5 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 9 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 9 | 20%1/5 | 40%2/5 |
| Season | 9 | 20%1/5 | 40%2/5 |
| Last season | 25 | 40%6/15 | 64%7/11 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 5
- of 5
- Average
- 22
- yards
- Median
- 9
- yards
- Above 27.5
- 1 of 5
- 20% of the sample
- vs the full 5
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Rushing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs TB | 20 | 17.5 | +2.5 |
| Week 2 | @ HOU | 6 | 16.5 | −10.5 |
| Week 3 | @ PIT | 9 | 13.5 | −4.5 |
| Week 4 | vs JAX | 7 | 13.5 | −6.5 |
| Week 5 | @ MIA | 68 | 15.5 | +52.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Rush yds | YPC | Long | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 5 | @ MIA | 14 | 68 | 4.9 | 11 | 2 | 1 |
| Wk 4 | vs JAX | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 3 | @ PIT | 3 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | @ HOU | 2 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | vs TB | 5 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
Comparable players vs Baltimore
Other running backs who faced Baltimore this season, and how they did against their line.
running backs went over their line vs Baltimore
- Jaleel McLaughlinCLE · Week 6Line 32.541Rush ydsOver 32.5Over+8.5
- Bijan RobinsonATL · Week 5Line 87.586Rush ydsUnder 87.5Under−1.5
- Tony PollardTEN · Week 4Line 47.548Rush ydsOver 47.5Over+0.5
- Javonte WilliamsDAL · Week 3Line 56.598Rush ydsOver 56.5Over+41.5
- Travis EtienneNO · Week 2Line 40.525Rush ydsUnder 40.5Under−15.5
- Jonathan TaylorIND · Week 1Line 76.598Rush ydsOver 76.5Over+21.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Baltimore Ravens defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What Baltimore Ravens actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 20.8 | 21.9 | 12th of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 79.8 | 89.5 | 11th of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 3.8 | 4.1 | 11th of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 20% | 17% | 4th of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 8% | 11% | 7th of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 23% | 23% | 14th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 14.9 | 9th of 32 |
| RBhis position | 18.5 | 5th of 32 |
| WR | 34.1 | 22nd of 32 |
| TE | 10.5 | 7th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rush yds |
|---|---|
| De'Von Achane2025 · Wk 9 | 67 |
| Jonathan Taylor2026 · Wk 1 | 98 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson2025 · Wk 16 | 51 |
| Bijan Robinson2026 · Wk 5 | 86 |
| Javonte Williams2026 · Wk 3 | 98 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 46
- combined
- CIN implied total
- 24.5
- favored
- BAL implied total
- 21.5
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 30.6s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 1 mph
- Clear
- Conditions
- 65°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 61.6
- 5-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 40.5
- 66% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 3.4
- 5-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +5.4
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 51%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Perine sits
If a back sits, his carries usually split into two jobs rather than going to one player: early downs and the goal line, and passing downs.
Next up
Tahj BrooksRB
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 25% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 25% | level |
| Rushing Yards | 27.5 | 22.5Nuvela projection | −5.0 | 1 of 5 | 21.5 | +6.0 |
| Rush Attempts | 7.5 | 5.4Tank01 projection | −2.1 | 1 of 5 | 6.5 | +1.0 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 39.5 | 29.1Tank01, median-adjusted | −10.4 | 2 of 5 | 33.5 | +6.0 |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 1.1Nuvela projection | −0.4 | 2 of 5 | 1.5 | level |
| Receiving Yards | 7.5 | 8.7Tank01, median-adjusted | +1.2 | 3 of 5 | 7.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 6% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 6% | level |
| Longest Rush | 9.5 | 5.4Nuvela | −4.1 | 1 of 5 | 8.5 | +1.0 |
| Last TD | 7% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 6% | +1% |
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Wed 8:09 PM21.5opened
- Thu 4:00 PM21.50.0
- Fri 3:00 PM27.5+6.0
- Sat 9:59 AM28.5+1.0
- Sat 11:07 PM27.5−1.0
Opened 21.5, now 27.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 732 games−0.1
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 732 games−0.1
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 732 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Rushing Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 28.5 | −110 | −118 |
| BetRivers | 27.5 | −120 | −112 |
| Bovada | 27.5 | −110 | −120 |
| DraftKings | 27.5 | −108 | −116 |
| FanDuel | 26.5 | −113 | −113 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
