Where do Stefon Diggs's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Stefon Diggs's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Stefon Diggs's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Stefon Diggs's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

WR · Washington Commanders#3

Stefon Diggs

Updated Oct 30, 1:59 AM PT

Stefon Diggs' receiving yards line is 42.5 for Week 8 vs Philadelphia Eagles (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 43.9. 6 of 8 markets posted.

vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 8

Line: 42.5; Receiving Yards
Nuvela projection: 43.9; this week
Difference: +1.4; +3%

Lines checked: Oct 30, 12:22 PM PT
Markets posted: 6 of 8
Line since open: level, from 42.5
Projections updated: Oct 30, 12:30 PM PT

Highlights

Line42.5Back at 42.5, where it opened on Wednesday, after swinging between 42.5 and 44.5. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.

Over

Why he could top 42.5 receiving yards

29thOF 32Philadelphia gives up 184 receiving yards a game to receivers this season, the 4th most in the league.
31stOF 32Receivers see 21.9 targets a game against Philadelphia this season, the 2nd most in the league.

Under

Why he could fall short of 42.5

6PT FAVORITEWashington is a 6 point favorite.
40.5TOTALThe game total is 40.5, a low scoring matchup.

Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Washington is without three other receivers, so more of the receiver targets go to Diggs. Across from him, Michael Carter II (CB) is questionable, and nobody else who usually covers receivers is listed.

DiggsNo injury designation

Around himWashington Commanders

5 of 27 touch Diggs

This week

QuestionableJohn BatesTE · shoulderFrees targets
QuestionableTreylon BurksWR · footFrees targets at his spot

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRJacoby JonesWRFrees targets at his spot
IRJaylin LaneWR · ankleFrees targets at his spot
IRTerry McLaurinWR · kneeFrees targets at his spot

Across from himPhiladelphia Eagles

6 of 29 touch Diggs

This week

QuestionableJonathan JonesDB · hamstringDeep coverage
QuestionableMarcus EppsSAF · jawDeep coverage
QuestionableMichael Carter IICB · abdomenCovers receivers

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRAndre' SamSAFDeep coverage
IRJakorian BennettDB · kneeDeep coverage
IRTucker LargeSAFDeep coverage

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2729Show

WAS · Washington Commanders

27 listed

Javon KinlawDT · ankle, kneeOut
Charles OmenihuDE · groin, ankleQuestionable
John BatesTE · shoulderQuestionable
Treylon BurksWR · footQuestionable
Jacoby JonesWR · Not specifiedIR
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · groinIR
Javontae Jean-BaptisteLB · pectoralIR
Jaylin LaneWR · ankleIR
Jer'Zhan NewtonDT · pectoralIR
Laremy TunsilOT · Not specifiedIR
Leo ChenalLB · Not specifiedIR
Malik SpencerSAF · Not specifiedIR
Terry McLaurinWR · kneeIR
Chig OkonkwoTE · Last listed Wk 3: Out (hamstring)—
Deatrich WiseDE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (quadricep)—
Frankie LuvuLB · Last listed Wk 3: Out (groin)—
Jayden DanielsQB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (elbow)—
Jeremy McNicholsRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (quadricep)—
Jordan MageeLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
Lucas PatrickC · Last listed Wk 6: Q (illness)—
Marcus MariotaQB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (knee)—
Nick CrossSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (illness)—
Percy ButlerSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
Rachaad WhiteRB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (shoulder)—
Sam CosmiOT · Last listed Wk 4: Out (concussion, throat)—
Trey AmosCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Tyler OwensDB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—

PHI · Philadelphia Eagles

29 listed

DeVonta SmithWR · hamstringQuestionable
Dontayvion WicksWR · ankleQuestionable
Jalyx HuntLB · knee, ankleQuestionable
Jihaad CampbellLB · hamstringQuestionable
Jonathan GreenardLB · ankleQuestionable
Jonathan JonesDB · hamstringQuestionable
Marcus EppsSAF · jawQuestionable
Michael Carter IICB · abdomenQuestionable
Moro OjomoDT · neckQuestionable
Nolan SmithLB · concussionQuestionable
Saquon BarkleyRB · hamstringQuestionable
Andre' SamSAF · Not specifiedIR
Dameon PierceRB · undisclosedIR
Jakorian BennettDB · kneeIR
Jalen HurtsQB · Not specifiedIR
Johnny WilsonWR · Not specifiedIR
Tank BigsbyRB · Not specifiedIR
Tucker LargeSAF · Not specifiedIR
Will ShipleyRB · Not specifiedIR
A.J. EpenesaLB · Last listed Wk 6: Doubtful (back)—
Andrew MukubaSAF · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee)—
Dallas GoedertTE · Last listed Wk 4: Out (knee)—
Drew KendallC · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
Eli StowersTE · Last listed Wk 7: Q (quadricep)Cleared
Fred JohnsonOT · Last listed Wk 4: Out (knee)—
Grant CalcaterraTE · Last listed Wk 7: Q (back)Cleared
Landon DickersonG · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee, pectoral)Cleared
Marquise BrownWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (ankle)—
Zack BaunLB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (concussion)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Receiving Yards, last 5

against the posted 42.5

at PHI

at DAL

SEA

IND

—DNP

at SF

43.9vs PHI

Cleared 42.5Under 42.5Nuvela projection this week

Explore line42.5

Consensus line: 42.5; yards
Nuvela projection: 43.9; +1.4 on the line
Above the line: 3 of 5; 60% of the sample
vs closing lines: 1 of 5; each week's own close
Median: 44; regular season
Average: 42.8; +0.3 on the line

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	35	33%1/3	0%0/3
Last 5	44	60%3/5	20%1/5
Season	44	60%3/5	20%1/5
Last season	43	53%9/17	41%7/17

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

5 of 5 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 5; of 5
Average: 42.8; yards
Median: 44; yards
Above 42.5: 3 of 5; 60% of the sample
vs the full 5: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Receiving Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	@ PHI	55	42.5	+12.5
Week 2	@ DAL	47	47.5	−0.5
Week 3	vs SEA	33	34.5	−1.5
Week 4	vs IND	35	56.5	−21.5
Week 6	@ SF	44	52.5	−8.5

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

5 played

Week	Opponent	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Long	aDOT	TD
Wk 6	@ SF	7	6	44	13	5.7	1
Wk 4	vs IND	9	5	35	10	10.8	0
Wk 3	vs SEA	7	4	33	11	5	0
Wk 2	@ DAL	6	5	47	20	13.1	2
Wk 1	@ PHI	9	4	55	17	9.2	1

Comparable players vs Philadelphia

9 of 17

wide receivers went over their line vs Philadelphia

Diggs this weekLine42.5Nuvela projection43.9

CeeDee LambDAL · Week 7Line 80.574Rec ydsUnder 80.5Under−6.5
George PickensDAL · Week 7Line 64.557Rec ydsUnder 64.5Under−7.5
Ryan FlournoyDAL · Week 7Line 35.570Rec ydsOver 35.5Over+34.5
Jalen CokerCAR · Week 6Line 56.597Rec ydsOver 56.5Over+40.5
Tetairoa McMillanCAR · Week 6Line 64.586Rec ydsOver 64.5Over+21.5
Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · Week 5Line 24.50Rec ydsUnder 24.5Under−24.5
Jakobi MeyersJAX · Week 5Line 41.537Rec ydsUnder 41.5Under−4.5
Parker WashingtonJAX · Week 5Line 60.5124Rec ydsOver 60.5Over+63.5
Davante AdamsLA · Week 4Line 59.532Rec ydsUnder 59.5Under−27.5
Puka NacuaLA · Week 4Line 76.5125Rec ydsOver 76.5Over+48.5
Kalif RaymondCHI · Week 3Line 22.590Rec ydsOver 22.5Over+67.5
Luther Burden IIICHI · Week 3Line 34.561Rec ydsOver 34.5Over+26.5
Rome OdunzeCHI · Week 3Line 25.544Rec ydsOver 25.5Over+18.5
Calvin RidleyTEN · Week 2Line 17.535Rec ydsOver 17.5Over+17.5
Carnell TateTEN · Week 2Line 39.527Rec ydsUnder 39.5Under−12.5
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · Week 2Line 37.59Rec ydsUnder 37.5Under−28.5
Terry McLaurinWAS · Week 1Line 52.514Rec ydsUnder 52.5Under−38.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Philadelphia Eagles defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles receivers

What Philadelphia Eagles actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on.	21.9	18.4	31st of 32
Catch rate allowedReceptions per target.	60%	62%	10th of 32
Receiving yards allowedTo this position.	184	148.8	29th of 32
Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position.	8.4	8.1	21st of 32
Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go.	10.7	11.1	15th of 32
Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line.	5.2	4.3	30th of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	11%	11%	16th of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	19.5	24th of 32
RB	21.2	16th of 32
WRhis position	40.1	31st of 32
TE	10.5	7th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rec yds
Justin Jefferson2025 · Wk 7	79
Amon-Ra St. Brown2025 · Wk 11	42
Davante Adams2026 · Wk 4	32
Courtland Sutton2025 · Wk 5	99
Jameson Williams2025 · Wk 11	88

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 40.5; combined
WAS implied total: 23.25; favored
PHI implied total: 17.25; underdog
Projected script: Neutral/Lead; favored
Pace: 29.9s; seconds / play
Wind: 4 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 54°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 62.8; 6-game avg
Dropbacks: 40.2; 64% pass
Red-zone trips: 3; 6-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −1.7; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share60%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %78%

Of the team's dropbacks

Target share23%

Of all his team's targets

Air-yards share18%

Of the team's intended air yards

RZ target share23%

Inside the opponent's 20

Targets / g7.6

Targets per game

Yards / route run1.7

Receiving yards per route run

aDOT8.4

Average depth of target, in yards

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

1 session

Dnp

Injury: Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 61%
Games missed this season: 1

If Diggs sits

If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.

Next up

Dyami BrownWR · 43% of the snaps

Where his work goes

No teammate stands out to take his work.

Only 1 game without him, too few to measure, so this split is our estimate

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

6 posted · 2 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Receiving Yards	42.5	43.9Nuvela projection	+1.4	3 of 5	42.5	level
Receptions	4.5	4.2Nuvela projection	−0.3	3 of 5	4.5	level
Anytime TD	33%	Market only	—	3 of 5	36%	−3%
Longest Reception	17.5	15.3Nuvela	−2.2	1 of 5	17.5	level
1st TD	10%	Market only	—	0 of 5	9%	level
Last TD	9%	Market only	—	0 of 5	9%	level
2+ TDs	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

net 0 (range 42.5–44.5)

Wed 8:01 PM42.5opened
Thu 8:41 AM42.50.0
Fri 12:19 AM44.5+2.0
Fri 12:21 PM42.5−2.0

Opened 42.5, now 42.5.

Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 760 games+0.2
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

Receiving Yards

6 books

Sportsbook	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	45.5	−115	−115
BetOnline	42.5	−115	−112
BetRivers	42.5	−113	−118
Bovada	44.5	−115	−115
DraftKings	44.5	−111	−113
FanDuel	42.5	−114	−114

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Stefon Diggs's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Stefon Diggs's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Stefon Diggs's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Stefon Diggs's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.