WR · New York Jets
Sterling Shepard
Sterling Shepard (WR, NYJ) props for Week 7 vs Miami Dolphins: lines post as books open. Season averages and hit rates on every market we track.
vs Miami Dolphins · Week 7
- Line
- —
- Receiving Yards
- Projection
- —
- No line is posted for this market this week.
- Difference
- —
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 0 of 8
- Projections updated
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receptions | No line posted yet | |||||
| Anytime TD | No line posted yet | |||||
| Longest Reception | No line posted yet | |||||
| 1st TD | No line posted yet | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
| Last TD | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.
Moves with this
How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 732 games+0.6
- The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 732 games+0.2
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 732 games0.0
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 2
- Consensus line
- —
- yards
- Projection
- —
- Above the line
- —
- vs closing lines
- —
- no closing lines
- Median
- 1.5
- regular season
- Average
- 1.5
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 5 | —— | 0%0/1 |
| Last 5 | 5 | —— | 0%0/3 |
| Season | — | —— | —— |
| Last season | 24 | —— | 39%5/13 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 2
- of 2
- Average
- 1.5
- yards
- Median
- 1.5
- yards
- Above the line
- —
- vs the full 2
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | @ DET | 3 | — | — |
| Week 4 | @ CHI | 0 | — | — |
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 53%
- Games missed this season
- 2
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
NYJ · New York Jets
MIA · Miami Dolphins
Research context for this week
The factors actually in play this week, and which one swings it.
1 role change this week
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers. No model wrote it.
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 39.5
- combined
- NYJ implied total
- 22
- favored
- MIA implied total
- 17.5
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 31.6s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 1 mph
- Clear
- Conditions
- 67°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 58.2
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 34
- 59% pass
- His receptions
- 3
- projected this game
- Red-zone trips
- 2.3
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −3.8
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Miami Dolphins defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Miami Dolphins actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 13.4 | 18.6 | 1st of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 73% | 62% | 31st of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 110.4 | 150.3 | 3rd of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 8.2 | 8.1 | 17th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 9.6 | 11.2 | 3rd of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 4.4 | 4.2 | 21st of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 9% | 11% | 9th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 18.8 | 23rd of 32 |
| RB | 26.1 | 29th of 32 |
| WRhis position | 23.2 | 2nd of 32 |
| TE | 19.8 | 29th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson2025 · Wk 4 | 82 |
| John Metchie III2025 · Wk 14 | 34 |
| Jordan Addison2026 · Wk 4 | 52 |
| Jauan Jennings2026 · Wk 4 | 8 |
| Adonai Mitchell2025 · Wk 14 | 24 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | aDOT | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 4 | @ CHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 |
| Wk 3 | @ DET | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | — | 0 |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.