Where do Adonai Mitchell's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Adonai Mitchell's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Adonai Mitchell's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Adonai Mitchell's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

WR · New York Jets#15

Adonai Mitchell

Updated Oct 30, 1:51 PM PT

Adonai Mitchell's receiving yards line is 24.5 for Week 8 vs Las Vegas Raiders (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 29.8. 6 of 8 markets posted.

vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8

Line: 24.5; Receiving Yards
Nuvela projection: 29.8; this week
Difference: +5.3; +22%

Lines checked: Oct 30, 12:22 PM PT
Markets posted: 6 of 8
Line since open: +3.0, from 21.5
Projections updated: Oct 30, 1:30 PM PT

Highlights

Line24.5Up 3 since it opened at 21.5 on Wednesday. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.

Over

Why he could top 24.5 receiving yards

14YDS DOWNFIELDHis average target is 14 yards downfield, and Las Vegas allows a deep throw on 15% of attempts, the 3rd most in the league.
41A GAMEHe has averaged 41 receiving yards over his last 3 games, against a line of 24.5.
26thOF 32Las Vegas gives up 8.9 yards a target to receivers this season, the 7th most in the league.

Under

Why he could fall short of 24.5

+3SINCE WEDThe line opened at 21.5 and has moved up to 24.5.
4thLOWESTLas Vegas lets receivers catch 57% of their targets this season, the 4th lowest in the league.
5/16LAST SEASONLast season he topped 24.5 in 5 of 16 games, and his typical game was about 20 receiving yards.

Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

New York Jets is without receiver Arian Smith, so more of the receiver targets go to Mitchell. Across from him, Las Vegas has nobody out who usually covers receivers.

MitchellNo injury designation

Around himNew York Jets

2 of 30 touch Mitchell

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRArian SmithWRFrees targets at his spot
IRConnor HulsteinTEFrees targets

Across from himLas Vegas Raiders

1 of 23 touch Mitchell

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRChigozie AnusiemDBDeep coverage

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists3023Show

NYJ · New York Jets

30 listed

Joseph OssaiDE · ankleOut
Max MitchellOTOut last week
T'Vondre SweatDT · kneeOut
David BaileyLB · groinDoubtful
Breece HallRB · quadricepQuestionable
Anez CooperG · Not specifiedIR
Arian SmithWR · Not specifiedIR
Braiden McGregorDE · Not specifiedIR
Chip TrayanumRB · Not specifiedIR
Connor HulsteinTE · Not specifiedIR
David OnyemataDT · Not specifiedIR
Dominic RichardsonRB · Not specifiedIR
Francisco MauigoaLB · quadricepIR
Kingsley JonathanDE · Not specifiedIR
Marcelino McCrary-BallLB · Not specifiedIR
Mykal WalkerLB · Not specifiedIR
Tre BrownCB · Not specifiedIR
Tyler BaronDE · Not specifiedPUP
VJ PayneSAF · Not specifiedIR
D'Angelo PondsCB · Last listed Wk 1: Doubtful (calf)—
Dane BeltonSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
Dylan ParhamG · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Kene NwangwuRB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Kenyon SadiqTE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (concussion)—
Kingsley EnagbareLB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
Mason TaylorTE · Last listed Wk 4: Out (thumb)—
Minkah FitzpatrickFS · Last listed Wk 3: Out (groin)—
Omar Cooper Jr.WR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Tim PatrickWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (groin)—
Will McDonald IVDE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (calf)—

LV · Las Vegas Raiders

23 listed

Dont'e Thornton Jr.WROut last week
Patrick JohnsonDE · neckOut
Ian ThomasTE · Not specifiedQuestionable
Brennan JacksonLB · Not specifiedIR
Carter RunyonTE · footIR
Chase RobertsWR · Not specifiedIR
Chigozie AnusiemDB · Not specifiedIR
Chris CollierRB · Not specifiedIR
Jack BechWR · forearmIR
Justin PickettG · Not specifiedIR
Keyron CrawfordDE · Not specifiedIR
Aidan O'ConnellQB · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
Ashton JeantyRB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ankle, foot)—
Brock BowersTE · Last listed Wk 3: Q (knee)—
Darien PorterCB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (foot)—
Jackson Powers-JohnsonC · Last listed Wk 4: Out (groin)—
Jalen NailorWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (concussion)—
Kwity PayeDE · Last listed Wk 3: Q (illness)—
Mike Washington Jr.RB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (foot, back)Cleared
Quay WalkerLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (chest)Cleared
Tonka HemingwayDT · Last listed Wk 6: Out (concussion)—
Trey Zuhn IIIG · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
Treydan StukesSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Out (concussion)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Receiving Yards, last 3

against the posted 24.5

at TEN

—DNP

MIA

29.8vs LV

Cleared 24.5Under 24.5Nuvela projection this week

Explore line24.5

Consensus line: 24.5; yards
Nuvela projection: 29.8; +5.3 on the line
Above the line: 2 of 3; 67% of the sample
vs closing lines: 2 of 3; each week's own close
Median: 60; regular season
Average: 41; +16.5 on the line

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	60	67%2/3	67%2/3
Last 5	22	40%2/5	40%2/5
Season	60	67%2/3	67%2/3
Last season	20.5	31%5/16	46%6/13

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

3 of 3 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 3; of 3
Average: 41; yards
Median: 60; yards
Above 24.5: 2 of 3; 67% of the sample
vs the full 3: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Receiving Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	@ TEN	60	32.5	+27.5
Week 2	vs GB	63	33.5	+29.5
Week 7	vs MIA	0	26.5	−26.5

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

3 played

Week	Opponent	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Long	aDOT
Wk 7	vs MIA	3	0	0	—	—
Wk 2	vs GB	12	6	63	15	14.9
Wk 1	@ TEN	3	3	60	40	—

Comparable players vs Las Vegas

9 of 15

wide receivers went over their line vs Las Vegas

Mitchell this weekLine24.5Nuvela projection29.8

Puka NacuaLA · Week 7Line 87.568Rec ydsUnder 87.5Under−19.5
Keon ColemanBUF · Week 6Line 39.559Rec ydsOver 39.5Over+19.5
Khalil ShakirBUF · Week 6Line 45.534Rec ydsUnder 45.5Under−11.5
Efton Chism IIINE · Week 5Line 26.557Rec ydsOver 26.5Over+30.5
Romeo DoubsNE · Week 5Line 48.516Rec ydsUnder 48.5Under−32.5
Tyquan ThorntonKC · Week 4Line 21.5111Rec ydsOver 21.5Over+89.5
Xavier WorthyKC · Week 4Line 33.570Rec ydsOver 33.5Over+36.5
Bryce LanceNO · Week 3Line 16.50Rec ydsUnder 16.5Under−16.5
Chris OlaveNO · Week 3Line 76.5107Rec ydsOver 76.5Over+30.5
Devaughn VeleNO · Week 3Line 48.539Rec ydsUnder 48.5Under−9.5
Quentin JohnstonLAC · Week 2Line 46.57Rec ydsUnder 46.5Under−39.5
Tre HarrisLAC · Week 2Line 30.553Rec ydsOver 30.5Over+22.5
Caleb DouglasMIA · Week 1Line 27.594Rec ydsOver 27.5Over+66.5
Chris BellMIA · Week 1Line 17.525Rec ydsOver 17.5Over+7.5
Malik WashingtonMIA · Week 1Line 27.553Rec ydsOver 27.5Over+25.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Las Vegas Raiders defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles receivers

What Las Vegas Raiders actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on.	16.9	18.4	8th of 32
Catch rate allowedReceptions per target.	57%	62%	4th of 32
Receiving yards allowedTo this position.	149.9	148.8	18th of 32
Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position.	8.9	8.1	26th of 32
Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go.	14	11.1	32nd of 32
Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line.	5.1	4.3	28th of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	15%	11%	30th of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	20.1	28th of 32
RB	25.4	27th of 32
WRhis position	31.4	17th of 32
TE	19.6	29th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rec yds
Malik Washington2026 · Wk 1	53
Elic Ayomanor2025 · Wk 6	27
Caleb Douglas2026 · Wk 1	94
Darius Slayton2025 · Wk 17	36
Devaughn Vele2026 · Wk 3	39

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 45.5; combined
NYJ implied total: 23.5; favored
LV implied total: 22; underdog
Projected script: Close; tight spread
Pace: 31.5s; seconds / play
Wind: 3 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 60°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 57.4; 7-game avg
Dropbacks: 34; 59% pass
Red-zone trips: 2.6; 7-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −3.3; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share65%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %68%

Of the team's dropbacks

Target share19%

Of all his team's targets

Air-yards share19%

Of the team's intended air yards

RZ target share8%

Inside the opponent's 20

Targets / g6

Targets per game

Yards / route run1.7

Receiving yards per route run

aDOT14

Average depth of target, in yards

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: Last listed Wk 6: Out (finger)
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 44%
Games missed this season: 4

If Mitchell sits

If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.

Next up

Tim PatrickWR · 41% of the snaps

Where his work goes

Jeremy RuckertTE+4targets
Omar Cooper Jr.WR+4targets
Garrett WilsonWR+2.8targets
Kenyon SadiqTE+2.2targets

Based on 4 games without him

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

6 posted · 2 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Receiving Yards	24.5	29.8Nuvela projection	+5.3	2 of 5 incl. 2025	21.5	+3.0
Receptions	1.5	2.4Nuvela projection	+0.9	3 of 5 incl. 2025	1.5	level
Anytime TD	21%	Market only	—	0 of 5 incl. 2025	20%	+1%
Longest Reception	17.5	22.6Nuvela	+5.1	2 of 5 incl. 2025	15.5	+2.0
1st TD	5%	Market only	—	0 of 5 incl. 2025	5%	level
Last TD	6%	Market only	—	0 of 5 incl. 2025	5%	+1%
2+ TDs	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

net +3 (range 21.5–24.5)

Wed 4:46 PM21.5opened
Wed 8:02 PM22.5+1.0
Thu 4:47 AM21.5−1.0
Fri 11:01 AM23.5+2.0
Fri 11:01 AM24.5+1.0

Opened 21.5, now 24.5.

Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 760 games+0.2
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

Receiving Yards

5 books

Sportsbook	Line	Over	Under
BetOnline	24.5	−111	−116
BetRivers	23.5	−112	−120
Bovada	24.5	−110	−120
DraftKings	24.5	−109	−115
FanDuel	24.5	−114	−114

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Adonai Mitchell's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Adonai Mitchell's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Adonai Mitchell's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Adonai Mitchell's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.