Where do Tyquan Thornton's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Tyquan Thornton's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Tyquan Thornton's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Tyquan Thornton's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

WR · Kansas City Chiefs#2

Tyquan Thornton

Tyquan Thornton (WR, KC) props for Week 8 at Denver Broncos: lines post as books open. Season averages and hit rates on every market we track.

@ Denver Broncos · Week 8IR

Line: —; Receiving Yards
Projection: —; No line is posted for this market this week.
Difference: —

Lines checked: Oct 30, 2:28 PM PT
Markets posted: 0 of 8
Projections updated: Oct 30, 3:01 PM PT

Highlights

No book has posted this line yet.Highlights appear when one does.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Kansas City is without two other receivers, so more of the receiver targets go to Thornton. Across from him, Denver has nobody out who usually covers receivers.

ThorntonIR

Around himKansas City Chiefs

5 of 19 touch Thornton

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRJeff CaldwellWRFrees targets at his spot
IRJimmy HolidayWRFrees targets at his spot
IRChris OladokunQBChanges who throws to him

Show 1 more

IRJohn Michael GyllenborgTEFrees targets

Off the report this week

ClearedRashee RiceWR · was Out in Wk 7Back on the field

Across from himDenver Broncos

3 of 19 touch Thornton

This week

OutTalanoa HufangaSAF · ankleDeep coverage
QuestionableBrandon JonesSAF · hamstringDeep coverage

Off the report this week

ClearedPat Surtain IICB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists1919Show

KC · Kansas City Chiefs

19 listed

Jaylon MooreOTOut last week
L'Jarius SneedCB · kneeQuestionable
Mansoor DelaneCB · shoulderQuestionable
R Mason ThomasDE · personalQuestionable
Brashard SmithRB · hamstringIR
C.J. HansonG · Not specifiedIR
Chris OladokunQB · Not specifiedIR
EJ SmithRB · Not specifiedIR
Ethan DownsLB · Not specifiedIR
Jeff CaldwellWR · Not specifiedIR
Jimmy HolidayWR · Not specifiedIR
John Michael GyllenborgTE · Not specifiedIR
Josh SimmonsOT · Not specifiedIR
Matt WaletzkoOT · Not specifiedIR
Omarr Norman-LottDT · knee - aclPUP
Chamarri ConnerDB · Last listed Wk 3: Doubtful (knee)—
Chris JonesDE · Last listed Wk 2: Q (calf)—
Cooper McDonaldLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Rashee RiceWR · Last listed Wk 7: Out (hamstring, knee)Cleared

DEN · Denver Broncos

19 listed

RJ HarveyRB · kneeOut
Talanoa HufangaSAF · ankleOut
Brandon JonesSAF · hamstringQuestionable
Jaylen WaddleWR · chestQuestionable
Zach AllenDE · hamstringQuestionable
Caleb LohnerTE · Not specifiedIR
Frank CrumOT · Not specifiedIR
Jonah EllissLB · ankleIR
Levelle BaileyLB · Not specifiedIR
Matt HenningsenDE · Not specifiedIR
Michael DeiterC · Not specifiedIR
Nick GargiuloG · Not specifiedIR
Pat BryantWR · Not specifiedIR
Tyler BadieRB · thumbIR
Dondrea TillmanLB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (hamstring)—
Jonah ColemanRB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (ankle)Cleared
Marvin Mims Jr.WR · Last listed Wk 3: Q (foot)—
Pat Surtain IICB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (ankle)Cleared
Riley MossCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ribs)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Receiving Yards, last 4

against the posted line

DEN

IND

at MIA

111

at LV

Cleared the lineUnder the line

Consensus line: —; yards
Projection: —
Above the line: —
vs closing lines: 3 of 4; each week's own close
Median: 54; regular season
Average: 54.8

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	86	——	100%3/3
Last 5	47	——	80%4/5
Season	54	——	75%3/4
Last season	47	——	86%6/7

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

4 of 4 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 4; of 4
Average: 54.8; yards
Median: 54; yards
Above the line: —
vs the full 4: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Receiving Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	vs DEN	0	20.5	−20.5
Week 2	vs IND	86	16.5	+69.5
Week 3	@ MIA	22	18.5	+3.5
Week 4	@ LV	111	21.5	+89.5

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

4 played

Week	Opponent	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Long	aDOT	TD
Wk 4	@ LV	8	5	111	55	16.2	2
Wk 3	@ MIA	2	2	22	17	—	0
Wk 2	vs IND	4	4	86	45	—	0
Wk 1	vs DEN	1	0	0	—	—	0

Comparable players vs Denver

9 of 14

wide receivers went over their line vs Denver

Jalen BrooksARI · Week 7Line 15.535Rec ydsOver 15.5Over+19.5
Kendrick BourneARI · Week 7Line 35.59Rec ydsUnder 35.5Under−26.5
Michael WilsonARI · Week 7Line 51.555Rec ydsOver 51.5Over+3.5
Cooper KuppSEA · Week 6Line 22.550Rec ydsOver 22.5Over+27.5
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · Week 6Line 93.5134Rec ydsOver 93.5Over+40.5
Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · Week 4Line 34.526Rec ydsUnder 34.5Under−8.5
Mike EvansSF · Week 4Line 43.576Rec ydsOver 43.5Over+32.5
Davante AdamsLA · Week 3Line 71.5137Rec ydsOver 71.5Over+65.5
Konata MumpfieldLA · Week 3Line 9.593Rec ydsOver 9.5Over+83.5
Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · Week 2Line 34.540Rec ydsOver 34.5Over+5.5
Jakobi MeyersJAX · Week 2Line 37.528Rec ydsUnder 37.5Under−9.5
Parker WashingtonJAX · Week 2Line 59.598Rec ydsOver 59.5Over+38.5
Rashee RiceKC · Week 1Line 51.519Rec ydsUnder 51.5Under−32.5
Xavier WorthyKC · Week 1Line 36.518Rec ydsUnder 36.5Under−18.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Denver Broncos defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles receivers

What Denver Broncos actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on.	19.3	18.4	21st of 32
Catch rate allowedReceptions per target.	54%	62%	2nd of 32
Receiving yards allowedTo this position.	135.9	148.8	11th of 32
Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position.	7	8.1	6th of 32
Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go.	12	11.1	26th of 32
Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line.	3.4	4.3	3rd of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	9%	11%	12th of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	15.2	10th of 32
RB	22.9	22nd of 32
WRhis position	27.4	6th of 32
TE	15.8	24th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rec yds
DeVonta Smith2025 · Wk 5	114
Ja'Marr Chase2025 · Wk 4	23
Lil'Jordan Humphrey2025 · Wk 7	0
Calvin Ridley2025 · Wk 1	27
Tre Tucker2025 · Wk 14	24

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 40.5; combined
KC implied total: 20.75; favored
DEN implied total: 19.75; underdog
Projected script: Close; tight spread
Pace: 30.4s; seconds / play
Wind: 2 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 61°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 59; 6-game avg
Dropbacks: 35.1; 60% pass
His receptions: 2.8; projected this game
Red-zone trips: 3.8; 6-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: +3.0; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share59%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %59%

Of the team's dropbacks

Target share13%

Of all his team's targets

Air-yards share25%

Of the team's intended air yards

RZ target share7%

Inside the opponent's 20

Targets / g3.8

Targets per game

Yards / route run2.6

Receiving yards per route run

aDOT18.7

Average depth of target, in yards

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: Not Specified
Game status: Ir
Snap share, last game: 63%
Games missed this season: 2

If Thornton sits

If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.

Next up

Andrew ArmstrongWR · 64% of the snaps

Where his work goes

Emmett JohnsonRB+1.8targets
Jalen RoyalsWR+1.8targets
Cyrus AllenWR+1targets
Noah GrayTE+1targets

Based on 2 games without him

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

0 posted · 8 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Receiving Yards	No line posted yet
Receptions	No line posted yet
Anytime TD	No line posted yet
Longest Reception	No line posted yet
1st TD	No line posted yet
2+ TDs	No line posted yet
Last TD	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 760 games+0.2
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Tyquan Thornton's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Tyquan Thornton's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Tyquan Thornton's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Tyquan Thornton's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.