nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 8 · SUNDAY

Chiefs vs Broncos Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Nov 1 · 1:25 PM PT
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Conditions
Outdoor · 61F, 2 mph wind, clouds

Largest gaps vs typical error

  1. Evan EngramDEN · RECEPTIONS
    Line
    2.5
    Nuvela projection
    1.6
    Gap
    −0.9
  2. Evan EngramDEN · RECEIVING YARDS
    Line
    19.5
    Nuvela projection
    15.2
    Gap
    In line with market
  3. Bo NixDEN · RUSHING YARDS
    Line
    16.5
    Nuvela projection
    18.1
    Gap
    In line with market
  4. Patrick MahomesKC · PASS + RUSH YARDS
    Line
    240.5
    Nuvela projection
    233.8
    Gap
    In line with market
  5. Patrick MahomesKC · RUSHING YARDS
    Line
    13.5
    Nuvela projection
    12.6
    Gap
    In line with market

The game in numbers

  • 115.6Projected play count
  • +0.7Pass rate over expected
  • 13thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Chiefs20.520.2−0.3
Broncos20.520.7+0.2
Game total40.540.9+0.4

The Chiefs carry 60% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

140 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props136

Chiefs · Away7 players

RECEPTIONS
3.5MARKET−0.9GAP2.6Nuvela projection
Season range 1-6RUSH + REC YARDS
111.5MARKET−6.2In line with market105.3Nuvela projection
Season range 57-191RUSH ATTEMPTS
19.5MARKET−0.6In line with market18.9Nuvela projection
Season range 14-24RECEIVING YARDS
19.5MARKET−1.4In line with market18.1Nuvela projection
Season range 2-61RUSHING YARDS
87.5MARKET−0.3In line with market87.2Nuvela projection
Season range 36-177LONGEST RUSH
17.5MARKET+10.6WIDE28.1Nuvela
Season range 7-76LONGEST RECEPTION
11.5MARKET−4.5WIDE7.0Nuvela
Season range 2-221ST TD
20%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
No range for this marketANYTIME TD
59%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Season range 0-2LAST TD
20%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
No range for this market
Depth and touchdown only · 8 players · 24 props

Broncos · Home4 players

Depth and touchdown only · 8 players · 24 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
40.5MARKET+0.4GAP40.940.9
Season range 23-63
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
KC by 1.0MARKET+1.5GAP0.5DEN by 0.5
Season range 3-21

Team props2

Chiefs · Away1 market

ChiefsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
20.5MARKET−0.3GAP20.2Nuvela
Season range 3-33

Broncos · Home1 market

BroncosTEAM TOTAL POINTS
20.5MARKET+0.2GAP20.7Nuvela
Season range 10-30