nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 8 · SUNDAY

Raiders vs Jets Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Nov 1 · 10:00 AM PT
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor · 60F, 3 mph wind, clouds

Largest gaps vs typical error

  1. Michael MayerLV · RECEPTIONS
    Line
    2.5
    Nuvela projection
    3.5
    Gap
    +1.0
  2. Tre TuckerLV · RECEIVING YARDS
    Line
    47.5
    Nuvela projection
    53.8
    Gap
    In line with market
  3. Mike Washington Jr.LV · RUSHING YARDS
    Line
    30.5
    Nuvela projection
    27.1
    Gap
    In line with market
  4. Kirk CousinsLV · PASSING YARDS
    Line
    239.5
    Nuvela projection
    244.0
    Gap
    In line with market
  5. Geno SmithNYJ · PASSING YARDS
    Line
    225.5
    Nuvela projection
    229.3
    Gap
    In line with market

The game in numbers

  • 120.9Projected play count
  • -2.8Pass rate over expected
  • 10thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Raiders22.523.6+1.1
Jets23.524.0+0.5
Game total45.547.6+2.1

The Raiders carry 69% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

142 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props138

Raiders · Away7 players

RECEPTIONS
3.5MARKET+0.9GAP4.4Nuvela projection
Season range 3-8RUSH ATTEMPTS
13.5MARKET+1.1In line with market14.6Nuvela projection
Season range 8-23RECEIVING YARDS
28.5MARKET+1.7In line with market30.2Nuvela projection
Season range 15-68RUSHING YARDS
49.5MARKET+1.3In line with market50.8Nuvela projection
Season range 15-102RUSH + REC YARDS
82.5MARKET−1.5In line with market81.0Nuvela projection
Season range 58-147LONGEST RECEPTION
12.5MARKET+9.5WIDE22.0Nuvela
Season range 7-31LONGEST RUSH
12.5MARKET−3.5WIDE9.0Nuvela
Season range 4-191ST TD
16%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
No range for this marketANYTIME TD
52%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Season range 0-2LAST TD
14%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
No range for this market
Depth and touchdown only · 5 players · 15 props

Jets · Home7 players

Depth and touchdown only · 8 players · 24 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
45.5MARKET+2.1GAP47.647.7
Season range 29-63
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
NYJ by 1.5MARKET+1.1GAP0.4NYJ by 0.4
Season range 3-28

Team props2

Raiders · Away1 market

RaidersTEAM TOTAL POINTS
22.5MARKET+1.1GAP23.6Nuvela
Season range 17-35

Jets · Home1 market

JetsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
23.5MARKET+0.5GAP24.0Nuvela
Season range 12-25