TE · New York Jets#85
Mason Taylor
Updated
Mason Taylor's receiving yards line is 17.5 for Week 7 vs Miami Dolphins (Sun, Oct 25); the projection is 16.1. 6 of 7 markets posted.
vs Miami Dolphins · Week 7
- Line
- 17.5
- Receiving Yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 16.1
- this week
- Difference
- −1.4
- −8%
- Lines checked Stale: our last odds check is over an hour old, with a kickoff inside a day
- Markets posted
- 6 of 7
- Line since open
- −5.0, from 22.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 17.5 receiving yards
Miami gives up 76 receiving yards a game to tight ends this season, the 4th most in the league. The doubt is a low 39.5 game total.
Line17.5Down 5 since it opened at 22.5 on Wednesday. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.
Over
Why he could top 17.5 receiving yards
- 29thOF 32Miami gives up 76 receiving yards a game to tight ends this season, the 4th most in the league. The league average is 54.
- 32ndOF 32Miami lets tight ends catch 92% of their targets this season, the highest in the league. The league average is 72%.
- −5SINCE WEDThe line has already dropped 5 since it opened at 22.5, so part of the case for less is already in the price.
Under
Why he could fall short of 17.5
- 39.5TOTALThe game total is 39.5, so fewer drives to throw on.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
New York Jets is without tight end Connor Hulstein, so the position’s targets stay with Taylor. Across from him, Miami is missing two linebackers and one safety, the players who usually cover tight ends.
TaylorNo injury designation
Around himNew York Jets
5 of 28 touch Taylor
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRConnor HulsteinTELeaves the tight end targets to him
- IRArian SmithWRFrees targets
Off the report this week
- ClearedAdonai MitchellWR · was Out in Wk 6Back on the field
- ClearedKenyon SadiqTE · was Q in Wk 6Back on the field
- ClearedOmar Cooper Jr.WR · was Q in Wk 6Back on the field
Across from himMiami Dolphins
6 of 19 touch Taylor
This week
- OutReese TaylorDB · quadricepCovers tight ends
- QuestionableKyle LouisLB · kneeCovers tight ends
- QuestionableWillie Gay Jr.LB · illnessCovers tight ends
Out long term · already in his recent games
- PUPDarrell Baker Jr.CBIn pass coverage
- IRRonnie HarrisonLBCovers tight ends
- IRTrey MooreLBCovers tight ends
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2819ShowHide
NYJ · New York Jets
28 listed- Joseph OssaiDE · ankleOut
- Max MitchellOT · concussionOut
- Breece HallRB · quadricepQuestionable
- Dylan ParhamG · kneeQuestionable
- Kene NwangwuRB · kneeQuestionable
- Anez CooperG · Not specifiedIR
- Arian SmithWR · Not specifiedIR
- Braiden McGregorDE · Not specifiedIR
- Chip TrayanumRB · Not specifiedIR
- Connor HulsteinTE · Not specifiedIR
- David OnyemataDT · Not specifiedIR
- Dominic RichardsonRB · Not specifiedIR
- Francisco MauigoaLB · quadricepIR
- Kingsley JonathanDE · Not specifiedIR
- Marcelino McCrary-BallLB · Not specifiedIR
- Mykal WalkerLB · Not specifiedIR
- Tre BrownCB · Not specifiedIR
- Tyler BaronDE · Not specifiedPUP
- VJ PayneSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Adonai MitchellWR · Last listed Wk 6: Out (finger)Cleared
- D'Angelo PondsCB · Last listed Wk 1: Doubtful (calf)—
- Dane BeltonSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)Cleared
- Kenyon SadiqTE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (concussion)Cleared
- Kingsley EnagbareLB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
- Minkah FitzpatrickFS · Last listed Wk 3: Out (groin)—
- Omar Cooper Jr.WR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Tim PatrickWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (groin)—
- Will McDonald IVDE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (calf)—
MIA · Miami Dolphins
19 listed- Reese TaylorDB · quadricepOut
- Rob Beal Jr.DE · hamstringDoubtful
- Kyle LouisLB · kneeQuestionable
- Willie Gay Jr.LB · illnessQuestionable
- Carter WarrenOT · Not specifiedIR
- Cole TurnerTE · Not specifiedIR
- Darrell Baker Jr.CB · Not specifiedPUP
- De'Von AchaneRB · Not specifiedIR
- Rene KongaDE · Not specifiedIR
- Ronnie HarrisonLB · Not specifiedIR
- Trey MooreLB · Not specifiedIR
- Caleb DouglasWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (ankle)—
- Chop RobinsonLB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (concussion)—
- Jackson WoodardLB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ankle)—
- Jaylen WrightRB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—
- Julius BrentsCB · Last listed Wk 3: Q (knee)—
- Justin JolyTE · Last listed Wk 5: Out (concussion)—
- Kenneth GrantDT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (toe)—
- Tucker AddingtonLS · Last listed Wk 2: Q (shoulder)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 3
- Consensus line
- 17.5
- yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 16.1
- −1.4 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 24
- regular season
- Average
- 18.3
- +0.8 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 28.5 | 100%2/2 | 100%2/2 |
| Last 5 | 28.5 | 75%3/4 | 75%3/4 |
| Season | 24 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last season | 21 | 77%10/13 | 23%3/13 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 4
- Average
- 18.3
- yards
- Median
- 24
- yards
- Above 17.5
- 2 of 3
- 67% of the sample
- vs the full 4
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ TEN | -2 | 21.5 | −23.5 |
| Week 2 | vs GB | — | 17.5 | — |
| Week 5 | vs CLE | 24 | 12.5 | +11.5 |
| Week 6 | @ NE | 33 | 13.5 | +19.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Snap% | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | @ NE | 55% | 6 | 4 | 33 | 9 | 0 |
| Wk 5 | vs CLE | 59% | 3 | 3 | 24 | 9 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | vs GB | 46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wk 1 | @ TEN | 66% | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 | 0 |
Comparable players vs Miami
Other tight ends who faced Miami this season, and how they did against their line.
tight ends went over their line vs Miami
- T.J. HockensonMIN · Week 4Line 38.5119Rec ydsOver 38.5Over+80.5
- Travis KelceKC · Week 3Line 52.559Rec ydsOver 52.5Over+6.5
- Michael MayerLV · Week 1Line 41.532Rec ydsUnder 41.5Under−9.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Miami Dolphins defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Miami Dolphins actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 8 | 7.7 | 20th of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 93% | 72% | 32nd of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 76.2 | 54.2 | 29th of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 9.5 | 7 | 31st of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 6.8 | 6.1 | 22nd of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 4 | 4.8 | 11th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 9% | 11% | 9th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 18.8 | 23rd of 32 |
| RB | 26.1 | 29th of 32 |
| WR | 23.2 | 2nd of 32 |
| TEhis position | 19.8 | 29th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Cade Otton2025 · Wk 17 | 33 |
| Kyle Pitts2025 · Wk 8 | 59 |
| T.J. Hockenson2026 · Wk 4 | 119 |
| Harold Fannin Jr.2025 · Wk 7 | 36 |
| Michael Mayer2026 · Wk 1 | 32 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 39.5
- combined
- NYJ implied total
- 22
- favored
- MIA implied total
- 17.5
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 31.6s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 1 mph
- Clear
- Conditions
- 66°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 58.2
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 34
- 59% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 2.3
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −3.8
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- Last listed Wk 4: Out (thumb)
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 55%
- Games missed this season
- 2
If Taylor sits
If a tight end sits, the next tight end gets the routes; the targets spread to the receivers and the backs.
Next up
Jeremy RuckertTE · 28% of the snaps
Where his work goes
- Isaiah WilliamsWR+2.7targets
- Kenyon SadiqTE+2targets
Based on 3 games without him
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 17.5 | 16.1Tank01, median-adjusted | −1.4 | 4 of 5 incl. 2025 | 22.5 | −5.0 |
| Receptions | 2.5 | 2.8Nuvela projection | +0.3 | 3 of 5 incl. 2025 | 2.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 19% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 19% | level |
| Longest Reception | 8.5 | 11.6Nuvela | +3.1 | 4 of 5 incl. 2025 | 10.5 | −2.0 |
| 1st TD | 5% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 5% | level |
| Last TD | 6% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 6% | level |
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Wed 8:07 PM22.5opened
- Thu 9:59 AM21.5−1.0
- Thu 3:59 PM20.5−1.0
- Fri 10:03 PM21.5+1.0
- Sat 11:01 AM20.5−1.0
- Sat 1:01 PM17.5−3.0
Opened 22.5, now 17.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 730 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 730 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 20.5 | −105 | −125 |
| BetOnline | 17.5 | −114 | −114 |
| BetRivers | 17.5 | −122 | −118 |
| DraftKings | 17.5 | −114 | −110 |
| FanDuel | 17.5 | −113 | −113 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
